Fantasy News
Congratulations to Scott Pianowski of Yahoo! Sports. He’s the winner of the 2011 version of the Fantasy Index Experts Poll. This is the season-long competition where a collection of 25 analysts submit a top 20 at each position. Every pick at every position counts (the higher you rank each guy, the more he counts towards your score).
Using a notoriously complex scoring grid, Pianowski finished with 214,652 points. That put him about 1,700 points ahead of Pretzel May of FantasyDraftMaster. Bob Henry of Footballguys.com finished in 3rd.
This is the second championship in this competition for Pianowski. Previously he won in 2006. Three other guys have won the title twice. Henry (3rd this year) went back-to-back in 2002 and 2003. James Serra of First Place Sports Software won in 1999 and 2009. And the Millman cousins of Fantasy Football Champs won in 2001 and 2005.
“I’m honored to join that group,” Pianowski says. “There are lot of people in this industry who really know what they’re doing.”
I have thorough records going back 20 years, and I’ll tabulate the all-time leader boards and get that posted early next week – all-time wins, winning percentage, points, etc.
Two rival franchises rounded out the top 5 this year. Lenny Pappano and Tony Holm are kind of the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals of the fantasy circuit. They both have company names with “Sharks” in the title. Pappano named his company “Draft Sharks” in 1999, and Holm came along a little later and named his company “Fantasy Sharks”. Same mascot, but different groups. Pappano came in just ahead of Holm this time; they finished 4th and 5th.
Now, there is no perfect way to grade or analyze fantasy advice. For this competition, the scoring involves giving each pick slightly less weight. We’ve got it set up so that if you rank a guy first, those points get multiplied by 20 times. Lawrence Tynes, for example, scored 100 points for the Giants this year. If you ranked him first, that would be 2000 points towards your score (20 x 100). Rank him 2nd, that would be worth 1900 (19 x 100). Rank him 18th, that would be worth 300 (3 x 100).
Fair enough. Grade every pick in that way, and Pianowski is your winner. That’s how we’ve been grading the competition for years.
But that’s just one way to look at the picks, and it places a huge value on guys staying healthy. A guy gets hurt, and that’s a big zero to take all year long. Anybody ranking Nate Kaeding or Peyton Manning in their top 3, for example, immediately is in a huge hole. In an actual fantasy league, you could probably rebound pretty easily from losing Kaeding in Week 1 (on the opening kickoff) by just picking up another kicker. But that’s the way we score it.
Greg Kellogg was affected more by that rule than anybody. He made Jahvid Best his No. 5 running back. Best missed most of the year, and that left a big hole in the top of Kellogg’s lineup, contributing to him finishing in last.
If you want to put a higher value on picks lower in the top 20, you can look at our “WBA” rankings. In those rankings, the first pick is worth only twice as much as the 20th pick (with the 20 multiplier numbers ranging from 21 to 40 – 40 for the No. 1 picks and 21 for the 20th) picks. Do it that way and Pretzel May moves up from 2nd to first, and Pianowski drops down to No. 3 behind Holm.
Consider Louis Tranquilli of BFD Fantasy Sports. He finished in 24th in the WBC scoring, but put more weight on the later-round picks using the WBA system, and he moves up to 13th – big difference.
We also list a third scoring system – the IBF (you guy remember the mockery that boxing became in the ‘80s, right?). In that one, the first picks are worth about three times as much as the last picks, with points ranging from 11 to 30 points.
Bottom line: there’s a lot of chance and luck involved, and don’t put too much weight purely in the numbers you see. We score the poll to make sure that all of the experts and trying and taking it seriously. But really, the value of the poll is to give you, the readers, a chance to see a sample of how the experts work a little, and how they argue the case for and against a few players. It gives you a chance to see how they think.
I’ll post more on the poll early next week, with breakdowns on each position and overall career numbers.
FANTASY INDEX EXPERTS POLL
WBC scoring (official results)
Points
214,652 Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports)
212,972 Pretzel May (FantasyDraftMaster.com)
212,603 Bob Henry (Footballguys.com)
212,435 Lenny Pappano (Draft Sharks)
212,252 Tony Holm (FantasySharks.com)
212,113 Eric Schneller (Indianapolis / Fantasy Index reader)
211,668 Nathan Zegura (The Fantasy Consultant)
211,637 Geoff Maleman (Redondo Beach, Calif. / Fantasy Index reader)
210,843 Brian Laskiewicz (Randolph, N.J. / Fantasy Index reader)
210,750 Jon Millman (Fantasy Football Champs)
210,576 Chris Liss (RotoWire.com)
210,532 Alan Satterlee (Dynasty Rogues)
210,305 Sam Hendricks (FFGuidebook.com)
210,168 David Dorey (The Huddle)
210,154 Gregg Rosenthal (NBC Sports / Rotoworld)
209,443 Justin Eleff (Fantasy Index)
209,294 Christopher Harris (ESPN)
209,128 Cory Bonini (KFFL)
209,090 James Serra (First Place Sports Software)
208,683 Keith Mason (Sumter, S.C. / Fantasy Index reader)
208,520 Jeffrey Kamys (Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports)
208,468 Austin Kipp (Olathe, Kan. / Fantasy Index reader)
207,856 Craig Davis (FantasyFootball.com)
207,788 Louis Tranquilli (BFD Fantasy Football)
207,749 Greg Kellogg (Kellogg's Komments)
FANTASY INDEX EXPERTS POLL
WBA scoring (heavier weighting to bottom of top 20s)
Points
600,888 Pretzel May (FantasyDraftMaster.com)
597,262 Tony Holm (FantasySharks.com)
597,112 Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports)
596,535 Brian Laskiewicz (Randolph, N.J. / Fantasy Index reader)
594,847 Sam Hendricks (FFGuidebook.com)
591,885 Lenny Pappano (Draft Sharks)
591,153 Eric Schneller (Indianapolis / Fantasy Index reader)
589,736 David Dorey (The Huddle)
589,486 Nathan Zegura (The Fantasy Consultant)
589,355 Gregg Rosenthal (NBC Sports / Rotoworld)
588,070 Chris Liss (RotoWire.com)
587,833 Bob Henry (Footballguys.com)
587,629 Louis Tranquilli (BFD Fantasy Football)
585,700 Jon Millman (Fantasy Football Champs)
584,214 Craig Davis (FantasyFootball.com)
584,152 Cory Bonini (KFFL)
583,728 Alan Satterlee (Dynasty Rogues)
582,009 Geoff Maleman (Redondo Beach, Calif. / Fantasy Index reader)
580,664 Keith Mason (Sumter, S.C. / Fantasy Index reader)
580,595 James Serra (First Place Sports Software)
579,433 Jeffrey Kamys (Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports)
578,897 Justin Eleff (Fantasy Index)
577,423 Austin Kipp (Olathe, Kan. / Fantasy Index reader)
573,733 Christopher Harris (ESPN)
571,779 Greg Kellogg (Kellogg's Komments)
FANTASY INDEX EXPERTS POLL
IBF scoring (halfway between WBC and WBA)
Points
406,930 Pretzel May (FantasyDraftMaster.com)
405,882 Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports)
404,757 Tony Holm (FantasySharks.com)
403,689 Brian Laskiewicz (Randolph, N.J. / Fantasy Index reader)
402,576 Sam Hendricks (FFGuidebook.com)
402,160 Lenny Pappano (Draft Sharks)
401,633 Eric Schneller (Indianapolis / Fantasy Index reader)
400,577 Nathan Zegura (The Fantasy Consultant)
400,218 Bob Henry (Footballguys.com)
399,952 David Dorey (The Huddle)
399,755 Gregg Rosenthal (NBC Sports / Rotoworld)
399,323 Chris Liss (RotoWire.com)
398,225 Jon Millman (Fantasy Football Champs)
397,708 Louis Tranquilli (BFD Fantasy Football)
397,130 Alan Satterlee (Dynasty Rogues)
396,823 Geoff Maleman (Redondo Beach, Calif. / Fantasy Index reader)
396,640 Cory Bonini (KFFL)
396,035 Craig Davis (FantasyFootball.com)
394,842 James Serra (First Place Sports Software)
394,673 Keith Mason (Sumter, S.C. / Fantasy Index reader)
394,170 Justin Eleff (Fantasy Index)
393,976 Jeffrey Kamys (Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports)
392,946 Austin Kipp (Olathe, Kan. / Fantasy Index reader)
391,514 Christopher Harris (ESPN)
389,764 Greg Kellogg (Kellogg's Komments)
—Ian Allan
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Posted by IAN ALLAN | Jan. 26 at 10:50 PM
Note: I invited all interested readers to submit overall top 20s. We get emails all the time from readers wanting to participate. 2011 was kind of a grab-bag year, with the labor deal and whatnot, and at the last minute I posted a blurb on the Facebook site and here. I've got about 40 entries (including the five I randomly through into the poll above) and those will all be scored as well.
Posted by ERIC SCHNELLER | Jan. 27 at 04:05 AM
So the #1 reader was who? Oh ME, cool!! :). It would be interesting to know if injuries particularly killed one fantasy owner (or many like Peyton surely did), or other random facts you find interesting about this contest in retrospect. You always throw some interesting stats or perspectives out there... Look forward to next week's article!