Factoid
I think there has been a little bit of a rush to judgment with Kevin Kolb. Is he ever going to be an above-average starting quarterback? Is he worth a first-round pick? Is he even worth a second-round choice?
Why?
The Eagles selected Kolb in the second round four years ago, and as far as I can tell, he really hasn’t done anything to increase his value. He’s sat and presumably learned for the last four years, but he hasn’t really done anything on the field to indicate he’s ready to follow the career path of Matt Hasselbeck or Mark Brunell (backups behind Brett Favre who became solid starters elsewhere).
Kolb has actually gotten a chance to play the last two years, and what he’s done hasn’t been particularly impressive. Most notably, he’s turned the ball over way too much – 10 interceptions in only 285 passing attempts.
Every few weeks we’ll see stories about trying to gauge exactly what Kolb is worth – whether it’s multiple second-round picks or whatever. And stories will detail whether its Arizona, Miami or Seattle that’s most likely to sign him. But keep in mind that many of those stories originate in Philadelphia – it’s in the interest of the Eagles to get those stories out there, trying to pump up his value.
We’re not sure where Kolb will end up or how successful he’ll be. But based on the 285 passes he’s thrown the last two years, we think there’s a chance that a couple of years down the road, the Eagles will look awfully smart for being able to get rid of him at the right time for the right price.
Note: for all of the charts below, stats include Kolb and all quarterbacks who have attempted more passes than him in the last two seasons.
INTERCEPTION PERCENTAGE, 2009-2010
Int
1.56% Michael Vick
1.61% Tom Brady
1.77% Aaron Rodgers
1.90% Ben Roethlisberger
2.02% Kyle Orton
2.10% Tony Romo
2.14% Philip Rivers
2.23% Joe Flacco
2.25% Matt Ryan
2.33% Matt Schaub
2.41% Vince Young
2.44% Matt Cassel
2.45% Shaun Hill
2.54% Sam Bradford
2.64% Peyton Manning
2.73% Kurt Warner
2.73% Donovan McNabb
2.75% Jason Campbell
2.82% Drew Brees
2.83% David Garrard
2.92% Brett Favre
3.01% Jimmy Clausen
3.08% Alex Smith
3.14% Carson Palmer
3.14% Josh Freeman
3.24% Kerry Collins
3.26% Bruce Gradkowski
3.51% Chad Henne
3.51% Kevin Kolb
3.65% Matt Hasselbeck
3.72% Eli Manning
3.74% Ryan Fitzpatrick
3.77% Jon Kitna
3.79% Mark Sanchez
3.93% Derek Anderson
4.26% Jay Cutler
4.44% Matthew Stafford
5.32% Jake Delhomme
YARDS PER PASS ATTEMPT, 2009-2010
YPA
8.73 Philip Rivers
8.41 Ben Roethlisberger
8.22 Aaron Rodgers
8.06 Michael Vick
7.98 Tony Romo
7.90 Matt Schaub
7.85 Tom Brady
7.69 Drew Brees
7.66 Eli Manning
7.57 Donovan McNabb
7.55 Vince Young
7.55 Brett Favre
7.44 Jon Kitna
7.36 Peyton Manning
7.32 Joe Flacco
7.32 Kurt Warner
7.18 Jason Campbell
7.18 David Garrard
7.18 Kyle Orton
7.03 Jay Cutler
6.95 Josh Freeman
6.80 Kevin Kolb
6.73 Bruce Gradkowski
6.71 Carson Palmer
6.62 Ryan Fitzpatrick
6.61 Alex Smith
6.58 Mark Sanchez
6.57 Chad Henne
6.48 Matt Ryan
6.47 Matt Hasselbeck
6.41 Matt Cassel
6.36 Shaun Hill
6.17 Kerry Collins
6.14 Jake Delhomme
5.95 Sam Bradford
5.92 Matthew Stafford
5.80 Derek Anderson
5.21 Jimmy Clausen
PASSER RATING, 2009-2010
Rating
103.1 Tom Brady
103.0 Philip Rivers
102.3 Aaron Rodgers
100.0 Michael Vick
99.1 Drew Brees
99.0 Ben Roethlisberger
96.8 Tony Romo
95.6 Peyton Manning
95.4 Matt Schaub
93.2 Kurt Warner
92.2 Brett Favre
91.2 Joe Flacco
89.1 Eli Manning
88.9 Jon Kitna
88.8 Vince Young
87.2 Kyle Orton
86.6 Matt Ryan
86.5 David Garrard
85.6 Jason Campbell
84.7 Donovan McNabb
82.9 Carson Palmer
82.2 Josh Freeman
81.8 Alex Smith
80.9 Jay Cutler
80.9 Matt Cassel
80.8 Shaun Hill
80.4 Kevin Kolb
77.7 Ryan Fitzpatrick
76.5 Sam Bradford
75.3 Chad Henne
74.9 Kerry Collins
74.2 Matt Hasselbeck
73.3 Bruce Gradkowski
70.2 Mark Sanchez
67.1 Matthew Stafford
60.7 Jake Delhomme
58.4 Jimmy Clausen
57.4 Derek Anderson
RATIO OF TOUCHDOWNS TO INTERCEPTIONS, 2009-2010
TD Int
64 17 Tom Brady
22 6 Michael Vick
58 18 Aaron Rodgers
58 22 Philip Rivers
43 17 Ben Roethlisberger
37 16 Tony Romo
50 23 Matt Ryan
46 22 Joe Flacco
67 33 Drew Brees
66 33 Peyton Manning
20 10 Vince Young
53 27 Matt Schaub
41 21 Kyle Orton
43 23 Matt Cassel
26 14 Kurt Warner
44 26 Brett Favre
38 25 David Garrard
21 14 Shaun Hill
58 39 Eli Manning
35 24 Josh Freeman
32 22 Alex Smith
36 25 Donovan McNabb
33 23 Jason Campbell
47 33 Carson Palmer
16 12 Jon Kitna
32 25 Ryan Fitzpatrick
20 16 Kerry Collins
18 15 Sam Bradford
50 42 Jay Cutler
11 10 Kevin Kolb
11 10 Bruce Gradkowski
19 21 Matthew Stafford
29 33 Mark Sanchez
29 34 Matt Hasselbeck
27 33 Chad Henne
10 20 Derek Anderson
10 25 Jake Delhomme
3 9 Jimmy Clausen
—Ian Allan
- Comments [13]
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Posted by DAVID GARRICK | May. 26 at 04:22 AM
I think this analysis is off the mark. Kolb is worth a high pick or more because he's shown potential by winning NFC Offensive Player of the Week twice in just a handful of starts. He's still a young player who's learning, but teams have seen enough to conclude that he's less likely to be a bust than Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton or even Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert. That's why teams like Arizona and Seattle will probably give up a 1st-round pick or two 2nd-round picks for him. Instead of comparing him to Rodgers and Brady, compare him to Ryan, Flacco, Bradford and Sanchez in their first 10 NFL starts. How does he stack up in that comparison?
Posted by IAN ALLAN | May. 26 at 06:04 AM
Over the last three years, among players who've attempted over 300 passes, Kolb has thrown more interceptions (per attempt) than everyone except Gus Frerotte and Matthew Stafford. Here's what I've seen in his brief work so far. 2009: has a big game against a really bad Kansas City secondary and puts up 300-plus as well in a blowout loss against the Saints (throwing often because the Eagles were way behind). 2010: ineffective (then injured) in opener against Green Bay, poor in losses to Titans and Cowboys, decent in 27-24 win at San Francisco and played well in 31-17 win at home against Atlanta. I don't see enough there to be excited about him.
Posted by IAN ALLAN | May. 26 at 07:47 AM
OK. Fair enough. If you believe that Gabbert (and I throw in Locker as well) are worth top-10 picks, then so is Kolb. But I don't believe either Gabbert or Locker should have been selected in the top 10. With both of those quarterbacks, I see big holes and lots of risk. I would not have selected either of those guys with top-20 picks.
Posted by DAVID GARRICK | May. 26 at 08:46 AM
Ian, I'd like to see how Kolb's seven NFL starts compare to the first seven starts of some other current players. I think that might give us a better picture of how he compares. I'm pretty sure Kolb's stats in those games are superior to guys like Flacco, Ryan and Bradford. But those guys were forced to start immediately, so I'd be particularly interested to see how Kolb compares to other guys who had time to sit and learn like he did, such as Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees, Chad Henne, David Garrard, Philip Rivers etc.
Posted by IAN ALLAN | May. 26 at 09:17 AM
If you would like to put together a chart showing Kolb versus whatever quarterbacks, I will be happy to look it over. If you want to write it up, we'll stick it on the site. I will throw out these numbers: Kolb: first 314 pass attempts = 14 interceptions. I will compare to a couple of Kolb-type prospects. Hasselbeck in first 321 attempts with Seattle threw 8 interceptions. Brunell in first 346 attempts with expansion Jaguars threw 7 interceptions. Rivers (who sat for a while) threw 10 interceptions in first 490 attempts. I have doubts about Kolb's decision making.
Posted by IAN ALLAN | May. 26 at 09:38 AM
I will agree with Joe's argument about quarterbacks. In today's game, you win with a franchise quarterback. That's the key ingredient. And when you look at it in that way, it makes sense to gamble on quarterbacks, even when you know there's a chance they'll flop. But in my heart -- if I were running a team -- I would be extremely nervous about Locker, Ponder and Gabbert. When you got with Dalton or Kaepernick in the early second, then it's different to me.
Posted by Brian Grzybowski | May. 26 at 04:11 PM
A couple of things: First, I'd like to point out what a great system for quarterbacks is in place in Philadelphia. It seems to make any QB look great for short stretches, even longer ones. Remember 2002 when McNabb got hurt so they sent Koy Detmer out and he starts crushing the 49ers (the 49ers won their division that year) but he gets hurt so they throw A.J. Feeley in and he looks like a HOFer ripping off 4 straight wins in pretty impressive fashion. In 2006 Jeff Garcia stepped in a won 5 games in a row against very good teams (including 3 divisional opponents). I think all of these guys would be called "Journeymen Quarterbacks" but they looked like superstars in Andy Reid's offense. The most constant QB in that offense, of course, has been Donovan McNabb. I think Kolb's early career numbers compare fairly well with McNabb's early career numbers...but outside of the Andy Reid system McNabb looks plain awful. He's only 34. I know he's taken a lot of sacks, but his numbers were serviceable in 2009 and he stunk the joint out enough last year to get benched in favor of Rex Grossman! I don't think that Kolb can survive outside of that system. That system is a system of short dink-and dunks to running backs and tight ends mixed in with the occasional deep throw off play-action down the right or left side. If you ever read an Eagles play-by-play it goes something like "Pass short right. Pass short right. Draw play. Pass short left. Run right. Pass short right. Pass deep right. Pass short left." But what I noticed about Kolb is that when a play breaks down HE THROWS IT IN THE MIDDLE. I think it's because he has a rapport with his Tight End and when a play gets blown up he goes looking for his safety blanket...the trouble is that Tight Ends run a lot of plays that direct them towards the middle of the field if they aren't the primary target. I swear I've seen more linebackers do the hands-on-either-side-of-their-head dance because they missed an interception against Kolb than any other QB per game. Kolb has also only appeared in 19 games (about 8 games worth of stats) and has fumbled 9 times, losing 5. I just don't think that the couple of good games, in terms of stas, that Kolb has put up can outweigh the obvious and quantifiable flaws that he has. How many QBs have put up a few good games only to be exposed over time? Ryan Fitzpatrick? Billy Volek? It's a long list. I'm also not a big fan of the "Quarterbacks are so important that you have to draft one in the first round" argument. I agree that the QB position is the most important, but if you miss on one in the first round then it really, really, really hurts your team for a very, very long time. Just like in fantasy football you have to make that first rounder count. If you're the 49ers and you could re-do the 2005 draft would you rather take Alex Smith number 1 or Logan Mankins in the first and Matt Cassel in the seventh like the Patriots did? How many QBs has Washington drafted in the first or second round in the last 20 years? It seems ridiculous to talk yourself into a bad QB just because it is the most important position. You'd think it would be the opposite.
Posted by IAN ALLAN | May. 27 at 03:35 AM
I liked the points Brian made. It reminds me about the case of A.J. Feeley . When Donovan McNabb got hurt, Feeley went 4-1 as a starter. The Dolphins gave up a second-round pick for him, only to find out that Feeley couldn't play. Now, Feeley wasn't quite Kevin Kolb. His numbers weren't as good, and he was just a fifth-round pick. But there are some parallels there.
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | May. 27 at 03:43 AM
I think Kolb has started 7 games. Twice he has been named player of the week.
Posted by IAN ALLAN | May. 27 at 05:05 AM
@Dave: point taken. I am updating my draft board. Now projecting Kolb to win the Player of the Week Award 4.6 times this year.
Posted by Brian Grzybowski | May. 27 at 06:06 AM
Not to beat a dead horse, but I think Joe is reinforcing my point. Let me reiterate my idea because I think its getting lost in my long-winded note. I feel it is better to take a sure thing in the first round and wait until you know a QB is a sure thing rather than blowing a first round pick on a 50/50 or worse guy. If I'm reading Joe's note right then he is saying that Miami, Carolina, and Buffalo would have been better off pursuing JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, David Carr, Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, Vince Young, etc., etc. I think what he's saying is that you have to gamble on these guys because the position is that important. I'm saying that you don't. I'm saying that if there is any doubt about a QB then teams should just walk away and address a position that offers a more guaranteed option. I think that blowing first round picks is the one sure path to a long string of losing records. I think if you just continue to lay a solid foundation then eventually the QB position can sort itself out. Looking at the three teams that Joe uses as an example simply reinforces that idea. Miami has been to the playoffs with two QBs since Dan Marino retired. Neither of those QBs was drafted by Miami. Jay Fiedler was a journeyman that, I think, was undrafted. Chad Pennington was drafted by the Jets and has a notoriously week arm. The QBs that Miami has drafted recently, Chad Henne (2nd) and John Beck (2nd), appear to be blown picks. Carolina spent a first round pick on Kerry Collins back in 1995 but he had some personal problems that should have been flushed out. The only other high pick that Carolina has used on a QB was a 2nd rounder for Jimmy Clausen that appears to be a bust. The only guy to take Carolina to a Super Bowl? Undrafted free-agent Jake Delhomme. Since the retirement of Jim Kelly, the Buffalo Bills have used 2 high picks on QBs: Todd Collins and J.P. Losman. Losman isn't, apparently, even good enough to be an NFL back-up. Buffalo drafted CJ Spiller in the first round last year so it's doubtful that they could draft any position in the first round and be successful. Instead of blowing first round picks on QBs, the Saints spent those picks on quality players and when the opportunity arose for them to get Brees, the team was ready to win. If Brees had gone with Door #2 and landed in Miami it would have sucked for him and not done much for the team- different system and too many bad drafts. He wasn't going to turn Ted Ginn and Greg Camarillo into superstars. David Digregorio writes on here a lot and I respect his opinions...which is why I know he won't mind me busting his chops a little by pointing out that Rex Grossman has been named the FedEx Air Player of The Week on 3 occasions. He's even better than Kolb!
Posted by John Evans | May. 27 at 11:19 AM
I have never been impressed with Kolbs decision making. He has the ability to throw for a bunch of tds and yards in a pass happy offense going up against poor defenses or defenses with a lead...but he will turn the ball over. Comparing Kolb to a rookie is just silly. He should be a heck of alot better than a rookie if he has four years to prepare. But hey...Schaub wasn't incredible in ATL...but that turned out pretty well.
Posted by Brian Grzybowski | May. 27 at 12:21 PM
I thought about looking for parallels with Schaub and here's the thing: in his early years in Atlanta, Schaub had a much lower completion percentage but was downright miserly for a young guy in terms of interceptions. I think the disparity in completion percentage can be ascribed to two things- in Andy Reid's offense there are a ton of short flips to RBs and TEs that inflates a passer stats (Brian Westbrook has 442 career receptions and has never played a 16 game season) and I think Schaub is good about tossing the ball into the stands when he doesn't see anything he likes. In those situations, as I mentioned above, Kolb seems to chuck the ball into the middle of the field resulting in more completions but also more turnovers.