How early is too early for a quarterback?
Posted Aug. 22 at 06:35 AM
Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees are typically going in the top 15 or so picks, while Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton go in the next 10 or so. When should the next quarterback be drafted?
I'm participating in an extended-format experts draft put on by JunkyardJake.com right now. The full draft can be seen at this link. In the draft, as expected, those above five quarterbacks went in the first two rounds. Michael Vick went in the third, but I'm going to call that an outlier pick; he shouldn't go before the fourth or fifth round in most drafts. And after that it was two full rounds before Eli Manning, Matt Ryan and Tony Romo were selected -- so, late fifth, early sixth.
I took Ryan at 6.01, two picks after Manning (who I'd probably have taken instead). Then Romo went.
To me the question is, could all of those guys have slipped another couple of rounds? If Manning hadn't been taken, or if I hadn't taken Ryan, could those of us who took QBs there have waited a little bit longer? And are those guys markedly better than Philip Rivers, who is still out there and now -- with all but three teams having quarterbacks -- potentially set to fall another round or two, at least?
And an additional question, based on how he's looked in the preseason, is -- could all of us have waited even longer on a quarterback, and been just fine with Andrew Luck as a starter? What about Ben Roethlisberger? It seems pretty clear Pittsburgh won't have a punishing running game this year; they should do plenty of passing.
Three rounds from now, I bet either Rivers, Roethlisberger or Luck will be there. Will Matt Ryan give me so much of an advantage that I should have taken him where I did? I'm not so sure.
Some of it comes down to draft position. If I'd had an early pick, I might have taken Stafford or Newton at the end of the second round myself. But once those five guys are gone, it looks like you can wait several rounds before taking another quarterback. Maybe as many as four or five, and still get a really good one.
I'm pleased to have Ryan as my quarterback. He's got two great wideouts and what figures to be a declining running game. But I think I could have passed on him, taken another RB, WR, or a top-5 TE, and then taken a pretty comparable quarterback two rounds later.
Be interesting to see what's there when my pick comes up again.
Posted by GREGORY BLAKE | Aug. 22 at 08:55 AM
Would you have taken Brees or Brady instead of Murray if one of them had somehow slipped you? And if so, how would you feel about the pick in hindsight?
Posted by Jason Spann | Aug. 22 at 09:00 AM
I would say this draft is an anomaly. It looks as if the 7 teams that didn't get the top 5 were clearly waiting for a run at the next tier of QBs, and that, for whatever reason, Rivers is being underrated. I mean, are you implying that the 2+ point per game difference between Ryan and Roethlisberger is comparable? Or are you saying, who knows what's going to happen, so just wait?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 22 at 09:22 AM
Gregory, I would rather have Murray and Ryan/Eli than Brady/Brees and the running back I would have had to settle for if I'd passed on Murray there. In another draft Brady made it to the middle of the second and I took him there, but I wouldn't do it at 1.12. Jason, I don't think this draft is an anomaly at all, at least in terms of where QBs are being selected. Ryan/Manning/Romo/Rivers are going in about the fifth/sixth rounds based on the ADP sites I've looked at. I'm wondering if the 2-point per game difference between Ryan and Roethlisberger is as big as the point per game difference between the WR/RB/TE I could have taken at 6.01, and the one I'll end up selecting at 8.01. Will Ryan/that player be better than Roethlisberger/the player I could have taken instead of Ryan. As for Rivers falling, it's no doubt in part due to WR and OL injuries. But for that stuff I'd have probably taken him over Ryan; I've always been a Rivers fan. But there are a lot of negatives around the Chargers right now.
Posted by Jason Spann | Aug. 22 at 11:03 AM
I would expect to see those guys drafted earlier in a 12 team league vs 10 teams. And obviously, you're drafting guys based on what you think their potential is. Your 6th round pick has more potential than your 8th round pick, no matter what position. Who actually ends up being the better pick? It's a coin flip. Don't think it's worth worrying about.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 22 at 11:37 AM
Plus Roethlisberger and Rivers have been drafted in the last five picks, and the draft still hasn't made it back to me. Looks like if I'd passed on Ryan I'd be hoping for a big season from either Luck or maybe Jay Cutler. Some people might be OK with that...I think I'm glad I took Ryan, in retrospect.
Posted by Juvien Galzote | Aug. 23 at 04:05 PM
Andy, I'm in a 12 team PPR which awards big for QB's (6 pts passing, 1 pt / 25 yards, with 3 point bonus for 300+ yard games. Historically, the owners make serious runs at QB within the first three rounds or so. I've always waited and stockpiled better values. With our scoring system, would you consider drafting QB early? I have the 8th pick this year and guessing one of the top 3 would fall to me in the first and maybe Cam and Stafford falling back in the second. What would you do if you were in our league from the 8th and 12th position? Thanks
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 23 at 06:51 PM
I would be happy with Stafford in the 2nd or waiting to get Eli in the 5th. I don't really like taking a QB first unless you really don't like the RBs there.
Posted by Bob Heaps | Aug. 24 at 09:14 AM
Andy, you really wouldn't consider Brady at 1.12? I'm in a 10 team, non-ppr, 1 keeper league with the second pick in the first round. 10 players are protected and I anticipate choosing between Chris Johnson and Tom Brady (my keeper is Ray Rice). I am leaning towards Brady, but just read your comments above at essentially the same position.
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