Gronkowski: trying to repeat
Posted May. 15 at 09:07 AM
Calvin Johnson and Rob Gronkowski caught 16-plus touchdowns last year, so they become the latest test subjects in the study “What Goes Up Must Come Down”. It’s not easy for players to duplicate monster seasons.
In this case, we look only at touchdowns – touchdown receptions.
In the last 30 years, 12 players have caught 16-plus touchdowns in a season. Of that group, nobody caught more than 13 the following season. The average for the group was just 8.6 touchdowns. If you want to set aside Sterling Sharpe, since he was forced into retirement by a neck injury, then the average rises to 9.4 TDs for the 11 who actually played.
But it’s not good. Megatron and Gronk are both solid players. I believe both will be the top players at their positions when the magazine comes out. But it would be aggressive and beating the odds to suggest, “I’m taking this guy, because he’s going to catch 14-plus touchdowns.”
What do you think? How many touchdowns are these guys going to score?
BIG SCORERS -- THE NEXT YEAR
TD Next Year
23 11 2007 Randy Moss (N.E.)
22 9 1987 Jerry Rice (S.F.)
18 DNP 1994 Sterling Sharpe (G.B.)
18 4 1984 Mark Clayton (Mia.)
17 13 1989 Jerry Rice (S.F.)
17 12 1995 Carl Pickens (Cin.)
17 10 1995 Cris Carter (Minn.)
17 11 1998 Randy Moss (Minn.)
17 13 2003 Randy Moss (Minn.)
17 ?? 2011 Rob Gronkowski (N.E.)
16 13 2001 Terrell Owens (S.F.)
16 4 2004 Muhsin Muhammad (Car.)
16 3 2007 Braylon Edwards (Clev.)
16 ?? 2011 Calvin Johnson (Det.)
Posted by Moishe Steigmann | May. 15 at 09:27 AM
I'd still take them and comfortably. I think that we can also discard Muhammad and Edwards from this list -- neither ever scored more than 8 TDs in any other season; they were anomalies. All the other guys seem to be legitimate. That's an average of 11.5 TDs. That would be top-4 in each of the past four years. So, while I wouldn't carve their names as the #1 at their positions for 2013, their floor is higher than just about any other player at their position as is their ceiling. That combination, to me, makes each a safe bet as the top pick at their position. For Johnson, it's a no-brainer: he has the track record. For Gronk, it's a little iffier since he has a more limited history. I could see Graham passing him for the top spot. Still, you can't go wrong with Gronk's floor.
Posted by BEN HOGEVOLL | May. 16 at 09:29 AM
I would be a little iffy on Gronk next season.The main reason is Hernandez has about the same talent,infact, Ian had him rated higher than Gronk most of last year.It could be either guy depending on who is covered better.I would almost do a coin flip of who will do better.I would be very surprised if Gronk matches his last year t.d total.
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