Factoid
I tried to make the point yesterday that when a defense finishes with a lot of fumbles or very few fumbles, that doesn’t tend to have much of a bearing on the next year. Luck, I think, plays a very strong role in how many fumbles a defense will recover.
(Before we etch that in stone, however, let me check into the sack numbers; I would guess that if a team finishes with a whole bunch of sacks, it would tend to finish with more fumble recoveries than a less active defense.)
But I digress. I made the point, then Eric Scolnick wrote in to argue that it’s not the number of fumbles a defense recoveries, it’s what’s done with those fumbles. The Bears in particular, Scolnick argues, are a unit that knows how to pick those up and return them for scores.
Interesting theory. But is there anything to it?
Below are the figures for the last 10 years. Each team has played 160 games, and here’s the number of touchdowns scored on fumble returns for each franchise. The Bears come in below average; they’ve got 8 TDs on fumble returns. That beats only eight other teams.
The average is 8.4, or one about every 19 games.
The Eagles are near the top. That makes sense; they tend to blitz a lot and get a lot of sacks. And it makes sense that the Browns are at the bottom; they’ve generally struggled.
But overall, it looks like an almost random list. The Steelers would be a team you would figure would be in the top 5; they’ve got a great defense every year. They’re down near the bottom. The Lions have been one of the worst teams in the league over the last 10 years, and they’re tied for second.
I don’t see it.
FUMBLE RECOVERY TOUCHDOWNS, 2002-2011
13 San Diego
12 Detroit
12 Philadelphia
11 Cincinnati
11 Green Bay
11 Houston
10 Atlanta
10 Baltimore
10 Indianapolis
10 New England
10 New Orleans
10 Seattle
10 Tampa Bay
9 Arizona
9 Minnesota
9 NY Jets
9 Tennessee
8 Buffalo
8 Denver
8 Miami
8 NY Giants
8 Chicago
8 San Francisco
8 St. Louis
7 Kansas City
6 Carolina
6 Jacksonville
6 Pittsburgh
5 Oakland
3 Dallas
3 Washington
2 Cleveland
—Ian Allan
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Posted by ERIC SCOLNICK | May. 05 at 12:32 PM
You proved me wrong. Good job.