Factoid
Our rankings of fantasy defenses tend to emphasize sacks and interceptions, and matchups with quarterbacks that are most likely to surrender them. We downplay the impact of fumbles in the projections, under the belief that they have more to do with chance than anything else.
The numbers support this. Below you'll see the average fantasy points accumulated by defenses over the past five years, in a scoring system that awards 2 points for sacks and turnovers and 6 points for defensive touchdowns. The first column shows fantasy points, and the rankings are sorted accordingly, while the second shows each team's NFL ranking in terms of fumbles forced over those same five years.
Note that Green Bay, which has had the best fantasy defense the last five years, has forced more fumbles than only two teams, while Carolina has been a bottom-10 fantasy defense over that span, but is top-5 in forcing fumbles.
Best that can be said is that six of the top 10 fantasy defenses have also ranked in the top 10 in fumbles over that time; forcing fumbles helps your ranking. Still, half of the top 16 fantasy defenses achieved that ranking without finishing even in the top 12 in fumbles. There doesn't, then, appear to be a strong correlation between forcing fumbles and overall fantasy performance.
Fantasy points and fumbles, last five years
FFPts Fum(Rk)
10.8 30 Green Bay
10.7 10 Philadelphia
10.6 2 Chicago
10.3 12 New England
10.3 7 Arizona
10.2 6 NY Giants
10.2 3 Minnesota
10.1 14 Dallas
9.9 4 NY Jets
9.9 25 San Diego
9.8 21 Pittsburgh
9.7 28 Baltimore
9.6 1 Detroit
9.5 13 Seattle
9.4 24 Tennessee
9.2 17 San Francisco
9.0 15 New Orleans
8.9 26 Oakland
8.9 8 Tampa Bay
8.7 22 Buffalo
8.6 32 Miami
8.4 9 Indianapolis
8.3 11 Cincinnati
8.3 23 Atlanta
8.2 18 Houston
8.1 5 Carolina
8.0 19 Denver
8.0 27 Cleveland
7.8 20 Kansas City
7.8 16 St. Louis
7.4 29 Washington
7.3 31 Jacksonville
--Andy Richardson
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