Ian Allan
Periodically, I like to go through the schedule and forecast each game. It gives an idea of which teams will wind up in the playoffs and perhaps peak late in the year.
As a reminder, with this system I don’t call a “winner” in each game. Instead, I assign each game a probability. If, for example, I decide that the Cardinals have a 70 percent probability of beating St. Louis in Week 9, than Arizona in that game gets .70 of a win (while the Rams are down at .30).
Using that process for every team and every game, I’ve got the Packers and Patriots ending with the No. 1 seed in each conference, and the Saints and Ravens getting the other first-round byes.
Other division winners: San Francisco, Houston, San Diego and the Giants.
Wild cards: Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Chicago and Atlanta.
Best teams to miss the playoffs: Jets, Lions, Cowboys, Bengals.
Favorites to land Andrew Luck: 1 Dolphins, 2 Colts, 3 Rams.
Wins
13.80 Green Bay
13.10 New England
12.05 New Orleans
11.35 Baltimore
10.85 San Francisco
10.80 Houston
10.20 Pittsburgh
9.60 San Diego
9.55 Buffalo
9.50 NY Jets
9.30 Chicago
9.25 Atlanta
9.05 NY Giants
8.95 Detroit
8.90 Dallas
8.90 Cincinnati
8.60 Oakland
8.15 Philadelphia
7.95 Tennessee
7.95 Tampa Bay
7.05 Kansas City
6.95 Washington
6.30 Cleveland
6.15 Carolina
6.05 Seattle
4.95 Arizona
4.95 Denver
4.30 Minnesota
4.00 Jacksonville
3.05 St. Louis
2.35 Indianapolis
2.10 Miami
GAME-BY-GAME FORECASTS
Likelihood of victory for each team in each game:
Arizona
win Carolina (H)
loss Washington (A)
loss Seattle (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
bye week
loss Pittsburgh (H)
5% Baltimore (A)
70% St. Louis (H)
10% Philadelphia (A)
15% San Francisco (A)
45% St. Louis (A)
40% Dallas (H)
50% San Francisco (H)
60% Cleveland (H)
30% Cincinnati (A)
70% Seattle (H)
Atlanta
loss Chicago (A)
win Philadelphia (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
win Seattle (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
win Carolina (H)
win Detroit (A)
bye week
80% Indianapolis (A)
45% New Orleans (H)
70% Tennessee (H)
75% Minnesota (H)
40% Houston (A)
45% Carolina (A)
95% Jacksonville (H)
15% New Orleans (A)
60% Tampa Bay (H)
Baltimore
win Pittsburgh (H)
loss Tennessee (A)
win St. Louis (A)
win NY Jets (H)
bye week
win Houston (H)
loss Jacksonville (A)
95% Arizona (H)
45% Pittsburgh (A)
80% Seattle (A)
75% Cincinnati (H)
85% San Francisco (H)
80% Cleveland (A)
95% Indianapolis (H)
40% San Diego (A)
85% Cleveland (H)
55% Cincinnati (A)
Buffalo
win Kansas City (A)
win Oakland (H)
win New England (H)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win Philadelphia (H)
loss NY Giants (A)
bye week
60% Washington (H)
50% NY Jets (H)
40% Dallas (A)
75% Miami (A)
40% NY Jets (A)
70% Tennessee (H)
35% San Diego (A)
85% Miami (H)
80% Denver (H)
20% New England (A)
Carolina
loss Arizona (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
win Jacksonville (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Atlanta (A)
win Washington (H)
60% Minnesota (H)
bye week
60% Tennessee (H)
35% Detroit (A)
60% Indianapolis (A)
40% Tampa Bay (A)
55% Atlanta (H)
30% Houston (A)
55% Tampa Bay (H)
20% New Orleans (A)
Chicago
win Atlanta (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
win Carolina (H)
loss Detroit (A)
win Minnesota (H)
win Tampa Bay (A)
bye week
40% Philadelphia (A)
65% Detroit (H)
55% San Diego (H)
45% Oakland (A)
90% Kansas City (H)
65% Denver (A)
80% Seattle (H)
30% Green Bay (A)
60% Minnesota (A)
Cincinnati
win Cleveland (A)
loss Denver (A)
loss San Francisco (H)
win Buffalo (H)
win Jacksonville (A)
win Indianapolis (H)
bye week
45% Seattle (A)
45% Tennessee (A)
55% Pittsburgh (H)
25% Baltimore (A)
75% Cleveland (H)
30% Pittsburgh (A)
40% Houston (H)
60% St. Louis (A)
70% Arizona (H)
45% Baltimore (H)
Cleveland
loss Cincinnati (H)
win Indianapolis (A)
win Miami (H)
loss Tennessee (H)
bye week
loss Oakland (A)
win Seattle (H)
15% San Francisco (A)
10% Houston (A)
70% St. Louis (H)
75% Jacksonville (H)
25% Cincinnati (A)
20% Baltimore (H)
20% Pittsburgh (A)
40% Arizona (A)
15% Baltimore (A)
40% Pittsburgh (H)
Dallas
loss NY Jets (A)
win San Francisco (A)
win Washington (H)
loss Detroit (H)
bye week
loss New England (A)
win St. Louis (H)
45% Philadelphia (A)
85% Seattle (H)
60% Buffalo (H)
55% Washington (A)
90% Miami (H)
60% Arizona (A)
55% NY Giants (H)
45% Tampa Bay (A)
55% Philadelphia (H)
40% NY Giants (A)
Denver
loss Oakland (H)
win Cincinnati (H)
loss Tennessee (A)
loss Green Bay (A)
loss San Diego (H)
bye week
win Miami (A)
50% Detroit (H)
25% Oakland (A)
35% Kansas City (A)
20% NY Jets (H)
25% San Diego (A)
35% Minnesota (A)
35% Chicago (H)
5% New England (H)
20% Buffalo (A)
45% Kansas City (H)
Detroit
win Tampa Bay (A)
win Kansas City (H)
win Minnesota (A)
win Dallas (A)
win Chicago (H)
loss San Francisco (H)
loss Atlanta (H)
50% Denver (A)
bye week
35% Chicago (A)
65% Carolina (H)
40% Green Bay (H)
20% New Orleans (A)
70% Minnesota (H)
40% Oakland (A)
55% San Diego (H)
20% Green Bay (A)
Green Bay
win New Orleans (H)
win Carolina (A)
win Chicago (A)
win Denver (H)
win Atlanta (A)
win St. Louis (H)
win Minnesota (A)
bye week
60% San Diego (A)
90% Minnesota (H)
90% Tampa Bay (H)
60% Detroit (A)
65% NY Giants (A)
85% Oakland (H)
80% Kansas City (A)
70% Chicago (H)
80% Detroit (H)
Houston
win Indianapolis (H)
win Miami (A)
loss New Orleans (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
loss Oakland (H)
loss Baltimore (A)
win Tennessee (A)
95% Jacksonville (H)
90% Cleveland (H)
55% Tampa Bay (A)
bye week
85% Jacksonville (A)
60% Atlanta (H)
60% Cincinnati (A)
70% Carolina (H)
85% Indianapolis (A)
80% Tennessee (H)
Indianapolis
loss Houston (A)
loss Cleveland (H)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
loss Kansas City (H)
loss Cincinnati (A)
loss New Orleans (A)
15% Tennessee (A)
20% Atlanta (H)
65% Jacksonville (H)
bye week
40% Carolina (H)
5% New England (A)
5% Baltimore (A)
30% Tennessee (H)
15% Houston (H)
40% Jacksonville (A)
Jacksonville
win Tennessee (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
loss Carolina (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Cincinnati (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
win Baltimore (H)
5% Houston (A)
bye week
35% Indianapolis (A)
25% Cleveland (A)
15% Houston (H)
20% San Diego (H)
25% Tampa Bay (H)
5% Atlanta (A)
10% Tennessee (A)
60% Indianapolis (H)
Kansas City
loss Buffalo (H)
loss Detroit (A)
loss San Diego (A)
win Minnesota (H)
win Indianapolis (A)
bye week
win Oakland (A)
50% San Diego (H)
80% Miami (H)
65% Denver (H)
5% New England (A)
45% Pittsburgh (H)
10% Chicago (A)
20% NY Jets (A)
20% Green Bay (H)
55% Oakland (H)
55% Denver (A)
Miami
loss New England (H)
loss Houston (H)
loss Cleveland (A)
loss San Diego (A)
bye week
loss NY Jets (A)
loss Denver (H)
10% NY Giants (A)
20% Kansas City (A)
45% Washington (H)
25% Buffalo (H)
10% Dallas (A)
40% Oakland (H)
20% Philadelphia (H)
15% Buffalo (A)
5% New England (A)
20% NY Jets (H)
Minnesota
loss San Diego (A)
loss Tampa Bay (H)
loss Detroit (H)
loss Kansas City (A)
win Arizona (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
40% Carolina (A)
bye week
10% Green Bay (A)
50% Oakland (H)
25% Atlanta (A)
65% Denver (H)
30% Detroit (A)
30% New Orleans (H)
40% Washington (A)
40% Chicago (H)
New England
win Miami (A)
win San Diego (H)
loss Buffalo (A)
win Oakland (A)
win NY Jets (H)
win Dallas (H)
bye week
75% Pittsburgh (A)
75% NY Giants (H)
55% NY Jets (A)
95% Kansas City (H)
60% Philadelphia (A)
95% Indianapolis (H)
85% Washington (A)
95% Denver (A)
95% Miami (H)
80% Buffalo (H)
New Orleans
loss Green Bay (A)
win Chicago (H)
win Houston (H)
win Jacksonville (A)
win Carolina (A)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
win Indianapolis (H)
95% St. Louis (A)
85% Tampa Bay (H)
55% Atlanta (A)
bye week
80% NY Giants (H)
80% Detroit (H)
75% Tennessee (A)
70% Minnesota (A)
85% Atlanta (H)
80% Carolina (H)
NY Giants
loss Washington (A)
win St. Louis (H)
win Philadelphia (A)
win Arizona (A)
loss Seattle (H)
win Buffalo (H)
bye week
90% Miami (H)
25% New England (A)
45% San Francisco (A)
60% Philadelphia (H)
20% New Orleans (A)
35% Green Bay (H)
45% Dallas (A)
75% Washington (H)
50% NY Jets (A)
60% Dallas (H)
NY Jets
win Dallas (H)
win Jacksonville (H)
loss Oakland (A)
loss Baltimore (A)
loss New England (A)
win Miami (H)
win San Diego (H)
bye week
50% Buffalo (A)
45% New England (H)
80% Denver (A)
60% Buffalo (H)
60% Washington (A)
80% Kansas City (H)
45% Philadelphia (A)
50% NY Giants (H)
80% Miami (A)
Oakland
win Denver (A)
loss Buffalo (A)
win NY Jets (H)
loss New England (H)
win Houston (A)
win Cleveland (H)
loss Kansas City (H)
bye week
75% Denver (H)
45% San Diego (A)
50% Minnesota (A)
55% Chicago (H)
60% Miami (A)
15% Green Bay (A)
60% Detroit (H)
45% Kansas City (A)
55% San Diego (H)
Philadelphia
win St. Louis (A)
loss Atlanta (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
loss San Francisco (H)
loss Buffalo (A)
win Washington (A)
bye week
55% Dallas (H)
60% Chicago (H)
90% Arizona (H)
40% NY Giants (A)
40% New England (H)
70% Seattle (A)
80% Miami (A)
55% NY Jets (H)
45% Dallas (A)
80% Washington (H)
Pittsburgh
loss Baltimore (A)
win Seattle (H)
win Indianapolis (A)
loss Houston (A)
win Tennessee (H)
win Jacksonville (H)
win Arizona (A)
25% New England (H)
55% Baltimore (H)
45% Cincinnati (A)
bye week
55% Kansas City (A)
70% Cincinnati (H)
80% Cleveland (H)
40% San Francisco (A)
90% St. Louis (H)
60% Cleveland (A)
San Diego
win Minnesota (H)
loss New England (A)
win Kansas City (H)
win Miami (H)
win Denver (A)
bye week
loss NY Jets (A)
50% Kansas City (A)
40% Green Bay (H)
55% Oakland (H)
45% Chicago (A)
75% Denver (H)
80% Jacksonville (A)
65% Buffalo (H)
60% Baltimore (H)
45% Detroit (A)
45% Oakland (A)
San Francisco
win Seattle (H)
loss Dallas (H)
win Cincinnati (A)
win Philadelphia (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
win Detroit (A)
bye week
85% Cleveland (H)
45% Washington (A)
55% NY Giants (H)
85% Arizona (H)
15% Baltimore (A)
85% St. Louis (H)
50% Arizona (A)
60% Pittsburgh (H)
45% Seattle (A)
60% St. Louis (A)
Seattle
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
win Arizona (H)
loss Atlanta (H)
win NY Giants (A)
bye week
loss Cleveland (A)
55% Cincinnati (H)
15% Dallas (A)
20% Baltimore (H)
45% St. Louis (A)
60% Washington (H)
30% Philadelphia (H)
75% St. Louis (H)
20% Chicago (A)
55% San Francisco (H)
30% Arizona (A)
St. Louis
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss NY Giants (A)
loss Baltimore (H)
loss Washington (H)
bye week
loss Green Bay (A)
loss Dallas (A)
5% New Orleans (H)
30% Arizona (A)
30% Cleveland (A)
55% Seattle (H)
55% Arizona (H)
15% San Francisco (A)
25% Seattle (A)
40% Cincinnati (H)
10% Pittsburgh (A)
40% San Francisco (H)
Tampa Bay
loss Detroit (H)
win Minnesota (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Indianapolis (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
win New Orleans (H)
loss Chicago (H)
bye week
15% New Orleans (A)
45% Houston (H)
10% Green Bay (A)
50% Tennessee (A)
60% Carolina (H)
75% Jacksonville (A)
55% Dallas (H)
45% Carolina (A)
40% Atlanta (A)
Tennessee
loss Jacksonville (A)
win Baltimore (H)
win Denver (H)
win Cleveland (A)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
bye week
loss Houston (H)
85% Indianapolis (H)
55% Cincinnati (H)
40% Carolina (A)
30% Atlanta (A)
50% Tampa Bay (H)
30% Buffalo (A)
25% New Orleans (H)
70% Indianapolis (A)
90% Jacksonville (H)
20% Houston (A)
Washington
win NY Giants (H)
win Arizona (H)
loss Dallas (A)
win St. Louis (A)
bye week
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss Carolina (A)
40% Buffalo (A)
55% San Francisco (H)
55% Miami (A)
45% Dallas (H)
40% Seattle (A)
40% NY Jets (H)
15% New England (H)
25% NY Giants (A)
60% Minnesota (H)
20% Philadelphia (A)
—Ian Allan
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