Fantasy Index Scheduletron -- strength-of-schedule analysis

Earlier I posted the Strength of Schedule numbers for wins and losses (which showed that the Patriots project to play the easiest schedule in 2012, while the Giants project to play the hardest). Then I showed the defense-specific numbers, which had Atlanta as easiest and Cincinnati as the hardest.

Below are the numbers tailored solely for rushing and passing.

For rushing production, Atlanta, Kansas City and San Diego project to play the easiest schedules. This is using the yards and touchdowns allowed by opponents during the 2011 regular season. I used the scoring system of 1 point for every 10 yards and 6 points for touchdowns. To make the numbers more readable, I’ve got the yards showing as per-game figures (tending to be around 120 per game), but the TDs on a per-season (where the NFL average was 12.5 per team last year). The fantasy points are expressed as a per-game average.

Detroit, Arizona and the Giants project to play the hardest schedules for running backs.

2012 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- RUSHING
Using points allowed by teams in 2011 regular-season games.
   Yds   TDR   Pts   
   126   14.6   18.1   Atlanta
   124   13.4   17.4   Kansas City
   123   13.4   17.3   San Diego
   120   13.9   17.2   Miami
   120   13.8   17.2   New Orleans
   119   13.3   16.9   Carolina
   121   12.7   16.8   Denver
   120   12.9   16.8   San Francisco
   119   12.8   16.7   Tampa Bay
   117   13.3   16.7   Philadelphia
   117   12.8   16.5   Houston
   119   12.4   16.5   Pittsburgh
   116   12.9   16.5   Washington
   116   13.1   16.5   Dallas
   118   12.5   16.5   Jacksonville
   119   12.3   16.5   Oakland
   118   12.3   16.4   Minnesota
   116   12.8   16.4   New England
   117   12.4   16.3   Buffalo
   115   12.4   16.2   Cleveland
   118   11.6   16.1   Baltimore
   116   11.9   16.1   NY Jets
   115   12.2   16.1   Seattle
   116   11.5   15.9   Chicago
   114   12.1   15.9   Tennessee
   115   11.7   15.9   Indianapolis
   113   12.1   15.8   St. Louis
   115   11.2   15.7   Cincinnati
   114   11.4   15.7   Green Bay
   112   12.1   15.7   NY Giants
   112   11.1   15.4   Arizona
   111   11.1   15.3   Detroit


For passing, the four NFC South teams project to play the easiest schedules. The hardest schedules belong to the Patriots and the four AFC North teams.

For passing, the general setup is the same: 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards.


2012 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- PASSING
Using points allowed by teams in 2011 regular-season games.
   Yds   TDP   Pts   
   253   26.4   35.2   New Orleans
   252   26.1   35.0   Tampa Bay
   252   25.9   35.0   Atlanta
   251   25.4   34.6   Carolina
   254   24.4   34.5   Chicago
   256   23.4   34.4   Seattle
   257   23.1   34.3   San Francisco
   253   23.9   34.3   Detroit
   256   23.0   34.2   St. Louis
   250   24.1   34.1   Jacksonville
   252   23.5   34.0   Arizona
   250   23.6   33.9   Green Bay
   250   23.4   33.8   Houston
   251   22.9   33.7   Minnesota
   243   23.9   33.3   Washington
   240   24.6   33.3   Kansas City
   244   23.6   33.2   Tennessee
   245   22.8   33.1   NY Jets
   244   22.6   32.9   Philadelphia
   243   22.8   32.9   Indianapolis
   242   22.8   32.8   NY Giants
   238   23.8   32.7   Denver
   244   22.2   32.7   Miami
   241   22.8   32.6   Dallas
   235   22.6   32.0   San Diego
   234   22.9   32.0   Oakland
   241   20.6   31.8   Buffalo
   232   22.3   31.6   Cleveland
   232   22.3   31.6   Baltimore
   236   20.9   31.4   New England
   231   21.3   31.1   Pittsburgh
   228   21.1   30.7   Cincinnati

—Ian Allan

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