Ask the Experts
Posted Jan. 28 at 05:18 AM
ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly with answers to a new question usually being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them:
What will happen in Super Bowl XLVI?
JARED SMOLA
From an overall talent perspective, I think the Giants are a bit better than the Pats. But I give New England the edge in 2 key areas: QB play and coaching. As good as Eli Manning has been this season -- especially in the 4th quarter -- I'd still rather have the ball in Tom Brady's hands late in the game. And with 2 full weeks to prepare, I think Bill Belichick will put together a Super Bowl-winning game plan. The Patriots win with a late TD, 31-27.
Smola is the Senior Editor of DraftSharks.com. DraftSharks has been providing fantasy football analysis since 1999. The site provides its members with feature articles, daily email updates, in-depth player profiles and projections, its exclusive MVP Draft Board, and much more. This past year, Draft Sharks took home the Fantasy Sports Trade Association's award for most accurate preseason projections.
IAN ALLAN
I think Bill Belichick is the best coach in NFL history at using game films to prepare for an opponent. In his 12 years with New England, his defenses have allowed 19.6 points per game in the first half of the season, and 17.2 points per game in the second. That’s 2.4 points per game, which is remarkable, considering we’re talking about 192 regular-season games. And that’s the way it’s played out this year. The Patriots allowed 23.0 points per game in their first eight. Since that time, they’ve allowed 18.0 per game. The pass rush has gotten a lot better; 15 sacks in their first eight, but 33 in their last 10. But I sense that Belichick is doing it with smoke and mirrors this time. They don’t have enough talent in their secondary. At the end of the Baltimore game, they were trying to cover Anquan Boldin with Julian Edelman, and Boldin kept making catch after catch. So I worry about their ability to cover the Cruz-Nicks-Manningham trifecta. The Giants won the earlier meeting, and that was with Nicks out with a hamstring injury. They’ve got Eli Manning, and he doesn’t seem to get flustered in these big, high-stakes games. If the Giants get the ball with 3 minutes left and needing a touchdown to win, can the Patriots stop them? I don’t think they can. It should be a close game that could go either way (just like the last three between these teams), but my hunch is New York will find a way to get it done.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at www.fantasyindex.com.
SCOTT PIANOWSKI
I'm surprised New England is favored by three points in the Super Bowl - this strikes me as a dead-even matchup. And the Giants might have a better team overall; certainly they have more balance than New England. But given that it's a rematch and revenge game for the Pats, and Bill Belichick gets that critical extra week to prepare, I'm going to take the sucker side, the favorite. Call it Patriots 30, Giants 27.
Pianowski has been playing fantasy football for 18 years and writing about it for 15. He joined Yahoo! Sports in 2008 and has been blogging 24/7 on RotoArcade.com ever since.
MICHAEL NAZAREK
The New York Giants will once again defeat the Patriots, 20-17.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers an online rookie draft kit, preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, fantasy drafting programs including auction values, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is a four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a former columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached at miken@ffmastermind.com.
JEFFREY KAMYS
The conditions are obviously perfect for a high scoring game, so expect that. We think both defense will struggle in this one and both Brady and Manning will have 3+ TD games. This game will likely come down to the last possesion, but we see Brady edging out Manning in a tight game 38-35.
Kamys is president of Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports. His company, via the web, offers player news, injury reports, cheat sheets, projections, weekly matchups, statistics, and a customized team tracker. Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports also e-mails preseason newsletters and reports throughout the season. For more info visit www.docstats.com or send email to webmaster@docstats.com.
ALAN SATTERLEE
Who will win the Super Bowl is a really tough question. I have actually picked every playoff game right this year versus the spread and I am 9-1 straight up. However, I am really torn here. On the one hand, Tom Brady is the first QB to ever take his team to five Super Bowls. What a moment for he and Bill Belichick to cement their legacy. On the other, the Giants simply have the better team right now. The Giants front four are huge edge in this game and I think Eli and the G-men do defeat the Patriots again in the Super Bowl. Give me the Giants, 31-24. Eli takes home his second MVP award.
Dynasty Rogues is the fantasy football information site run by fantasy football enthusiasts for fantasy football enthusiasts. The site includes a year-round approach to analyzing football information for those in dynasty and redraft leagues. Dynasty Rogues were the 2008 Champion of the Fantasy Index Experts' Competition.
LOUIS TRANQUILLI
I believe the Giants will see a Patriots defense playing a lot of 3-4 front and running a ton of Zone Blitz packages to take away the shorter routes the Giants WRs like to run and Eli likes to throw. The Giants will punish the middle of the Pats offensive line with pressure causing Brady to set up in the shotgun more than they would like to. Welker catches 10 passes. Gronkowski is a letdown and Deion Branch is a surprise again. Giants win 24-23.
Tranquilli is the founder of BFDFANTASYfootball.com. This is the eighth season BFD will be offering advice. In 2010 their subscribers won over $500,000 in High Stakes Fantasy football events.
SAM HENDRICKS
New England starts strong and finishes well to revenge their previous Super Bowl loss to the G-Men. NE is up 17-10 at halftime. The Giants score a late third quarter TD pass from Eli to Hakeem Nicks to make it 23-17. But a hard TD run by the law firm (BGE) seals the deal 37-20. Tom Brady throws for 300 yards and 3 TDs (one each for Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez).
Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at his website, www.ffguidebook.com, at all major bookstores, and at www.amazon.com. He is a 20-year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF), National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 competitors) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).
ANDY RICHARDSON
If the playoffs tell us anything, it's that there is not a lot of difference between most of these playoff teams. And both that and the last few Giants-Patriots meetings certainly tell us that about this matchup. It sounds like Rob Gronkowski will be limited, which hurts New England's offense, and I think New York's defense is playing very well right now anyway. I think BenJarvus Green-Ellis' uncle should save his money and not wager it on a game between two evenly matched teams, one of whom is a little bit healthier and has a better defense. Giants 31, Patriots 24.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for the past ten years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.
New this season! We'll post the weekly question on Facebook, and the best reader answer will get included in the column. Here is this week's reader winner:
JONATHAN R. OZICK
Victor Cruz caps off a season to remember. From being a free agent FFL player to becoming a Super Bowl MVP.
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Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Jan. 28 at 11:47 AM
Giants and under.
Posted by Scott Anderson | Jan. 28 at 07:16 PM
Patriots D isn't even CLOSE to the 9ers, who managed to keep the NFC title game close, in Candlestick. Eli surpasses Peyton, Brady throws 2 picks, Giants win by double digits.
Posted by Robert Heater | Jan. 29 at 08:51 PM
I'm with you Scott. I think Brady is going to be under constant pressure from the Giants front four in this one and won't have the real Gronk out there. Eli in the meantime is playing at the top of his game and will carve up the Pats secondary, I also think the Giants run game is on track enough to keep the Pats D honest. As funny as it may sound I think NE has to approach the game in a more clock oriented offense to keep the Giants off the field. They've been getting good production out of the run game this postseason and it will be critical for the Pats to get production on the ground this game. If the Pats can control the clock I think they can squeak out a close one. Otherwise I like the Giants to be in control most of the evening. Giants 34, Pats 24
Posted by David Grace | Feb. 10 at 04:36 PM
Someone needs to tell ALAN SATTERLEE about a guy named John Elway. He was the first QB to take his team to 5 Superbowls, not Brady.