Factoid
Both A.J. Green and Julio Jones had big rookie seasons. What kind of improvement can be expected from those guys?
I will not trash-talk either guy. I don’t want to provide any bulletin board material. Those guys might mind up playing in fantasy games against my teams this year.
I will point out, however, that if you look at first-round receivers who’ve gone over 800 yards in the past 30 years, the majority of those guys (and this is surprising) actually finish with fewer catches, yards and touchdowns the next year.
Only 6 of these 19 receivers scored more touchdowns. And only 4 of 19 averaged 10 more receiving yards per game.
If you want to see a prettier version of the figures below, go to the Facebook page.
RECEIVING YARDS: YEAR 1 vs. YEAR 2
Yr1 Yr2 Imp? Year
836 587 -249 1983 Willie Gault
860 1134 274 1984 Louis Lipps
927 1570 643 1985 Jerry Rice
942 964 22 1985 Eddie Brown
820 1208 388 1989 Andre Rison
862 503 -359 1989 Shawn Collins
828 216 -612 1994 Derrick Alexander
1039 987 -52 1995 Joey Galloway
844 963 119 1996 Keyshawn Johnson
836 866 30 1996 Marvin Harrison
924 404 -520 1996 Eddie Kennison
1132 431 -701 1996 Terry Glenn
1313 1413 100 1998 Randy Moss
976 1142 166 2003 Andre Johnson
843 743 -100 2004 Lee Evans
817 687 -130 2004 Roy Williams
1193 372 -821 2004 Michael Clayton
824 942 118 2006 Santonio Holmes
995 1022 27 2007 Dwayne Bowe
RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS: YEAR 1 vs. YEAR 2
Yr1 Yr2 Imp? Year
8 6 -2 1983 Willie Gault
11 15 4 1984 Louis Lipps
4 16 12 1985 Jerry Rice
8 4 -4 1985 Eddie Brown
4 10 6 1989 Andre Rison
3 2 -1 1989 Shawn Collins
2 1 -1 1994 Derrick Alexander
9 8 -1 1995 Joey Galloway
8 5 -3 1996 Keyshawn Johnson
8 6 -2 1996 Marvin Harrison
11 0 -11 1996 Eddie Kennison
6 2 -4 1996 Terry Glenn
17 12 -5 1998 Randy Moss
4 6 2 2003 Andre Johnson
9 7 -2 2004 Lee Evans
8 8 0 2004 Roy Williams
7 0 -7 2004 Michael Clayton
3 8 5 2006 Santonio Holmes
5 7 2 2007 Dwayne Bowe
—Ian Allan
- Comments [4]
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Posted by BEN HOGEVOLL | May. 23 at 09:10 AM
Ian,I have a concern on this subject,but on long term w.rs.Im concerned about Andre Johnson who just had arthroscope on his left knee.He has had to many injuries in my opinion.Did you know, this is his 10th year in NFL?What is your thoughts on him and can you give me a history of w.rs past perfomances who has played 10 seasons? Thanks Ben
Posted by BEN HOGEVOLL | May. 23 at 09:10 AM
Ian,I have a concern on this subject,but on long term w.rs.Im concerned about Andre Johnson who just had arthroscope on his left knee.He has had to many injuries in my opinion.Did you know, this is his 10th year in NFL?What is your thoughts on him and can you give me a history of w.rs past perfomances who has played 10 seasons? Thanks Ben
Posted by IAN ALLAN | May. 23 at 09:37 AM
Ben: I will look into older receivers soon. I will post as a separate chart/item.
Posted by Tod Denison | May. 23 at 04:07 PM
I believe J. Jones might have similar numbers. Can't see defenses rolling their coverage towards him & away from Roddy White