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Offenses continue to trend towards passing

Posted Oct. 04 at 03:50 PM

We’re a quarter of the way through the season, so we’re far enough in that we can start looking at some overall numbers. And the shift from run to pass that we’ve seen in recent years is continuing.

Some quarterbacks have underachieved or been disappointments – Rodgers, Stafford, Newton and even Brady and Brees in varying degrees. But others are playing much better than expected, most notably Matt Ryan and Andy Dalton.

Overall, teams are averaging 258 passing yards per game. That’s the most in league history. If this holds up, it will be the 4th year in a row that passing yards league-wide set an all-time record.

Teams are also on pace to average 23.9 TD passes – the most ever.

Scoring is up. Teams are averaging 23.7 points, the most ever.

Rushing production, meanwhile, is trending downwards. Teams are averaging only 111 rushing yards per game, which is the fewest ever – down 6 from last year. And teams are on pace to average only 12.3 TD runs, which I think will be the 2nd-fewest since the 1970 merger.

The charts below show how the 2012 numbers project to compare with the last 10 years.


POINTS PER GAME, 2002-2012
   Year   Points
   2012   23.7
   2011   22.2
   2010   22.0
   2008   22.0
   2007   21.7
   2002   21.7
   2004   21.5
   2009   21.5
   2003   20.8
   2006   20.7
   2005   20.6


PASSING YARDS PER GAME, 2002-2012
   Year   Yards
   2012   258.0
   2011   244.8
   2010   236.3
   2009   232.3
   2007   228.3
   2002   227.0
   2004   225.3
   2008   224.2
   2006   219.3
   2005   218.2
   2003   213.8


AVERAGE TD PASSES (PER SEASON), 2002-2012
   Year   TDP
   2012   23.9
   2010   23.5
   2011   23.3
   2004   22.9
   2007   22.5
   2009   22.2
   2002   21.7
   2003   20.4
   2006   20.3
   2008   20.2
   2005   20.1


RUSHING YARDS PER GAME, 2002-2012
   Year   Yards
   2003   117.9
   2006   117.3
   2011   117.1
   2009   116.7
   2004   116.6
   2002   116.1
   2008   116.0
   2010   114.5
   2005   112.5
   2007   110.9
   2012   110.0


AVERAGE TD RUNS (PER SEASON), 2002-2012
   Year   TDR
   2008   14.9
   2002   14.4
   2005   13.5
   2009   13.4
   2003   13.3
   2006   13.3
   2004   13.0
   2011   12.5
   2010   12.5
   2012   12.3
   2007   12.1

—Ian Allan

Readers' Comments

Posted by JEFF FOSTER | Oct. 05 at 08:03 PM

Wonderng if u considered that passng is always up in frst part of season until the weather turns bad?..perhaps by week 13 they will level off and not improve over last year?...patriots seem more commited to the run than in recent years, for example..just a thought....

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