Passing production / year-to-year consistency
Posted Sep. 03 at 05:18 PM
The historical, year-to-year consistency of passing offenses is strong. That is, if a team put up good passing numbers last year, that’s a pretty good indication it will put up good passing numbers again this season.
The numbers from the last 16 years appear below.
If a team averaged over 37 points (fantasy passing points) per game, those teams on average came back and averaged 36.5 points per game again the next year – 4 higher than any other class of team. In short, guys like Brees, Brady and Manning are good every year.
We’ve broken down the teams from the last 16 years (over 500 of them) into nine different classes, separated into groups of 2 fantasy points. And the production follows those groups in a staircase walk in exact progression – 37 beats 35 beats 33 beats 31 and so on.
This is not to say that every team that averages 32 fantasy points (and again, just passing production here) will beat every team that averaged 27. These results are based on many teams. But in general, the better the team, the better its chance of success. And the dud teams tend to remain lousy.
A more graphically appealing version of this chart appears on our Facebook page.
Passing production tied to previous year
Pts Last year
36.5 37+ PPG
25.5 under 23
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