Quarterbacks: touchdown percentage
Posted Feb. 19 at 04:21 AM
With quarterbacks, I think the “touchdown percentage” number is telling. Logically, it doesn’t seem like a big deal. It could be skewed because some teams emphasize the pass around the goal line more than others.
But the bottom line is that when you look at touchdown percentage, it seems like the best quarterbacks tend to come out near the top. And by best, I mean fantasy or otherwise.
Below are the numbers for the last five years. I’m showing every quarterback who’s attempted at least 1000 passes. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are your top 2, and few would argue that they’re both viable candidates to be the league’s best quarterback. I also see Drew Brees at 4th and Peyton Manning at 6th.
The other guys in the top 6 – Tony Romo and Philip Rivers. Both have put up big numbers, but both need to cement their status by having more success in the postseason. Until those guys get to Super Bowls, I don’t think either will be thought of as quite being up there with the true mega-stars. Fair or not, that’s just kind of how it seems to work.
At the bottom of this chart, you see the likes of Chad Henne, Jason Campbell, Marc Bulger, Kerry Collins and Derek Anderson. I’m surprised to see that Matt Hasselbeck is also down there with that lesser group. Some of that can perhaps be attributed to him playing for teams that at times have emphasized the run around the goal line. I recall, however, that Hasselbeck has put up some pretty awful passing stats inside the 10 in multiple seasons.
QUARTERBACKS: TOUCHDOWN PERCENTAGE, 2007-2011
Among passers with at least 100 attempts.
TD Att Pct
153 2257 6.78% Tom Brady
132 2082 6.34% Aaron Rodgers
130 2255 5.76% Tony Romo
175 3116 5.62% Drew Brees
140 2547 5.50% Philip Rivers
124 2320 5.34% Peyton Manning
83 1562 5.31% Kurt Warner
60 1136 5.28% Matthew Stafford
113 2281 4.95% Ben Roethlisberger
131 2645 4.95% Eli Manning
94 1946 4.83% Brett Favre
95 2022 4.70% Matt Ryan
108 2384 4.53% Jay Cutler
92 2118 4.34% Matt Schaub
89 2084 4.27% Carson Palmer
74 1735 4.27% Matt Cassel
80 1958 4.09% Joe Flacco
71 1742 4.08% David Garrard
64 1609 3.98% Ryan Fitzpatrick
40 1009 3.96% Jon Kitna
55 1414 3.89% Mark Sanchez
82 2115 3.88% Donovan McNabb
51 1316 3.88% Josh Freeman
71 1836 3.87% Kyle Orton
51 1353 3.77% Alex Smith
48 1319 3.64% Derek Anderson
80 2221 3.60% Matt Hasselbeck
64 1924 3.33% Jason Campbell
34 1089 3.12% Kerry Collins
31 1065 2.91% Chad Henne
27 1065 2.54% Marc Bulger
Posted by Moishe Steigmann | Feb. 19 at 07:45 AM
These factoids are interesting, Ian. I wonder, though: which ones are correlative and which predictive? The latter is much more helpful as a gauge of fantasy (and real) success. Any thoughts so far?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Feb. 20 at 05:32 AM
Moishe - my two cents is that they're helpful in either confirming or disputing popular beliefs, and best used as, perhaps, discriminators between two players. Some of the stuff Ian has put up can suggest, for example, that Matt Schaub is underrated -- and speculation that the Texans would make a play for Peyton Manning is unfounded. Today's confirms something we know, I think, that Mark Sanchez hasn't been as effective as the Jets seem to feel he is, and maybe he's closer to the bench if he struggles than New York maintains. Personally I think a lot of the factoids just give extra information to consider when making a decision between two or more players, helping to make more educated choices.
Posted by Moishe Steigmann | Feb. 20 at 04:09 PM
Thanks, Andy. That makes a lot of sense.
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