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When you compete in a draft, it’s a reminder that the other 11 guys don’t see the game the same way you do. Guys that you think should be selected in the third, fourth and fifth round wind up in the first or second round on other boards.
That’s the way it’s playing out in this year’s Fanex League. There are a whole bunch of question-mark running backs, and those guys have been flying off the board a lot faster than I expected.
This is a PPR league with a flex player. Plus you start three receivers. So most teams will wind up starting four wide receivers and only two running backs. The premium, therefore, should be to collect the wide receivers who catch 90-plus balls, but that’s not happening.
RUNNING BACK PICKS THAT SURPRISE ME
1.08 Matt Forte. Offensive line issues. He won’t carry at the goal line. But the fifth running back off the board. A jaw-dropper for me. If I were drafting all the teams, he would be selected in the fourth round.
1.09 Darren McFadden. Great player, but gets hurt every year. I have him as the 26th player on my board.
1.10 DeMarco Murray. Nice player, but not necessarily a reliable workhorse. The 37th player on my board.
1.11 Marshawn Lynch. Takes a beating. Doesn’t catch many passes. He’s No. 33 on my list.
1.12 Trent Richardson. Knee surgery and plays for a lousy team. I’ve got him down at 51.
2.01 Maurice Jones-Drew. Holdout and plays for a bad team putting in a new offense. He’s my No. 27 player.
2.05 Jamaal Charles. He looks pretty good, but he’s splitting time with Peyton Hillis. I’ve got him at 58th.
2.06 Fred Jackson. Older guy and will be spelled by C.J. Spiller. 35th on my board.
2.09 Adrian Peterson. Coming off knee surgery and won’t catch many passes. I’ve got him as the 90th player in this format.
Shockingly, with all the running backs being selected, the No. 5 running back on my board is still sitting out there – Darren Sproles (who’ll catch about 80 passes). I believe Sproles should be selected late in the second round.
But I will not take Sproles with my upcoming pick 3.02.
I grabbed Victor Cruz at choice 2.11 and it will be another wide receiver next time I’m on the clock – Julio Jones, A.J. Green or Roddy White.
- Comments [8]
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Posted by Adam Bjork | Aug. 12 at 11:09 AM
Are there any standard (non ppr, no flex) mock/ expert drafts within the next week or two we can scout?
Posted by DANA DUFFIELD | Aug. 12 at 11:40 AM
I see your point but there is also the basic problem of supply and demand. The RB ranks are thin this year, especially in PPR. In a twelve team league where you have to start at least two RBs it seems you have little choice but to fill at least one of those RB slots in the first two rounds. If you don't you are way behind. You had a nice number two pick and could grab an elite RB in the first so I think you have more of an advantage then later slots.
Posted by john stolzmann | Aug. 12 at 11:57 AM
In my opinion, Sproles is an easy pick here, if available. Like Dana said above, because the RBs are being overvalued, they will be hard to come by. Even if a guy like Julio Jones might get more projected points (and "should" be a higher pick in this scoring system in a vacuum), I feel like Sproles + whatever WR you get in Jones' place will be superior to Jones + whatever RB you get.
Posted by John Evans | Aug. 12 at 12:50 PM
I agree w/ John. Sometimes you have to go with the flow of the draft. Despite whether you think your opponents are crazy or not...they are going to deplete the RB at this rate. You might want to consider bumping projects for your RBs up a round in this scenario. Otherwise you will be left with the Greens/Ridleys/Bushs of the world as your RB #1. I would take Sproles...then hope that a guy like Denarius Moore, Lance Moore, Danny Amendola, and Titus Young late. BTW...the Saints pursuit to find a replacement for Meachem is coming up lame. Morgan will likely be a practice squad again. Roby and Tanner have been the best so far this offseason...but Tanner has practice squad written all over him. Roby is a journeyman special teams player...and the chances of him just stepping in an replacing a legit threat like Meachem is not very good. That leaves Colston as an obvious #1 and Henderson and Moore at #2 and #3. Moore is the Saints backup to have this season. If he can stay healthy I think that he has a good shot at 80 catches 850 yards and 8 TDs. The wild card is Saints 4th round draft pick Nick Toon. He certainly looks the part. He was having a nice camp before suffering a foot injury that has caused him to miss the first two preseason games. But if he comes out and plays well, he is a legit sleeper because the #4 WR spot is his to lose...Henderson offers little more than a good run blocking WR...and Colston and Moore do have significant injury histories.
Posted by L DALE GANDER | Aug. 12 at 02:22 PM
Either strategy can work. Ian can fill up his roster with the best of everything else. The other teams will spend the rest of their draft trying to fill other spots. Meanwhile, Ian will have his pick of sleepers - draft a ton of them, and hope a couple pan out. I used that strategy last year and it bit me in the tukus, but it is a viable strategy. Because the RB position is so volatile, plenty of good RBs come out of the mid and late rounds each year. It's just luck if you picked the right ones.
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Aug. 12 at 02:23 PM
I did give plenty of thought to Sproles. Great option in this format. But if you forget about who's a running back and just look at the six positions, I want guys who catch 90-plus balls and 10-plus TDs. I tried to trade down a few spots, but no takers. So I went with Julio Jones. I will find a decent enough guy to play that second running back spot in rounds 4 thru 8.
Posted by John Evans | Aug. 12 at 07:15 PM
RB truly is a crap shoot this season. After Foster, McCoy, Rice, and Chris Johnson there is nothing but question after question. I can definitely bye the strategy of collecting a number of RBs from the mid/later rounds and hoping for the best. For all I know a guy like Ridley or D. Brown might turn out to be better than a 2nd rounder like Lynch and Richardson. I like Sproles though because I think that he is one of the more predictable backs and stays healthy.
Posted by Michael Oliva | Aug. 12 at 07:45 PM
J Charles split carries with Thomas Jones 2 years ago and was still a top 10 in PPR leagues so I'm not worried about Hillis. Jones ran for 800 yards an 8 td that year I would draft him at 2.05 and be happy with him as a low end 1