Fantasy News
I settled on rushing touchdown figures yesterday in the quarterbacks article (when I looked out how many points each offense should score). Looking at the offenses and defenses, it looks like none of the teams will score many touchdowns on the ground.
I settled on the following figures for rushing touchdowns:
TDR
.85 New England
.82 Baltimore
.75 San Francisco
.45 New York
A brief overview, then, at the likelihood of the running backs for each team scoring.
Baltimore
Ray Rice is the main weapon, of course. In the regular season, the Ravens scored 15 rushing touchdowns, and Rice scored 12 of them – 80 percent. So in ballpark terms, 80 percent of .82 rushing touchdowns (which is what we’re projecting the Ravens for) would mean Rice would have about a 66 percent chance of running for a touchdown in this game. Rice also catches 10-15 percent of Baltimore’s passing touchdowns, which moves him higher on my board. Ricky Williams scored 2 TDs in the regular season, and Joe Flacco ran for one. Flacco also was stopped at the goal-line last week on a sneak that some refs might have called a touchdown. Had it been called a touchdown, there would not have been any evidence to overturn it. Rice, of course, came up big play when the Ravens won at Foxboro in a playoff game two years ago, running for 159 yards and 2 TDs, including an 83-yarder on the first play for the game. That’s impressive, but it also probably means the Patriots will really key on him in this game. In the last meeting between these teams, Rice ran for 88 yards on 28 carries, with no touchdowns.
New England
The Patriots use a lot of ball carriers. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead will all have multiple touches. Tom Brady is a factor as a sneaker at the goal line. Even Kevin Faulk or Shane Vereen might get a few touches (but we don’t think they will). But in terms of touchdowns, Green-Ellis is the main guy. When they get the ball inside the 3, he’s the guy they almost always use. He’s scored 11 of the team’s 18 rushing touchdowns. Really, it’s more like 11 of 16. Vereen came on in the closing minutes of a route against Kansas City, and one of those 18 touchdowns was quick pass to Rob Gronkowski that was ruled to be a lateral. So we’re figuring BJGE has about a 60-65 percent chance of scoring whatever rushing touchdowns the Patriots manage in this game. Ridley and Woodhead each scored only one touchdown in the regular season. Ridley’s workload increased in December, but they haven’t been using him for goal-line plays. None of the team’s running backs caught a touchdown in the regular season.
New York
The 49ers allowed a record-low 3 rushing touchdowns in the regular season. All of those touchdowns, however, at least came in the last two games. And the Giants do have some potential to score via that route when they’re inside the 5. They’ve scored 18 rushing touchdowns in 18 games. So combined, that’s 21 TDs in 35 touchdowns between these two units, or about .60 per game. We’re putting the Giants down for only .45 rushing touchdowns, the lowest figure on the board. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs should split time pretty evenly. Including the postseason, Bradshaw has outscored Jacobs 11-9 (that includes Bradshaw holding a 2-1 edge in receiving touchdowns). In a rough sense, you’re looking at about a 50-50 chance of New York scoring a rushing touchdown, then a 50-50 chance of picking the right running back.
San Francisco
The 49ers had their running game going for about two months in the middle of the season, but it’s not a great group. They’ve had problems punching in touchdowns around the goal line. It’s a poor run offense that will settle for field goals. They ran for only 14 TDs in the regular season, fewest of the remaining teams. Frank Gore has scored only 8 of the team’s 15 rushing touchdowns (8 of 12 if you want to account for when he was actually playing). Alex Smith (3 TDs) is a quarterback who’ll be utilized as a runner around the goal line. … Kendall Hunter is a backup who brings some explosiveness as a change of pace, but he ran for only 2 TDs in the regular season. … None of the San Francisco tailbacks caught a touchdown in the regular season.
TOP 15 RUNNING BACKS (TD-only)
(rankings including rushing and receiving touchdowns)
Points
4.8 BAL Ray Rice
3.2 SF Frank Gore
3.1 NE BenJarvus Green-Ellis
1.8 NYG Ahmad Bradshaw
1.3 NYG Brandon Jacobs
.8 SF Kendall Hunter
.8 NE Danny Woodhead
.7 NE Stevan Ridley
.7 BAL Ricky Williams
.3 SF Bruce Miller
.2 NYG D.J. Ware
.2 NE Kevin Faulk
.2 NYG Henry Hynoski
.2 BAL Vonta Leach
.1 SF Antony Dixon
—Ian Allan
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