Ian Allan

I notice, as I’m working on the story for the Titans, that they scored 65 percent of their touchdowns on runs (rather than passes) last year. That’s the most by any team since the Bengals in 2000, and the second-most of the last 10 years.

The Vikings last year also scored an unusually high percentage of their touchdowns on running plays.

HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS, 1998-2007

Pct.
68.4 Cincinnati (2000) 13 run, 6 pass
65.4 Tennessee (2007) 17 run, 9 pass
64.7 Minnesota (2007) 22 run, 12 pass
62.5 Oakland (2003) 15 run, 9 pass
61.3 Pittsburgh (2000) 19 run, 12 pass
60.5 Kansas City (2005) 26 run, 17 pass
60.0 NY Giants (2004) 18 run, 12 pass
58.8 Philadelphia 1998) 10 run, 7 pass
58.6 St. Louis 1998) 17 run, 12 pass
58.1 Denver (2005) 25 run, 18 pass
57.8 Minnesota (2002) 26 run, 19 pass
57.5 Jacksonville (2006) 23 run, 17 pass
Philadelphia (2003) 23 run, 17 pass

But that does that stat mean anything?

I ran some numbers on this, looking at all 601 teams from the last 20 years. Of that group, 86 scored more rushing than passing touchdowns. Of that group, 25 of 83 (not counting the 2007 teams) went on to score more rushing touchdowns again the following season. As a group, those 83 teams the following year finished with the following averages:

18.7 TD passes (in 16 games)
14.1 TD runs (in 16 games)

I compared that result to the next 83 teams on the list – teams that finished with almost as many rushing as passing TDs, or with an even 50-50 split. That group finished with the following averages:

19.7 TD passes (in 16 games)
14.7 TD runs (in 16 games)

Looks like, in other words, I dug up a cute stat that doesn’t really mean that much.

I’ve got to get back to work.

—Ian Allan

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