Fantasy Index Scheduletron -- strength-of-schedule analysis

I can offer some good news – a flicker of good news – for the struggling Eagles. The schedules indicate they’ll play the easiest schedule the rest of the way.

These are based on how teams are currently playing (their current win-loss records). Play against the Giants, for example, and that counts as 6 wins and 2 losses against you. And I’ve looking here at just Weeks 9-16; most fantasy leagues don’t use Week 17, so I’m leaving that out. (And that happens to be the week the Eagles play the 6-2 Giants.

Anyway, Eagles, Broncos, Raiders and Falcons project to play the easiest schedules going forward. Saints, Vikings, Lions, Bears and Seahawks project to play the hardest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, REMAINING (Weeks 9-16)
    W    L    Pct
   21   37   .362   Philadelphia
   21   36   .368   Denver
   21   36   .368   Oakland
   24   34   .414   Atlanta
   24   33   .421   Kansas City
   24   33   .421   San Diego
   23   31   .426   NY Jets
   26   32   .448   Indianapolis
   23   28   .451   Washington
   26   31   .456   Tampa Bay
   23   27   .460   Cleveland
   27   31   .466   Dallas
   27   30   .474   Carolina
   27   30   .474   Cincinnati
   28   30   .483   Pittsburgh
   29   31   .483   Miami
   29   30   .492   Baltimore
   30   29   .508   Houston
   27   26   .509   San Francisco
   31   28   .525   Jacksonville
   31   28   .525   Buffalo
   27   24   .529   New England
   30   24   .556   St. Louis
   30   23   .566   Green Bay
   29   22   .569   Tennessee
   29   22   .569   NY Giants
   31   22   .585   Arizona
   31   22   .585   Seattle
   38   25   .603   Chicago
   37   23   .617   Detroit
   33   19   .635   Minnesota
   38   20   .655   New Orleans


Recall, above, that the Broncos project to play one of the easiest schedules the rest of the way. Now look at this chart, which shows what they’ve done so far. Denver has played the league’s hardest schedule so far, against seven teams that have gone 27-16. That makes Denver’s schedule seem even more impressive – it’s been hard, and now it’s going to get a lot easier.

Note that these records, to keep them more impartial, don’t include the team’s own work. With Atlanta, for example, its opponents currently show at 18-25. Their combined record is actually 18-32 – 0-7 against Atlanta, and 18-25 against the rest of the league. So an easy schedule, just not THAT easy.

If you leave each team’s own wins and losses in there, the tendency will be for good teams to appear to have easy schedules, with the bad terms inaccurately appearing to have played hard schedules.


STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, SO FAR (Weeks 1-8)
    W    L    Pct
   27   16   .628   Denver
   31   19   .620   NY Jets
   27   18   .600   Dallas
   27   18   .600   Philadelphia
   26   18   .591   Jacksonville
   31   23   .574   San Francisco
   29   22   .569   Green Bay
   25   19   .568   Carolina
   28   22   .560   Tennessee
   26   21   .553   Detroit
   28   23   .549   Washington
   29   24   .547   Arizona
   29   24   .547   St. Louis
   24   21   .533   Houston
   26   27   .491   New England
   26   27   .491   Seattle
   24   25   .490   Cleveland
   22   24   .478   Miami
   21   23   .477   Baltimore
   20   22   .476   Kansas City
   20   22   .476   Oakland
   22   25   .468   Indianapolis
   24   28   .462   Minnesota
   19   25   .432   Chicago
   22   29   .431   NY Giants
   19   26   .422   Pittsburgh
   18   25   .419   Atlanta
   20   28   .417   Buffalo
   18   26   .409   San Diego
   17   28   .378   Cincinnati
   17   28   .378   Tampa Bay
   15   29   .341   New Orleans


—Ian Allan

SOURCE: Fantasy Index research.

Updated through Week 8’s games.

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