Some decline in order for VJax, Marshall
Posted Mar. 15 at 06:34 AM
Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson, who changed teams on Tuesday, put up seasons with over 1,000 receiving yards last year. How have such receivers who then changed teams fared in their new homes?
Over the last 10 years, there have been 15 instances of a player putting up a 1,000-yard season and then changing teams. (One was Marshall himself; two players have done it twice.) Only once did a player put up more receiving yards for his new team that next season; the average drop in yardage production was 32 percent.
There are extenuating circumstances in some cases -- some guys got hurt, or went to teams with clearly inferior quarterbacking situations. And sometimes their numbers were very similar, or they returned to form in their second seasons with the new team. But the overall indications are that Marshall and Jackson will be in line for a production dip in 2012.
1000-yard receivers changing teams, 2001-2010
Den., 2009 1120 Mia., 2010 1014 -9% Marshall
N.E., 2009 1264 Var., 2010 393 -69% R. Moss
Pitt., 2009 1248 NYJ, 2010 746 -40% S. Holmes
Ariz., 2009 1024 Bal., 2010 837 -18% A. Boldin
K.C., 2008 1058 Atl., 2009 867 -18% T. Gonzalez
Dal., 2008 1052 Buf., 2009 829 -21% T. Owens
Cle., 2005 1009 S.F., 2006 733 -27% A. Bryant
Ten., 2004 1168 Bal., 2005 1073 -8% D. Mason
S.F., 2003 1102 Phi., 2004 1200 +9% T. Owens
NYJ, 2002 1264 Was., 2003 1204 -5% L. Coles
T.B., 2003 1174 S.D., 2004 393 -67% McCardell
Buf., 2002 1252 Atl., 2003 838 -33% P. Price
Jac., 2001 1110 T.B., 2002 670 -40% McCardell
Bal., 2001 1059 Ind., 2002 462 -56% Q. Ismail
N.O., 2001 1046 Atl., 2002 199 -81% W.Jackson
Posted by Travis Billman | Mar. 15 at 06:29 PM
Do you think the familiarity between Cutler and Marshall will allow Marshall to be more likely to overcome the dip? Or is a move to a new system more influential than his relationship with Cutler? Or, more depressingly, do you generally see his best days behind him?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Mar. 16 at 03:34 AM
Probably any dip will come because Marshall might get suspended. I think having a better QB will help him, but I don't see Chicago having the kind of high-flying offense that will really see him put up huge numbers. Wouldn't bet against him being pretty good, though, as long as he plays. Couple of pretty soft secondaries in his division.
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