Factoid
Bruce Irvin and Quinton Coples were two highly regarded pass-rushing defensive ends coming out of college in April, and were the first players at their position selected. Irvin went 15th overall to Seattle, and Coples went 16th to the Jets. What kind of rookie impact can be expected from those two players?
Since 1990, 51 defensive ends have been drafted in the top half of the first round. Only a dozen of those players have recorded even 7 sacks in their rookie seasons; just eight have reached double digits. (Several of those changed positions, playing outside linebacker in 3-4 schemes.) Only two have done it since 2003.
The odds, then, are against either Irvin or Coples helping fantasy coaches in IDP leagues as rookies. It's certainly possible the Seahawks or Jets have landed the next Dwight Freeney, but not likely. New York, for what it's worth, drafted two of those dozen players with 8-plus sacks as rookies (Hugh Douglas and Shaun Ellis). Another of them, like Coples, came out of North Carolina (Julius Peppers).
DEs taken in top 16, sacks, 1990-2011
Year Pick Sacks Player, Team
2002 11 13.0 Dwight Freeney, Colts
1996 3 12.5 Simeon Rice, Cardinals
2003 10 12.0 Terrell Suggs, Ravens
2002 2 12.0 Julius Peppers, Panthers
1997 4 11.5 Peter Boulware, Ravens
2009 13 11.0 Brian Orakpo, Washington
2003 9 10.5 Kevin Williams, Vikings
1995 16 10.0 Hugh Douglas, Jets
1990 14 9.0 Renaldo Turnbull, Saints
2001 4 8.5 Justin Smith, Bengals
2000 12 8.5 Shaun Ellis, Jets
2005 11 8.0 DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys
2001 7 6.5 Andre Carter, 49ers
2007 4 6.0 Gaines Adams, Buccaneers
1995 6 6.0 Kevin Carter, Rams
1992 12 6.0 Marco Coleman, Dolphins
2011 11 5.5 J.J. Watt, Texans
1995 7 5.5 Mike Mamula, Eagles
2011 14 5.0 Robert Quinn, Rams
1998 3 5.0 Andre Wadsworth, Cardinals
1993 6 5.0 Eric Curry, Buccaneers
2010 15 4.5 Jason Pierre-Paul, Giants
2006 1 4.5 Mario Williams, Texans
2000 1 4.5 Courtney Brown, Browns
1994 4 4.5 Willie McGinest, Patriots
2008 2 4.0 Chris Long, Rams
1996 12 4.0 Regan Upshaw, Buccaneers
1991 6 4.0 Eric Swann, Cardinals
2008 8 3.5 Derrick Harvey, Jaguars
1998 6 3.0 Grant Wistrom, Rams
1998 8 3.0 Greg Ellis, Cowboys
1997 14 3.0 Reinard Wilson, Bengals
1993 5 3.0 John Copeland, Bengals
1990 10 2.5 Ray Agnew, Patriots
2009 16 2.0 Larry English, Chargers
2007 13 2.0 Adam Carriker, Rams
2003 14 2.0 Michael Haynes, Bears
2001 10 2.0 Jamal Reynolds, Packers
1995 11 2.0 Derrick Alexander, Vikings
2010 16 1.5 Derrick Morgan, Titans
1994 13 1.0 Joe Johnson, Saints
1993 11 1.0 Dan Williams, Broncos
2009 3 0.0 Tyson Jackson, Kansas City
2009 11 0.0 Aaron Maybin, Bills
2008 6 0.0 Vernon Gholston, Jets
2007 8 0.0 Jamaal Anderson, Falcons
2003 15 0.0 Jerome McDougle, Eagles
1996 5 0.0 Cedric Jones, Giants
1996 16 0.0 Duane Clemons, Vikings
1994 11 0.0 John Thierry, Bears
1990 11 0.0 Anthony Smith, Raiders
--Andy Richardson
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