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CINCINNATI (at Cleveland):
Here’s the first repeat game of the 2012 season, and though Bengals opened as a 3-point favorite, this looks more like a pick ‘em-type game with the home field switched. The Bengals beat Cleveland 34-27 back in Week 2 in a game that was pretty even. Cincinnati got a touchdown on a punt return, while the Browns gained 64 more yards. Both of the 2011 games were extremely close. The Bengals got two late touchdowns to win 27-17 at Cleveland, and then won 23-20 at Paul Brown Stadium later in the year. ... The Browns are allowing 4.7 yards per carry and rank 26th in run defense. Ahmad Bradshaw ran for 200 against them last week. So seemingly everything is set up for BenJarvus Green-Ellis to punch out his first 100-yard game of the season. But we’re not particularly interested in recommending

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him. We’ve made that mistake before. He ran for only 75 yards on 21 carries against Cleveland back in Week 2. He played against an even worse Jacksonville defense two weeks ago; they tried to build it around him in that game – gave him 26 carries – and he finished with only 82 yards. He’s averaging only 3.3 yards per attempt. He’s just a guy, as they say, and he may have caught a considerable break last week when Bernard Scott tore his ACL. (Otherwise, the Bengals probably would be seriously mulling going to more of a 50-50 committee type deal.) Green-Ellis needs a great line to run behind; he needs big holes. And any chance of that happening in Cincinnati died when they lost two interior starters in August. He’ll probably finish with his usual 60-80 yards in this game, and he’s not a big part of their passing game. ... Joe Haden is a key player in this game. He’s one of the very best cornerbacks in the game – a Darrelle Revis type talent – so he potentially could slow down A.J. Green. Haden, recall, was suspended for four games, so he missed the earlier meeting (in which Green caught 7 passes for 58 yards and a touchdown). We won’t suggest that those with Green look to sit him down. If Haden’s out there, that probably means the Browns far more often will be willing to risk leaving Green in single coverage. A receiver of his caliber doesn’t see single coverage often. But we’re leery enough of Haden that we’re putting Green lower than usual. And looking at the numbers from last year, we believe there’s something to the theory that it’s best to avoid Joe Haden.

Haden against franchise receivers, 2011

Andy Dalton has been very good thus far. He’s completing 66 percent of his passes and averaging 269 yards, with 9 TDs. He killed the Browns in Week 2, completing 24 of 31 passes for 318 yards, with 3 TDs (with 1 interception). That gave him a passer rating of 128.2. One of his best games last year was in the second meeting against Cleveland, when he went 21 of 31 for 270 yards, with a touchdown and no interceptions. But we are leery of the Red Rifle. Joe Haden adds a big piece to that secondary, and this game is in Cleveland. We got burned last week when we suggested that Dalton would have little trouble against what appeared to be a lesser Miami pass defense. Our gut feeling is that Cleveland is playing well enough that a victory in one of these kind of games is overdue. We’ll put Dalton down for average-type passing numbers, but we’re not particularly excited about him. ... As trickle-down from the A.J. Green analysis, we’re going a little higher on the other pass catchers – Jermaine Gresham, Armon Binns and Andrew Hawkins. If the Browns have some success against Green – if Joe Haden at times scares Dalton away from his No. 1 receiver – then more balls will have to go elsewhere. Binns played his best game of the season in the earlier meeting, catching all 5 passes thrown his way. Gresham caught 4 of the 5 balls thrown to him, and he caught 11 passes and 2 TDs in the two Cleveland games last year. Hawkins turned a short pass into a 50-yard touchdown in the earlier game. All of these guys appear higher than usual on our board. ... We don’t see it as a knockout-type matchup for Mike Nugent. He’s scored 9, 10 and 11 points in his last three games against the Browns, but this one’s in Cleveland and we think Cincinnati could sputter at times. In their other two home games this season, the Browns have allowed only 5 and 6 kicking points (to the Eagles and Bills). ... The Browns are starting a rookie at quarterback, and he’s the NFL’s lowest-rated starter. So it makes sense to rank the Bengals Defense higher than usual. Marvin Lewis loves to get after the quarterback; Cincinnati has 18 sacks. But the same theories were all there last time and didn’t come to fruition. Brandon Weeden got sacked only twice, and he didn’t throw any interceptions. Weeden seems to come from the Ryan Fitzpatrick School of Quarterbacking – better to throw a ball up for grabs than to take a sack. Weeden has been sacked only 9 times in five games, but he’s thrown 9 interceptions. The Bengals returned a punt for a touchdown in the earlier game, but we don’t see them as any better than average in terms of kick return teams.

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