Factoid
We like to say that what goes up must come down. When you look at offenses like the Green Bay, Detroit, New England and New Orleans (particularly the Saints) it’s not realistic for them to match their production from 2011.
But the same is true at the other end of the spectrum. When an offense has hit rock bottom, it can’t get any worse. Those offenses almost invariably are better.
Below are the numbers for this century (since 2000).
I’ve listed all the offenses that have averaged no more than 16 points per game. Of this group – of these 37 teams – all but two have scored more points the following season.
I am not saying that you should load up on players from St. Louis, Kansas City, Cleveland, Jacksonville and Indianapolis (I’ve got the 2011 teams in bold). But probably all five of those teams will at least be better than they were last year.
LOWEST-SCORING TEAMS SINCE 2000
How they fared the next year:
Pts Nxt Imp Year
161 285 124 2000 Cleveland Browns
168 283 115 2006 Oakland Raiders
175 289 114 2009 St. Louis Rams
185 226 41 2000 Cincinnati Bengals
193 ??? ??? 2011 St. Louis Rams
196 406 210 2010 Carolina Panthers
197 410 213 2009 Oakland Raiders
204 305 101 2008 Cincinnati Bengals
210 295 85 2000 Arizona Cardinals
211 334 123 2006 Tampa Bay Bucs
212 ??? ??? 2011 Kansas City Chiefs
213 255 42 2002 Houston Texans
216 338 122 2000 Chicago Bears
217 289 72 2002 Dallas Cowboys
218 ??? ??? 2011 Cleveland Browns
219 339 120 2007 San Francisco 49ers
225 284 59 2003 Arizona Cardinals
226 291 65 2007 Kansas City Chiefs
226 279 53 2001 Cincinnati Bengals
231 260 29 2004 Chicago Bears
232 175 -57 2008 St. Louis Rams
232 245 13 2008 Cleveland Browns
232 238 6 2005 Cleveland Browns
235 413 178 2005 New Orleans Saints
238 402 164 2006 Cleveland Browns
239 298 59 2005 San Francisco 49ers
240 359 119 2004 Washington
240 316 76 2005 New York Jets
243 ??? ??? 2011 Indianapolis Colts
243 ??? ??? 2011 Jacksonville Jaguars
243 395 152 2003 Buffalo Bills
243 303 60 2003 New York Giants
244 341 97 2009 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
245 271 26 2009 Cleveland Browns
246 217 -29 2001 Dallas Cowboys
252 336 84 2007 Buffalo Bills
252 291 39 2000 Atlanta Falcons
253 258 5 2001 Carolina Panthers
254 305 51 2005 Detroit Lions
254 276 22 2003 Cleveland Browns
255 309 54 2003 Houston Texans
256 307 51 2001 Washington Redskins
—Ian Allan
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Posted by DAVID GARRICK | Jun. 25 at 01:29 PM
If you eliminate the ones that started rookie quarterbacks the next year because they had been so dismal the previous year, do the numbers change at all?
Posted by Brian Grzybowski | Jun. 25 at 10:24 PM
It looks like strength of schedule plays a role in this trend? A team stinks it up, gets a last place schedule and therefore increases point totals for a year or two. But unless they acquire a game changing talent at an important position (QB, for instance) through the draft or free agency, or bring in a new staff that better deploys the talent then those teams seem to reappear on this list. (btw you let a Washington mascot name sneak through on the bottom there).
Posted by Mike McIlraith | Jun. 26 at 06:10 AM
Wow - the Browns make this list 7 times. And the Cowboys made the list in 2001, and were worse in 2002. Oh Jerry, you clever devil you.
Posted by Roy Sherman | Jun. 28 at 04:31 PM
As bad as the Lions have been during the 2000's, I'm surprised to see them on the list only once.