24 Hours 'Til Sunday — Andy Richardson
Posted Oct. 07 at 09:33 PM
Perhaps you're wondering how my teams are doing. If I'm going to be giving you advice and all, it would be nice to know my 6 teams aren't currently 0-24. At the same time, nobody wants to hear anyone else prattle on about their teams, so I'll be really quick.
I've got a pair of 4-0 teams (Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Ray Rice, Beanie Wells, Andre Johnson), two 3-1 teams (Drew Brees, Matt Forte, Mike Wallace), and a 2-2 team (Jamaal Charles and Shonn Greene, and that team is headed down) a 1-3 team (Ben Roethlisberger, Chris Johnson, Roddy White). Aaron Hernandez is on every team, of course.
A general statement I'll make: my best teams have big-time quarterbacks, Brees or Stafford. I'm sure there are 0-4 teams out there with those guys, Aaron Rodgers, or Tom Brady on them, but not in any of my leagues. I waited on quarterbacks in two leagues, one where I have Roethlisberger, one where I have Stafford. Looks like a 50-50 proposition, this waiting on quarterbacks thing. If there's a lesson here, it's make sure you get a good one. If that means taking Rodgers, or Brees, or Brady in the first 20 picks, it might be worth it.
Or use your last-rounder on Cam Newton, one of the two.
Cardinals at Vikings: I guess you have to use Beanie Wells, who's questionable, but I'll be checking to make sure he's not a last-minute scratch anyway. Larry Fitzgerald and Adrian Peterson are must-starts. If the Vikings passing offense can have any value this season, this is the game. These teams played a classic here a year ago, maybe Brett Favre's last good game. Uh, if anyone else cares.
Eagles at Bills: Do either of these teams have a defense? I'm not sure they do. So probably, 13-10, right? I think the key starters for both teams are healthy and facing poor defenses, although I'm a little wary of Steve Johnson; as noted in the Weekly, the Eagles seem to do OK against No. 1 wideouts. It's all the other players that are killing them.
Kansas City at Colts: WELL....what have we here. Playoff teams a year ago, one combined win now. That's probably about how many players you want to use from each team, too. Bowe, Addai, maybe a Colts receiver. Maybe.
Seahawks at Giants: This week's suicide pool favorite. The Giants can be kind of an unpredictable team, but the other home teams are either shaky or have already been used, so they really seemed like the only choice if you don't want to pick a road team (and we didn't.). No Brandon Jacobs, so Ahmad Bradshaw should be pretty good. I'm sticking with my Monday answer: Manningham better than Cruz. Seahawks, no Mike Williams, giving Ben Obamana banana nana fo fana and Doug Baldwin some value.
Titans at Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger will limp around, Rashard Mendenhall likely won't, so Isaac Redman should start and play pretty much full time. I thought Redman looked pretty good in the preseason, so I'd start him; in fact, I am, in the league I lost Jamaal Charles. Tough defense, though. Steelers run defense not all that anymore, so Chris Johnson should have a decent game.
Saints at Panthers: I think the Saints offense will do pretty much whatever it wants here. And for Carolina, so will Cam Newton. I'm starting Steve Smith and would start Newton in the league I have him in...except my other quarterback is Brees. Debating starting Shockey over a gimpy Aaron Hernandez, just because I don't trust the Patriots. This could be a nice breakout game for Mark Ingram, because the Panthers simply can't stop the run.
Bengals at Jaguars: Jungle cats versus jungle cats! Arrr! Wait, that's a pirate. Growr! Roar? Sorry. I'm going to set an over-under here of 33. Bengals win 17-16. Should be a real thriller. I'd use MJD, but not with much conviction. Cedric Benson should do OK, and I'll probably use A.J. Green somewhere and Jermaine Gresham over gimpy Aaron Hernandez.
Raiders at Texans: Arguably the league's best running back against statistically the worst run defense (in yards per carry); that makes Arian Foster the week's best play, and has me uninterested in the Texans' passing offense. (The Raiders' passing offense goes without saying.) If you need a spot starter at wideout, you can do better than anyone playing in this game.
Bucs at 49ers: These teams are both 3-1, and I'd call the Bucs the softest 3-1 team in the league but for the 49ers. I still believe San Fran will be a sub-.500 team. Frank Gore calling out the Eagles got some play. Seems unimportant since they won't play again until next year, and the Eagles would have won but for a missed short field goal late; not sure how the team quitting or whatever factored into a rookie missing a short field goal. Anyway. a couple of pretty decent defenses here, and a likely 17-13 type of game.
Chargers at Broncos: Antonio Gates won't play, but Vincent Jackson will. I'm not using him, though, because he's kind of banged up and doesn't have a great history here. Lots of Orton to Lloyd and Decker, lots of Ryan Mathews. And if the Chargers can win this game, they'll be in pretty good shape coming out of their bye next week.
Jets at Patriots: Tough to get a read on this game since they played two games in Foxborough late last year and one was a huge Patriots blowout and the other was a convincing Jets win. I"m using both quarterbacks, Wes Welker even if he does see a lot of Revis Island, and the main tight ends. I am NOT using Aaron Hernandez; I just don't think he's worth the risk playing probably limited snaps with lots of other good options for New England. I would probably use Stevan Ridley in a deep league (remember, I already said I'm forced to use Isaac Redman somewhere) because Danny Woodhead won't play and BenJarvus Green-Ellis isn't that good.
Packers at Falcons: A word on the Favre controversy this week. Nah, forget it. The Packers will clobber the Falcons since they're deep and talented and want to show the world just how good they are. Last week Rodgers was throwing up 42-17 in the fourth quarter and the team tried an onside kick in the first half. I also, however, like the Falcons receivers here, a lot. If this game isn't a wild shootout, well, it will be.
Bears at Lions: If there's a worrying matchup for the Lions, this is it. Julius Peppers knocked Matthew Stafford out of a game last year, and in general the Bears defense can cause problems for opponents. I'm not betting against Stafford or Calvin Johnson, but I am wary. Most likely, though, they'll do nothing for a half and then come through with 2-3 TDs in the second half. For the Bears, uh, Matt Forte and their Defense, and that's about it. Oh, no Hank Williams Jr., so don't start him this week.
By the way, also don't start any Browns, Cowboys, Ravens, Dolphins, Rams (like that'll be tough), or Shanahans. And, enjoy the games.
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Oct. 07 at 11:05 PM
Andy: Despite the "I'd love to see Aaron out there, of course" comment by The Hoodie, I agree that you can't trust him and since it's a 4:15 game, gotta play it safe. He's liable to pull a Corey Dillon again. Here are my lineups (standard scoring, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 FLEX start); Team 1: Wells, F-Jax, Megatron, D. Nelson, Tolbert. I just claimed Ridley and have him on my bench but I'm debating whether to start him over Tolbert @ flex. Candidates to drop to pick up Winslow are Hightower, F. Davis and Flynn (only backup QB on my roster-I have A-Rod). What do you think? Team 2: MJD, Wells, S. Johnson, Manningham, K. Hunter. "Black Wes Welker" on bench. Any under the radar types you like this week that might be FA's? I read an article earlier this week in KC paper that Jackie Battle is in line for more work going forward and Indy is a tasty matchup. Thanks as always, for your help.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Oct. 07 at 11:27 PM
Hey Peter - I see Tolbert and Ridley as similar this week. I think there's a little more risk with Ridley...he's a guy I'd like to have on my roster but would hesitate to start him over a decent option against a bad defense like Tolbert. A little more upside. I would drop Fred Davis, who since Washington isn't playing will probably be available to add again next week if you want. OR I would just drop Flynn and assume Rodgers will get through this week OK and you can add him again if need be. For Team 2, I'm in a similar boat looking for waiver-wire RBs or WRs. I'd consider Battle for a bench spot but wouldn't start him, Indy has actually played decent run defense for most of the year (Blount was just so-so until breaking the touchdown run late), and it's not like Battle is safe to get 20 carries this week or anything. Bench wideouts I'm looking at are guys like Baldwin, Breaston, and my favorite for the week Preston Parker. Slim pickings out there though.
Posted by Johnny Bazzano | Oct. 08 at 12:09 AM
Morning Andy. Thanks for all the great advice every week. I too have Tolbert and am debating starting him or Mark Ingram. Also have steel foot Big Ben and Josh Freeman. Another tough decision. Any help? PPR league by the way... Thanks for you help.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Oct. 08 at 12:16 AM
Breakout week for Ingram. I like him and Freeman this week. Good luck
Posted by Scott Anderson | Oct. 08 at 12:19 AM
Andy, I'm in a real bye bind this week (Hillis & S. Jax on a bye). Start 2 of these 3 winners: McCluster, Moreno, J. Harrison, Battle. Other league, start P. Thomas or Cruz in flex? One more, Raiders/Bears D and Packers/Lions D. Thanks!
Posted by Scott Anderson | Oct. 08 at 12:19 AM
Oh yea, Non-PPR.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Oct. 08 at 01:06 AM
Scott- yowza. Definitely McCluster in one spot. Harrison can't be used, so I guess Moreno rather than 2 KC backs. I would use the Bears and Lions D.
Posted by Russ Neis | Oct. 08 at 12:30 PM
My RB depth is way below average. Thomas, Mendenhall, Choice, McGahee and Lynch. My WR is pretty solid with Welker, White, and Steve Johnson plus I can only start 2WR. You think it be a fair trade to ask for McFadden to give up Welker?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Oct. 08 at 09:37 PM
Russ - McFadden has more value, there aren't a lot of players worth more than him right now. I guess if the other guy is really hurting at wideout and can put a good running back in McFadden's spot he might consider it. Maybe offer Welker and some running back for McFadden and some lesser wideout. It definitely looks like you need another starter, so if the McFadden offer didn't work I'd just make it known that Welker is available for a top running back and see what you can get.
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Oct. 09 at 01:47 AM
Andy: In the league I'm using Hunter @ flex, BA FA'a are Floyd & Crayton. With Gates out again and V-Jax possibly limited, do you like either better than Hunter? CSN Bay Area reported this morning that Gore would play 2/3 of snaps and Hunter 1/3. Thanks.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Oct. 09 at 02:17 AM
I like floyd more
Posted by Ryan Osgood | Oct. 09 at 02:44 AM
Andy! I need you to make up my mind for me. My options for my WR3 are: D. Moore, B Jacoby, V. Cruz, N. Burleson or Antonio Brown...any thoghts?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Oct. 09 at 05:01 AM
Uh, too late. Fifteen minutes before kickoff won't do it. I would have used Jacoby or Burleson. Hope you picked well.
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