Factoid
Where did we all go so wrong on Cam Newton? He was supposed to struggle. He was supposed to need a few years to develop.
He didn’t play in a pro-style offense at Auburn, and he played only one season of major college football. With the way rookie quarterbacks have tended to be hit-or-miss, it made sense (seemed to make sense, any way) that Newton would need a couple of years before he could become an adequate passer. I even suggested that Carolina might finish with more yards rushing than passing this year.
And Newton seemed to support that line of reasoning when he completed 42 percent of his passes in the preseason.
But after back-to-back games with more than 400 yards, it’s becoming apparent that Newton is going to be a lot more productive than anybody realized this year. Not that he’ll necessarily have many more games with more than 300 yards, but he’ll complete some passes and throw some touchdowns. Carolina might have an above-average passing offense in terms of yards the rest of the way.
Should we have seen this coming?
The one thing I can point to in hindsight is Newton’s success at Auburn. While there, he averaged more yards per pass attempt in his final college season than any other quarterback selected in the first round in the last 15 years. I guess we all should have given that more weight (he was playing in an unconventional offense, so it didn’t strike me as particularly meaningful).
Newton compiled a 124.9 passer rating in his final year at Auburn. That comes in No. 2 behind that group of first-round quarterbacks. (And that’s using the pro passer rating, not the college version.)
FIRST-ROUND QBs WITH BEST PASSER RATINGS, 1997-2011
Using stats of final college season.
Rate Pct TD-Int Year
125.5 67.5 32-4 2005 Alex Smith
124.9 66.1 30-7 2011 Cam Newton
118.3 72.0 34-7 2004 Philip Rivers
117.7 73.6 28-7 1999 Daunte Culpepper
116.9 64.7 42-7 2002 David Carr
115.7 69.6 20-7 2005 Jason Campbell
115.3 58.8 30-7 1999 Akili Smith
114.5 67.4 38-12 2000 Chad Pennington
114.3 67.8 28-8 2007 JaMarcus Russell
113.9 69.1 37-10 2004 Ben Roethlisberger
113.0 65.8 34-10 2009 Mark Sanchez
112.7 67.8 21-5 2010 Tim Tebow
110.5 62.5 22-5 1999 Donovan McNabb
109.2 65.2 26-10 2006 Vince Young
107.6 65.7 28-8 2006 Matt Leinart
107.4 56.0 33-10 1998 Ryan Leaf
106.4 67.4 30-10 2003 Byron Leftwich
105.8 66.1 24-8 2005 Aaron Rodgers
105.0 72.3 36-15 1999 Tim Couch
104.4 61.9 37-7 2007 Brady Quinn
102.3 63.2 33-10 2003 Carson Palmer
101.8 58.2 23-10 1999 Cade McNown
101.7 61.4 25-10 2009 Matthew Stafford
101.1 60.2 36-11 1998 Peyton Manning
100.5 62.4 29-10 2004 Eli Manning
99.8 63.5 23-5 2008 Joe Flacco
98.8 57.8 23-5 2002 Joey Harrington
98.3 56.8 17-5 1997 Jim Druckenmiller
94.3 59.5 33-14 2004 J.P. Losman
93.0 61.5 20-8 2011 Christian Ponder
92.8 56.5 2-0 2010 Sam Bradford
91.8 58.6 20-8 2009 Josh Freeman
86.8 53.4 28-10 2003 Kyle Boller
86.2 63.4 16-9 2011 Blaine Gabbert
86.1 59.1 21-9 2006 Jay Cutler
83.9 59.3 31-19 2008 Matt Ryan
82.5 55.4 17-9 2011 Jake Locker
81.1 57.0 22-13 2002 Patrick Ramsey
80.1 54.0 8-6 2001 Michael Vick
78.3 57.1 22-17 2003 Rex Grossman
—Ian Allan
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