DeMarco Murray, first-round pick?
Posted Aug. 20 at 04:35 AM
I'm participating in an extended-format experts draft run by JunkyardJake.com. I've been in this thing for a few years now, suffering a heartbreaking loss in the championship game last season -- getting that far despite using my top pick on Jamaal Charles. I came back this year largely for revenge; I've got to win this thing.
The draft began Saturday morning, and can be seen at this link. I drew the 12th pick, which is kind of a drag, although at least the back-to-back pick eases the frustration somewhat of waiting for other teams to make their selection. The draft has been going on for 48 hours now and we've only made it through two rounds. I try to be calm about these things, because I know people have personal lives and such, but I also get irritated at times. Is it that hard to make a selection within an hour or so?
Anyway. Calvin Johnson slid to the 10th pick, getting so close to me that I had to scan the sports wires to see if he'd been hit by a bus or something that day. With Johnson, the clear elite running backs, and the top 3 quarterbacks all gone, I decided to get the best running back and wide receiver I could. It's a PPR league, and I suspect Ian might have gone with two wideouts here. My feeling is I'm going to get a wideout at 3.12 who's pretty similar to the one I'd have taken if I'd gone WR-WR with my first two picks. With my third pick 9 selections away and some top guys still available, I think I'm correct.
After considering Darren Sproles, Trent Richardson and Marshawn Lynch, I went with DeMarco Murray at 1.12. I like the guy's talent, I like the paucity of backups in Dallas, I like the way receiver injuries should make him an even bigger part of the passing game, at least early in the year. I like that he's not in a committee (Sproles), currently hurt (Richardson) or limited by a likely third-down back (Lynch). And none of those guys have even been selected yet, so maybe I'll be able to get one of them at 3.12.
At wideout I went with Julio Jones. If you've read about his offseason or seen either of his preseason games, you know he's tearing it up so far. I want no part of Andre Johnson, so it was an easy choice for me.
Check the link out, and if you have recommendations for my next two picks, or simply want to rip my selections, have at it. I'm thinking RB-QB with my next two picks, or maybe WR if Victor Cruz is still there. I'll continue to update things every few days over the next two weeks.
And the speed this thing is moving at, maybe even longer than that.
Posted by Troy Tretola | Aug. 20 at 05:21 AM
I have done two mock drafts from that spot and I also went RB/WR with my first two picks. Both times I picked Julio Jones too as well as Run DMC instead of Murray (it's a gamble at RB, but somewhat so is Murray). For 3/4 I like the WR/QB play and here's why - twice I was able to pick up either Jordy Nelson or Victor Cruz, both I feel are better values than the RB's left at that time like: Turner, Bradshaw, Ridley, etc. I also get that low 2nd/high 3rd tier first string QB like Matt Ryan or Mike Vick before the drop of into the abyss on QB's. Ive then used my 5/6 picks to grab 2 rb's like Shonn Green, Ben Jarvis, Donald Brown, Kevin Smith, or Peyton Hillis..at least the first four are starters and Hillis should do well this year. After that its up to you, but this at least fills a really good WR corp and a decent backfield to work with...just my 2 cents or by the length of the comment, 4 cents. Good luck!
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 20 at 05:26 AM
Thanks for the comments. I would have been all over McFadden if he'd made it to my pick. As for whether I'll go with a running back next pick, it depends if Lynch/Richardson makes it to me. Sproles was just taken; he would have been a strong possibility. We will see. I might even go WR-WR. (Nelson is gone, but Cruz is still there.)
Posted by David Barenborg | Aug. 20 at 12:19 PM
Can someone explain why Forte has moved from 15 to 8 in the RB rankings for the 8/20 Index update (yardage/TD) yet you say that "Bush's ability has you cool on Forte"???
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 20 at 12:39 PM
Our expectations for Forte's production are unchanged; he shows up at 11.4 fantasy points per game on both sheets (yardage/TD). The notable statistical change, from what can I see, is his projected games changing from 15 to 16, which would have increased his overall production and moved him up. Perhaps Ian will weigh in to explain that change, but I know our overall feelings on his per-game production are the same.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 21 at 06:13 AM
DRAFT UPDATE: Victor Cruz made it back to me at 3.12. None of the running backs I mentioned above did, so I considered tight end Aaron Hernandez or an additional WR along with Cruz. Instead I opted for Doug Martin, who I thought was a clear level above the other remaining RBs. Four rounds in I'll start DeMarco Murray, Doug Martin, Julio Jones and Victor Cruz. Next two picks I'll probably grab a QB (about 4 good ones left) and either a WR or, in the unlikely event Hernandez makes it, a TE.
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