This week's Fantasy Index Weekly is available now.

DALLAS (vs Chicago):
The Cowboys should have enough to win on Monday night, but we’re not confident they’ll put up big numbers. Their offense has some problems right now (it’s scored only 7 and 16 points the last two weeks), and the Bears are playing well on defense. Chicago completely shut down St. Louis (granted, not a huge deal), but it also played well the previous week at Lambeau, limiting Aaron Rodgers to 219 yards and one touchdown. The Packers scored only 23 points in that game, and one of their touchdowns came on a fake field goal. ... Dallas isn’t running the ball well. DeMarco Murray is a big, fast back, but the offensive line isn’t good enough. It’s particularly weak in the middle, and the holes simply aren’t there. Murray ran for only 38 yards on 18 carries last week -- in a home game against Tampa Bay. The previous week, he picked up only 44 yards on 12 attempts at Seattle. The Cowboys also had gone nine straight games without a rushing touchdown before Murray scampered in last week. He’ll face a Chicago defense

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that’s allowing only 76 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per game. It’s not a disaster matchup -- at least he’s at home -- but we don’t expect Murray will have a big game. ... We also have some concerns about Tony Romo. He’s a talented guy, but he’s getting put under pressure, and that makes it tough on any quarterback. He’s finished with a passer rating around 75 in back-to-back weeks. He went only 23 of 40 at Seattle, with 1 TD and 1 interception, and he went only 25 of 39 against Tampa Bay, with no touchdowns, one interception and 4 sacks. This is a good Chicago defense he’ll face -- one that was tough against Aaron Rodgers two weeks ago. We think it makes sense to slot Romo for less-than-usual statistics -- about 250 yards and 1-2 TDs. ... Going lower on Romo, that means we’re also going lower on the pass catchers. Dez Bryant has been plagued by drops and fumbles. Jason Witten comes off the worst two-game stretch of his career -- he’s also dropping those balls. Best we can say for those guys is that they’re both definitely aware they need to bounce back. Miles Austin leads the team with 14 catches for 243 yards and 2 TDs. Neither Witten nor Bryant has scored yet (hey, they’re overdue). Kevin Ogletree had the huge game in the opener but has been a non-factor the last two weeks. ... We like the Cowboys Defense. It’s got pass-rush ability and great cornerbacks, and the Bears offense is capable of completely falling apart. Jay Cutler has thrown 6 interceptions so far, and he’s been sacked 11 times. We’ll also speculate that Dez Bryant is more likely than usual to score on a punt return. He scored on 2 of those his rookie year -- one came against Chicago, and the other came in a home Monday night game. We like this defense this week. ... We also are putting Dan Bailey higher than usual. The Cowboys are at home, and we believe they’ll win. That works in favor of Bailey. And it’s an offense that right now lacks finishing power. Dallas last week scored 3 field goals and only one touchdown. When the Cowboys were at home about this time last year for a Monday night game against Washington, the offense was in a similar way and Bailey chipped in 6 field goals. Only six times in league history have kickers scored 7 or more field goals in games, and two of those were Cowboys playing at home in Monday night games -- Chris Boniol against Green Bay (1996) and Billy Cundiff against the Giants (2003). We are not promising 4 field goals for Bailey, but there seems to be some karma there.

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