Factoid
Trent Richardson will likely be the first running back selected in April's draft. Will he go on to be one of the game's elite runners? Recent history suggests we'll have an answer to that question fairly quickly.
The table below shows the rookie numbers for the first running backs selected over the last 25 years. Note that six of those 25 players rushed for 1,000 yards right out of the gate, and all went on to have great (in some cases, Hall of Fame) NFL careers. The 19 that failed to reach that mark as rookies include a couple of fine players (Steven Jackson, Warrick Dunn) and several on whom the jury is still out, but the majority turned out to be mediocre or worse, with careers shortened either by injury or poor performance.
It's too soon to judge recent top picks like C.J. Spiller and Mark Ingram, who had no control over the situation they were drafted into. (Steven Jackson, for example, would probably have rushed for 1,000 yards as a rookie had he not been playing behind Marshall Faulk.) Still, it would have been more encouraging for them had they made a significant impact right away, and the same will be true for Richardson.
Note also that merely by being the first running back selected, the odds are in favor of Richardson helping fantasy teams right away. Nearly half (12) of those 25 backs put up 1,000 total yards as rookies, two more were over 800, and 13 also scored at least 5 TDs in their rookie seasons.
First running back drafted, 1987-2011
Year Pk RuYds ReYds TDs Player, Team
1999 4 1553 586 17 Edgerrin James, Ind.
1989 3 1470 282 14 Barry Sanders, Det.
2000 5 1364 296 6 Jamal Lewis, Balt.
2007 7 1341 268 13 Adrian Peterson, Minn.
1994 2 1282 522 12 Marshall Faulk, Ind.
2001 5 1236 367 10 LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.
1997 12 978 462 7 Warrick Dunn, T.B.
1991 14 959 81 4 Leonard Russell, N.E.
2009 12 947 213 9 Knowshon Moreno, Den.
2005 2 907 232 5 Ronnie Brown, Mia.
2002 16 887 113 6 William Green, Clev.
2004 24 673 189 4 Steven Jackson, St.L.
1996 6 632 28 5 Lawrence Phillips, St.L.
1990 2 620 204 2 Blair Thomas, NYJ
2006 2 565 742 9 Reggie Bush, N.O.
2008 4 499 285 4 Darren McFadden, Oak.
1998 5 497 20 0 Curtis Enis, Chi.
2011 28 474 46 5 Mark Ingram, N.O.
1992 9 369 128 0 Tommy Vardell, Clev.
2010 9 283 157 1 C.J. Spiller, Buff.
1993 3 264 18 1 Garrison Hearst, Ariz.
1988 14 117 57 0 Gaston Green, St.L.
1987 3 106 55 2 Alonzo Highsmith, Hou.
2003 23 0 0 0 Willis McGahee, Buff.
1995 1 0 0 0 Ki-Jana Carter, Cinn.
--Andy Richardson
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