Fantasy Index Scheduletron -- strength-of-schedule analysis

When a team is SUPPOSED to play an easy schedule, does that mean it will actually benefit from playing an easy schedule? (And the same for hard schedules). That’s a topic worth looking it.

Our two schedule outlier teams this year are the two Super Bowl teams. The Patriots project to play the easiest schedule (116-140), while the Giants project to play the hardest (140-116). But what are the odds of it actually playing out that way? When we look back at it in January, will the Patriots have even played an easier schedule than the Giants?

Below are some charts. The first shows the 40 teams that have projected to play “easy” schedules in this century (since 2000). These are teams playing schedules with 140 combined losses (projected losses). So for starters, you can see that New England’s 116-140 isn’t as easy as a typical easiest schedule.

In ballpark terms, here’s out it played out. Of those 40 really easy schedules, a quarter (10) ended up playing schedules that we on the other side of .500. So it didn’t work at all. I’ve got those teams marked in bold (though note that none of those schedules were remarkably difficult).

In my estimation, of the 40 “easy” schedules, about a third wound up playing what I would call easy schedules. That’s just how it looks to me. So in a ballpark sense, a quarter are simply wrong, a third are easy, and the rest are inbetween.

TEAMS WITH EASY SCHEDULES, 2000-2012
(How they actually turned out)
   W   L   T   Pct   Year   
   121   119   0   .504   2000   Arizona
   114   126   0   .475   2000   St. Louis
   108   132   0   .450   2000   Philadelphia
   106   134   0   .442   2000   New Orleans
   104   136   0   .433   2000   Oakland
   98   142   0   .408   2000   Denver
   122   115   3   .515   2002   Cincinnati
   120   119   1   .502   2002   Houston
   119   120   1   .498   2002   Jacksonville
   119   121   0   .496   2002   Pittsburgh
   116   121   3   .490   2002   Cleveland
   127   113   0   .529   2003   Arizona
   122   118   0   .508   2003   San Francisco
   119   121   0   .496   2003   Green Bay
   113   127   0   .471   2003   Seattle
   126   114   0   .525   2005   Philadelphia
   119   121   0   .496   2005   Arizona
   114   126   0   .475   2005   St. Louis
   120   120   0   .500   2006   Green Bay
   107   133   0   .446   2006   Chicago
   124   116   0   .517   2008   San Diego
   123   116   1   .515   2008   Kansas City
   122   118   0   .508   2008   Oakland
   119   121   0   .496   2008   New Orleans
   118   122   0   .492   2008   New England
   109   131   0   .454   2008   Denver
   107   133   0   .446   2008   Buffalo
   127   113   0   .529   2009   Baltimore
   120   120   0   .500   2009   Cleveland
   118   122   0   .492   2009   Chicago
   118   122   0   .492   2009   Pittsburgh
   114   126   0   .475   2009   San Francisco
   109   131   0   .454   2009   Minnesota
   108   132   0   .450   2009   Green Bay
   108   132   0   .450   2009   Arizona
   115   125   0   .479   2010   Seattle
   110   130   0   .458   2010   San Diego
   108   132   0   .450   2010   Arizona
   106   134   0   .442   2010   St. Louis
   112   128   0   .467   2011   Arizona
   ???   ???   ?   ???   2012   New England



I don’t understand why, but there are far fewer “hard” schedules than easy. I would have guessed it would be about the same (this is a zero-sum game), but there are only 27 schedules for teams projectuing to play opponents with 140 combined wins. And this is the group the Giants are in.

The ballpark results are similar. About a third went on to play a difficult schedule. Only 3 of these 27 teams played schedules that finished on the other side of .500.

TEAMS WITH HARD SCHEDULES, 2000-2012
(How they actually turned out)
   W   L   T   Pct   Year   
   138   102   0   .575   2000   NY Jets
   126   114   0   .525   2000   Indianapolis
   124   116   0   .517   2000   Buffalo
   121   119   0   .504   2000   Miami
   120   120   0   .500   2000   Minnesota
   130   110   0   .542   2001   Tampa Bay
   123   117   0   .513   2001   Minnesota
   110   130   0   .458   2005   Miami
   133   104   3   .560   2008   Cleveland
   129   108   3   .544   2008   Pittsburgh
   130   110   0   .542   2008   Cincinnati
   127   110   3   .535   2008   Baltimore
   126   113   1   .527   2008   Jacksonville
   124   115   1   .519   2008   Houston
   123   116   1   .515   2008   Indianapolis
   123   117   0   .513   2008   Minnesota
   134   106   0   .558   2009   Miami
   130   110   0   .542   2009   Carolina
   129   111   0   .538   2009   Tampa Bay
   126   114   0   .525   2009   New England
   125   115   0   .521   2009   NY Jets
   122   118   0   .508   2009   Atlanta
   122   118   0   .508   2009   Buffalo
   106   134   0   .442   2009   New Orleans
   124   116   0   .517   2010   Houston
   120   120   0   .500   2010   Tennessee
   119   121   0   .496   2011   Carolina
   ???   ???   ?   ???   2012   NY Giants


—Ian Allan