Factoid
Chicago hosts Carolina on Sunday, and that gives Matt Forte another chance to run against a defense he burned for 205 yards in September last year. It’s an issue we kicked around in the Weekly.
When a back runs for 200 yards against an opponent, does that have any impact on the next meeting? Does that tend to mean there’s a favorable matchup, and he’ll probably run for 130-plus yards again?
Or does it underscore for the victim, for that next meeting, that they have to be darn sure they don’t let that running back run all over them again.
I picked through the numbers. In the last 10 years, finding all 200-yard rushers who’ve then run against the same defense either later that year, or in the next season.
The numbers aren’t as good as you might expect. Only 9 of 23 went over 100 yards in the return meeting. And only 9 of 23 ran for a touchdown (and for the figures below, those are just rushing touchdowns – not pass catches or kick returns).
On average, these backs carried 20 times for 89 yards against these defenses the next time around, with 12 TDs (rushing TDs) in 23 games.
That’s pretty similar to what we expect from Forte on Sunday. We expect he’ll be good. (He also catches passes). But it’s not realisitic to hope for 130-plus yards. Those games are rare.
200-YARD RUNNERS MEETING SAME DEFENSE, 2002-
Att Yds Avg TD Year Running back (Opp)
13 36 2.8 0 2002 Shaun Alexander (Oak)
22 205 9.3 2 2003 Jamal Lewis (Clev)
42 153 3.6 1 2003 Ricky Williams (Buff)
16 93 5.8 0 2003 LaDainian Tomlinson (Den)
19 79 4.2 0 2003 Tiki Barber (Phil)
26 111 4.3 2 2004 LaDainian Tomlinson (Clev)
19 71 3.7 1 2004 LaDainian Tomlinson (Oak)
20 57 2.9 0 2004 Jamal Lewis (Clev)
26 126 4.8 1 2005 Rudi Johnson (Clev)
16 80 5.0 0 2005 Tiki Barber (Wash.)
29 144 5.0 0 2006 Frank Gore (Sea)
17 68 4.0 0 2006 Larry Johnson (Cin)
27 109 4.0 0 2007 Willie Parker (Clev)
21 92 4.4 0 2007 Jamal Lewis (Cin)
20 78 3.9 2 2007 Adrian Peterson (Chi)
9 20 2.2 1 2007 Shaun Alexander (GB)
23 109 4.7 0 2009 Thomas Jones (Buff)
9 25 2.8 0 2009 Frank Gore (Sea)
26 111 4.3 1 2010 Chris Johnson (Jac)
14 41 2.9 0 2010 Jamaal Charles (Den)
5 12 2.4 0 2010 Jonathan Stewart (NYG)
23 158 6.9 1 2011 Arian Foster (Ind)
23 84 3.7 0 2011 Ray Rice (Clev)
? ? ? ? 2012 Matt Forte (Car)
—Ian Allan
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Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Oct. 26 at 07:43 AM
FYI: Reports are that Aaron Hernandez did not make the trip to London.