Surprises in receiving ratings in Fantasy Index Open
Posted Jun. 28 at 10:28 AM
Below are the wide receiver rankings, per the averaging from the Fantasy Index Open rankings. The readers see the wide receiver position a lot differently than I do.
I’ve got what I consider to be the noteworthy picks in bold. And there are four who really stick out to me.
Andre Johnson finishes 3rd. To me, that looks like a huge risk. Johnson will be 31 in two weeks and has had a lot of injury problems. He’s played more than 13 games in only two of the last five seasons. No way does he belong in the top 10 in my opinion.
I am also shocked to see Wes Welker at 7th. Catches a lot of short, dumpoff balls, but very little playmaking ability. They’ve got a lot of other pass catchers in that offense. Welker caught only 14 TDs in the three seasons prior to last year. I don’t have him in my top 20.
Julio Jones looks like a young receiver on the rise; he’s got the speed to score from anywhere on the field, and I put him ahead of teammate Roddy White. But the 92 readers and analysts in this competition have him down at 13th – 8 spots behind White.
Finally, I see Kenny Britt at 24th. He’s a great player, but I wonder about whether he’ll be healthy and can stay on the field following reconstructive knee surgery.
The Fantasy Index Open is like the Experts Poll in the magazine, but it’s open to everyone. The basic rules call for each person to submit a top 20 at each position, with players counting for more points the higher they appear on a list.
The winner will hoist a massive trophy donated by Affordable Trophies. The winner will also compete in the regular Experts Poll in the 2013 edition of Fantasy Football Index magazine, competing against the regular industry pros.
In the wide receiver category, the most aggressive (craziest?) selection belongs to Jeff Tefertiller of Oklahoma City. He dropped Calvin Johnson all the way to 10th. Tefertiller’s top 10: Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, White, Steve Smith, Welker, Marshall, Nelson, Demaryius Thomas, Harvin and Megatron. So Tefertiller has Calvin Johnson as the 4th-best receiver in his own division.
Only five other competitors didn’t rank Johnson first, and none of them dropped him lower than 4th. Eric Huber (Milwaukee), Nathan Priest (Hagerstown, Md.), Russell Ditnes (Jamison, Pa.), Craig Smith (Ozark, Mo.) and our old favorite Rod Dammers of Ringwood, N.J., whom we called out yesterday for his tight ends rankings.
FANTASY INDEX OPEN -- WR
99.3% DET Calvin Johnson
92.7% ARI Larry Fitzgerald
84.7% HOU Andre Johnson
77.9% GB Greg Jennings
75.7% ATL Roddy White
74.2% CIN A.J. Green
67.4% NE Wes Welker
66.3% NYG Victor Cruz
65.2% PIT Mike Wallace
59.6% GB Jordy Nelson
58.8% NYG Hakeem Nicks
58.5% CHI Brandon Marshall
57.7% ATL Julio Jones
50.5% CAR Steve Smith
48.6% DAL Dez Bryant
47.9% DAL Miles Austin
37.3% NO Marques Colston
32.5% DEN Demaryius Thomas
32.1% MIN Percy Harvin
29.5% KC Dwayne Bowe
23.7% TB Vincent Jackson
19.3% PHI Jeremy Maclin
19.2% BUF Stevie Johnson
18.2% TEN Kenny Britt
14.7% PHI DeSean Jackson
Posted by BILL REHOR | Jun. 28 at 11:14 AM
Ian, while I certainly didn't have an agressively "different" board myself, it all brings up an important point. How often does the league leader from the previous year actually repeat the following year? If we all put Rodgers, Foster, Calvin, Gronk, Akers and SF at the top of our lists (as sensible as that sounds right now), what are the chances that it actually pans out? 20 years of gut feeling says that strategy is doomed to fail, but I'd appreciate your insight. Thanks!
Posted by Scott Anderson | Jun. 28 at 11:51 AM
I'm guilty of ranking A. Johnson too high as well (4th). My thought process was Houston is a shoo-in for 10-12 wins this year, and with both Johnson & Schaub healthy, he should have top tier numbers as their #1. My big gaffe was not checking his age; I didn't realize he was 31!
Posted by DANIEL WILLIAMS | Jun. 28 at 12:44 PM
Andre is injury prone, but is a monster. He's still top 5. Bill's comment is accurate. The "top" producer from the year before, rarely repeats, at any position. Whether its due to injury or otherwise, not all guys repeat great seasons. At least 1 of Rodgers, Foster, Calvin and Gronk, will disappoint this season. The trick is .. which one.
Posted by Roy Sherman | Jun. 28 at 04:22 PM
Daniel, that would depend on how you define disappoint. As Bill said, the leaders at any position rarely repeats, so I wouldn't be surprised if only one ended up at the top. However, I don't see any of them falling below the top 5 at their respective position. If Hernandez stays healthy the whole year, I can see him cutting into Gronk's stats somewhat, but will it drop him out of the top 5?
Posted by DANIEL WILLIAMS | Jun. 28 at 08:07 PM
I realize all scoring systems are different, but in a popular large league system that drafts in LV, 8 of the last 16 "top" players at their position (Qb,Rb,Wr,Te), did "not" finish in the top 5 of their own posititon, the following year. I went back to 2007. Only from 2010 to 2011, did all 4 make the top 5, the next year. Thus, 8 of the 12, between 2007 and 2009, did not make the Top 5 at their position the next year. The usual reason was injury.
Posted by KEVIN WEAKLAND | Jun. 29 at 12:51 AM
well lets see AJ only made it through 7 games last season but the year before he went 13 games (not bad) and the two years before that 16 games. Anyone can get hurt and get knocked out for a while but I don't think that last years injuries necessarily translate into him not being able to make it through this season. So lets say he makes it through 12 games (that would be the average of the past 4 years) the question becomes is he better than a lot of these guys over the course of a 12 game season and how many of these other guys on this list are going to get hurt and miss games and I recall a chart and an article y'all had out here not too long ago showing WRs that had a good 1st season but declined significantly the very next year and how many guys on this list will fall to that trend. I don't know I picked AJ as my 3rd I still believe in his ability
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