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Justin Blackmon / rookie impact

Posted Jul. 28 at 10:26 AM

The tendency is to get excited when a wide receiver is selected in the top 10. The guy is probably going to step in and go for about 1,000 yards and a bunch of touchdowns. A.J. Green and Julio Jones had good rookie seasons last year.

Justin Blackmon + Blaine Gabbert = AFC South title.

The reality, though, is it’s far more common for these top-10 receivers to do very little in their rookie year.

Below is the chart showing the 30 selected with top-10 picks in the last 20 years.

In bold, I’ve got the ones who either went over 800 yards or caught more than 7 TDs. Far more of these receivers finished under 500 yards or caught fewer than 4 TDs.

If you want to see the color version, visit the Facebook page.


RECEIVERS SELECTED IN TOP 10, 1992-2012
   No   Yds   Avg   TD   Year   

    3     20     6.7    1   1992   Desmond Howard (4) Redskins
   19   231   12.2   2   1993   Curtis Conway (7) Bears
   34   522   15.4   2   1995   Michael Westbrook (4) Redskins
   67   1039   15.5   9   1995   Joey Galloway (8) Seahawks
   38   517   13.6   4   1995   J.J. Stokes (10) 49ers
   63   844   13.4   8   1996   Keyshawn Johnson (1) Jets
   90   1132   12.6   6   1996   Terry Glenn (7) Patriots
   2   42   21.0   0   1997   Ike Hilliard (7) Giants
   52   788   15.2   6   1999   Torry Holt (6) Rams
   40   473   11.8   2   1999   David Boston (8) Cardinals
   51   592   11.6   7   2000   Peter Warrick (4) Bengals
   22   273   12.4   0   2000   Plaxico Burress (8) Steelers
   28   276    9.9    3   2000   Travis Taylor (10) Ravens
   34   415   12.2   4   2001   David Terrell (8) Bears
   39   536   13.7   1   2001   Koren Robinson (9) Seahawks
   22   243   11.0   3   2003   Charles Rogers (2) Lions
   66   976   14.8   4   2003   Andre Johnson (3) Texans
   58   780   13.4   8   2004   Larry Fitzgerald (3) Cardinals
   54   817   15.1   8   2004   Roy Williams (7) Lions
   27   268    9.9    1   2004   Reggie Williams (9) Jaguars
   32   512   16.0   3   2005   Braylon Edwards (3) Browns
   24   372   15.5   2   2005   Troy Williamson (7) Vikings
   29   350   12.1   1   2005   Mike Williams (10) Lions
   48   756   15.8   5   2007   Calvin Johnson (2) Lions
   34   420   12.4   3   2007   Ted Ginn Jr. (9) Dolphins
   9   124   13.8   1   2009   Darrius Heyward-Bey  (7) Raiders
   48   625   13.0   2   2009   Michael Crabtree  (10) 49ers
   65   1057   16.3   7   2011   A.J. Green (4) Bengals
   54   959   17.8   8   2011   Julio Jones (6) Falcons
    ?    ???   ??.?   ?   2012   Justin Blackmon (5) Jaguars

—Ian Allan


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