Factoid
The tendency is to get excited when a wide receiver is selected in the top 10. The guy is probably going to step in and go for about 1,000 yards and a bunch of touchdowns. A.J. Green and Julio Jones had good rookie seasons last year.
Justin Blackmon + Blaine Gabbert = AFC South title.
The reality, though, is it’s far more common for these top-10 receivers to do very little in their rookie year.
Below is the chart showing the 30 selected with top-10 picks in the last 20 years.
In bold, I’ve got the ones who either went over 800 yards or caught more than 7 TDs. Far more of these receivers finished under 500 yards or caught fewer than 4 TDs.
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RECEIVERS SELECTED IN TOP 10, 1992-2012
No Yds Avg TD Year
3 20 6.7 1 1992 Desmond Howard (4) Redskins
19 231 12.2 2 1993 Curtis Conway (7) Bears
34 522 15.4 2 1995 Michael Westbrook (4) Redskins
67 1039 15.5 9 1995 Joey Galloway (8) Seahawks
38 517 13.6 4 1995 J.J. Stokes (10) 49ers
63 844 13.4 8 1996 Keyshawn Johnson (1) Jets
90 1132 12.6 6 1996 Terry Glenn (7) Patriots
2 42 21.0 0 1997 Ike Hilliard (7) Giants
52 788 15.2 6 1999 Torry Holt (6) Rams
40 473 11.8 2 1999 David Boston (8) Cardinals
51 592 11.6 7 2000 Peter Warrick (4) Bengals
22 273 12.4 0 2000 Plaxico Burress (8) Steelers
28 276 9.9 3 2000 Travis Taylor (10) Ravens
34 415 12.2 4 2001 David Terrell (8) Bears
39 536 13.7 1 2001 Koren Robinson (9) Seahawks
22 243 11.0 3 2003 Charles Rogers (2) Lions
66 976 14.8 4 2003 Andre Johnson (3) Texans
58 780 13.4 8 2004 Larry Fitzgerald (3) Cardinals
54 817 15.1 8 2004 Roy Williams (7) Lions
27 268 9.9 1 2004 Reggie Williams (9) Jaguars
32 512 16.0 3 2005 Braylon Edwards (3) Browns
24 372 15.5 2 2005 Troy Williamson (7) Vikings
29 350 12.1 1 2005 Mike Williams (10) Lions
48 756 15.8 5 2007 Calvin Johnson (2) Lions
34 420 12.4 3 2007 Ted Ginn Jr. (9) Dolphins
9 124 13.8 1 2009 Darrius Heyward-Bey (7) Raiders
48 625 13.0 2 2009 Michael Crabtree (10) 49ers
65 1057 16.3 7 2011 A.J. Green (4) Bengals
54 959 17.8 8 2011 Julio Jones (6) Falcons
? ??? ??.? ? 2012 Justin Blackmon (5) Jaguars
—Ian Allan
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