Factoid
Finally, here’s one that makes some sense. I have been looking at production tied to previous performance; if you select somebody who was a top-5 guy one year, does that make them more likely to a top-5 guy again.
There wasn’t a lot of separation with either kickers or defenses.
But look at passing production. The chart below is based on the last 16 years.
The three best teams, on average, have been the same three teams that led the league in passing production the previous season. And the worst ones have tended to repeat as well. We are tending to see repeats at this position.
The prettier version of the chart has been posted at our Facebook page (fantasyindex.com).
Scoring is based on 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards. Those are per-game numbers. And there’s a little voodoo math in there. In the 1999-2001 seasons, there were only 31 teams, so I left the 16th spot blank (so I wouldn’t mess with the top 10 or bottom 10). In 1996-1998 seasons, I did the same with the Nos. 11 and 21 teams.
But the overall point/trend is clear. The best (and worst) teams are tending to hold in terms of passing production.
(On this chart below the team finishing first the previous year is designated by a “1”, the 2nd-best team from the previous year shows as a “2” and so on.
PASSING PRODUCTION (BASED ON PREVIOUS YEAR)
1 34.5
2 34.4
3 33.2
4 30.7
5 33.0
6 32.3
7 29.6
8 29.8
9 32.1
10 30.0
11 30.8
12 29.5
13 26.9
14 27.4
15 28.5
16 28.9
17 28.6
18 28.0
19 26.7
20 27.1
21 27.2
22 27.1
23 27.5
24 25.7
25 28.0
26 26.4
27 28.6
28 26.8
29 24.9
30 24.4
31 25.9
32 22.8
—Ian Allan
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