Dead Colt bounce
Posted Oct. 27 at 01:49 PM
The Colts gave up 62 points at New Orleans. They seemingly hardly showed up, letting the Saints, er, “march” up and down the field.
But does that mean the Colts are now just a little more than a speedbump, who’ll be giving up 35-38 points per game the rest of the way? Or maybe it’s the opposite: as poorly as they played last week, they’ll practice harder and play harder in their upcoming game against the Titans.
We’ve been down this road many time before, of course. Below is the list of the 30 previous teams that gave up 55 or more points in a game. It shows how they did in their NEXT game. Did they get blown out? Or did they play much better?
The numbers suggest that it’s far more like Indianapolis will improve. I think stockbrokers might call it a “dead cat bounce”.
Nevertheless, the last 30 teams in the same position as the Colts actually went 18-12 in their next games. And they allowed an average of only 21.3 points in those games.
So purely off the numbers, you wouldn’t expect that the Titans would effortlessly roll to a big win when these teams play on Sunday. The Colts are up to a 9-point underdog in this game, and I believe the handicappers would describe that as “good line value”.
DEAD CAT BOUNCE
How teams giving up 55 points have fared in their next games in the last 25 years. List does not include about four teams who gave up 55-plus in the final week of the season.
1976 Falcons L 20-24 vs. Green Bay
1977 Bills W 24-20 at New England
1977 Cardinals L 7-27 at N.Y. Giants
1978 Jets W 31-21 at Denver
1979 Jets W 31-10 vs. Detroit
1980 49ers L 17-31 vs. L.A. Rams
1980 Packers L 3-22 vs. Houston
1981 Raiders W 32-31 at Seattle
1983 Oilers W 27-17 at Detroit
1983 Buccaneers L 24-27 at Dallas (OT)
1985 Buccaneers W 16-13 vs. Detroit (OT)
1988 Broncos W 17-11 vs. Kansas City
1989 Buccaneers L 31-42 vs. Cleveland
1989 Oilers L 20-24 vs. Cleveland
1990 Browns W 13-10 vs. Atlanta
1991 Falcons W 43-7 vs. Tampa Bay
1992 Falcons W 30-28 vs. L.A. Rams
1993 Lions W 20-14 at Chicago
1996 Falcons W 17-15 vs. New Orleans
1997 Bears W 20-3 vs. Buffalo
2000 Chargers L 7-21 vs. Denver
2003 Saints L 13-19 at Carolina
2004 Falcons W 41-28 at Denver
2004 Browns L 15-42 vs. New England
2007 Lions W 37-27 vs. Chicago
2007 Bills L 14-36 at Jacksonville
2008 Cardinals W 41-17 vs. Buffalo
2009 Titans W 30-13 vs. Jacksonville
2010 Redskins W 19-16 at Tennessee (OT)
2010 Broncos L 16-24 vs. San Francisco (London)
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