Fantasy News
As well as Tom Brady played against Denver (363 yards, 6 TDs), it’s hard to go with anyone else as the top fantasy quarterback this week. Eli Manning also has a tough matchup, and Joe Flacco and Alex Smith don’t seem to be elite quarterback – they’re more middle-of-the-pack guys.
But Brady has struggled against Baltimore – a team that typical will tend to play to the level of the competition. The Ravens have a very good pass defense, and they’ve held up pretty well in their recent meetings against him.
These teams have played four times in the last five years, and Brady hasn’t really diced them up in any of those games. The Patriots have won three close games, while the Ravens got up early and won big at Foxboro in the playoff game two years ago. (That was the game where Ray Rice scored on an 83-yard touchdown run on the first play).
Brady hasn’t passed for 300 yards in any of those games. He’s completed only 57 percent of his passes, with 6 TDs and 6 interceptions.
BRADY AGAINST RAVENS (2007-present)
Com Att Pct Yds TD Int Year
18 38 47.4 257 2 1 2007 @Bal. (27-24)
21 32 65.6 258 1 0 2009 @N.E. (27-21)
23 42 54.8 154 2 3 2009 @N.E. (14-33)
27 44 61.4 292 1 2 2010 @N.E. (23-20)
So how should we project Brady this week? In his last 10 games, he’s averaged 326 passing yards, with 27 TDs (an average of 2 per game). But the Ravens in their last 10 have allowed an average of only 233 yards, with just 6 TD passes in those 10 games.
As a reminder, the Ravens in the regular season allowed only 11 TD passes – 4 fewer than any other team.
The weather shouldn’t be a big factor, but it’s not ideal. The early forecast calls for a high of 34 degrees, with a 20 percent chance of rain and winds of about 10 mph. That’s according to weather.com
I would project the Patriots to finish with about 280 passing yards in this game. If they played this game 16 times (a full season’s worth of meetings), I think Brady would throw about 28 TDs. That works out to a fantasy value of about 1.75 TD passes, in my opinion.
What do the readers think? Is that high or low for a quarterback who’s been awfully hot?
—Ian Allan
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