Viva Murillo!
If you're an optimist, July is probably your favorite month for fantasy football. You won't lose any games, you won't make any mistakes and all of your players make you smile. If you're in a dynasty or keeper league, you see your team putting it all together and earning you a title. If you play in a redraft league, the guys you're watching look awfully good. There's no doubt you'll grab some difference-makers on draft day, and your gambles will surely pay off.
They won't, of course. Not in August, when you actually put your team together. And certainly not in September, when those guys have to actually do something in real games. By then reality will set in and your perfect team will suddenly look vulnerable. You'll curse your team while you scour the waiver wire for potential starters, research MRI results on Mondays, monitor practice schedules (while searching for the true definition of "limited") and hope that 10th round pick is ready to carry your team for a few weeks.
But forget all that; it's only July! Independence Day is just behind us, summer is here and the old guard looks ready to play: Randy Moss looks like he's better than ever. Chris Johnson is ready for a big year, too, and Adrian Peterson is well ahead of his rehab schedule. Peyton Manning is throwing tight spirals and Michael Vick is ready for a bounce-back season. All systems go from the old stars.
Don't forget the new guys, too: Andrew Luck is impressing everyone with how smart he is on the field. Robert Griffin III has a cannon, and is shocking everyone -- even people who already said he had a cannon. Trent Richardson is expected to do it all in Cleveland; maybe even punt and keep track of downs for the officials! And Michael Floyd has looked so awesome for the Cardinals that Larry Fitzgerald will probably draft him over himself in his fantasy league. The new players will be great, too!
Well, don't you believe a word of it. Not in July, anyway. The teams have their own reasons for putting out the reports you see, and none of them have anything to do with helping you succeed at fantasy football. Coaches want to build up the confidence of their new millionaire employees. Owners and General Managers want to appear validated for their free agent moves and draft day decisions. And the media wants to put out positive coverage to start the year on the right foot and retain access to the team and its personnel throughout the year. If they make enemies before the preseason, interviews will be harder to get and information will dry up. So guess what? Everybody looks great and optimism reigns in paper, on the radio and on the Internet.
As you start your basic preparations for the upcoming season, be very, very skeptical of what you see, hear and read. Start with a clean slate and let more objective analysis weigh heavier than team-generated publicity. Independent voices can still be wrong, but they're more trustworthy than league entities.
And remember that filtering through all the noise is easier said than done. Your local newspaper has a stake in generating positive coverage. So do networks and cable channels that broadcast games. Even among your friends, the die-hard fans aren't going to be objective when it comes to their favorite team's potential. While there's still plenty of time to get everything in order, make a mental note -- now -- to take a few grains of salt with every dish of publicity you digest. You'll be happier for it in September.
Video of the week: There will be many great plays this year, but I doubt any will top this:
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