Ask the Experts
Posted Nov. 01 at 06:08 AM
ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them:
How big of a factor do you allow weather to play in your weekly lineup decisions?
Weather does not play a huge factor in my decisions except in absolute extreme conditions. Wind is the main deterrent as rain doesn't typically have as big an effect on the passing game as most think, again, save extreme rains. Do I prefer dome players towards the end of the season, yes. I try and have dome/sunny weather kickers just to be safe and it never hurts when your QB has more dome games than not. The actual adjustment of my lineup however tends to play more so due to production and match ups than it does to weather. It would take a pretty big wind or rain storm for me to change my week to week lineup. That said, it never hurts to looks ahead, depending on your record, and prepare for those who play in better weather scenarios come playoff time.
FFBLife.com is a company started by fantasy football lovers, for fantasy football lovers. With rankings, forums, latest news and advice, mobile applications, draft tools, social networking and more; Fantasy Football Life solely exists to reach the goal of providing all fantasy football players with everything they need. Nelson is editor-in-chief of FFBLife.com and the Fantasy Football Draft Guide, providing rankings, advice and articles for the company.
Unless it's a blizzard, I don't allow weather to affect my starting lineup choices. Wind is very overrated and rain isn't far behind. As for snow, I remember when Tom Brady torched the Titans for five TD passes (I believe) about 3-4 years ago, so snow can be overrated at times too.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers a preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, a multi-use fantasy drafting program including auction values, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is a four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a former columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
To me, it is more about wind really than rain and snow. There are endless examples of big offensive performance in the snow and rain, and while not super snowy, last year's Week 17 mega-explosion at Green Bay against Detroit is a fair example. I'd say start your studs and don't worry about it unless it is really windy (a la the Pittsburgh Steeler game a few years back when they literally couldn't throw the ball ten yards because of wind). That said, I would avoid kickers in bad weather. I also might use the weather to break a tie on two close players.
Dynasty Rogues is the fantasy football information site run by fantasy football enthusiasts for fantasy football enthusiasts. The site includes a year-round approach to analyzing football information for those in dynasty and redraft leagues. Dynasty Rogues won the 2008 Fantasy Index Experts Poll.
Tip #120 from my second book, Fantasy Football Tips: Treat Mother Nature with respect, i.e do not ignore the weather. I refer to NFLweather.com weekly. Winds affect the QB, WR and K. Swirling winds are the worst, a steady wind can be compensated for with their passes or kicks. I do not worry too much about snow. Many RBs and WRs love snow because they know where they are going and can use the snow to their advantage. Heavy snow is a problem (think blizzard) which affects visibility (anyone remember Kurt Warner in Foxboro week 16 of 2008?). Kickers do not like heavy snow either since it reduces the distance a ball can travel. Rain affects players differently; so it is not that big of a factor to me. Cold can hurt the warm weather/dome teams especially in mid to late November and December. Really cold weather is good for RBs especially those that get to carry the ball in the second half of the game. Those defenders are cold and tired and the RB is just warming up! Night games late in the season generally favor RBs as the sun goes down. To summarize, there are certain weather situations which I do take into account when ranking players for the week, but most (like rain or a steady, windy day) are not that big.
Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at www.ExtraPointPress.com, at all major bookstores, and at Amazon and BN.com. He is a 20-plus year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 competitors) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). Follow him at his website, www.ffguidebook.com.
Weather tends to be overrated, I think. Usually, you’ll hear about cold temperatures or an incoming storm, but it’s rare that that such weather actually shows up at the exact time to have a big affect on the game. So I tend to downgrade kickers, quarterbacks and pass catchers just a little. Today’s kickers are so good that they can hit field goals pretty reliable inside 40 yards in almost any kind of weather. I remember seeing Phil Dawson hit a 49-yard field goal in a blizzard against Buffalo a few years back. And some receivers look like they might actually benefit from playing in poor weather — like it gives them a footing advantage against the defensive backs. When Matt Flynn threw 6 TDs against Detroit last year, it was in less than ideal conditions.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at www.fantasyindex.com.
Obviously not enough, as last Sunday I sat 10 rows up in the very soggy Dawg Pound, through Hurricane Sandy's initial thrust, rooting for strong-armed Brandon Weeden to hit "Flash" Gordon with a long--or any--TD pass. Being in 3 leagues, I had Weeden as my flex player in one, Gordon as a WR in my second, then forced to play Robert Meachem in my third due to Jordy Nelson's hammy. All 3 were terrible statistically, in fact, Meachem dropped an easy ball that would have been a 51 yd TD, Gordon had a low pass go off his fingers in the end zone, and Weeden barely broke 100 yards passing.
Sachs runs Perfect Season Fantasy Football, offering live personal advice from training camps through the Super Bowl. His 20-plus years of fantasy football experience includes his league’s only perfect season, as well as a wire-to-wire championship in Fantasy Index's 2011 Mock Auction Draft League. Visit "The Coach" at his website: perfectseasonffb.com and follow him on Twitter: at http://twitter.com/#!/ffbcoach.
First, I'd like to say thanks to all who have passed along well wishes for my family and I. We are safe and although without power to the house everyone is alright and that's what matters to me. Please keep those more affected in your thoughts, it's terrible in some parts of the state of NJ.
To the question, none. The only real effect I have seen is on kickers and punters (Sean Landeta anyone?)...Ben Roethlisberger is a pro, along with all the other Pro QBs throwing the ball. They can do it well even in windy/rainy conditions. Mike Vick being the exception this season. Weather doesn't deter the pros and it doesn't deter my fantasy lineup.
BFDFANTASYfootball.com is now in its 9th season of providing hard core fantasy football advice. Born out of the High Stakes games BFD has featured hundreds of draft reviews for subscribers. The site's focus on advice designed to help players understand more of what's going on behind the scenes has made the BFD Coaching Tree one of the must-read articles of the year, every year. Subscribers get hardcore advice that is worth using in their leagues.
I pay attention to the forecasts, but the weather has to be extremely nasty before I consider benching players. It really depends on the situation, type of weather, player's position and location. I have been burned a few times by sitting players in inclement weather games for options in more favorable conditions, so it comes down to what my other options are. The best advice, I think, is to temper your expectations for anyone playing in sloppy conditions.
Since 1996, KFFL.com has been combining its award-winning news service with fantasy analysis. KFFL.com offers services including daily news, draft guides and in-season advice. Now 100 percent free, KFFL.com is your destination for fantasy baseball, football and NASCAR cheat sheets, tips, sleepers and much more. KFFL.com has won more than a dozen expert championships and was listed as "One of the 10 essential sports-related online destinations for fans, athletes and fantasy owners" by Time.com. KFFL.com has provided content to USA Today, Yahoo! Sports, and FOXSports.com among many other organizations.
For the most part, heavy wind is the only thing I worry about significantly. If the winds are gusting in the 25-30 range, it's a problem. Anything over that and passing is almost impossible. That said, weather can change quickly and what looks like a mess at 12:30 can be fine at 1:15. Add it all up and here's my conclusion: I think most fantasy owners take weather more seriously than they should.
Pianowski has been playing fantasy football for 18 years and writing about it for 15. He joined Yahoo! Sports in 2008 and has been blogging 24/7 on RotoArcade.com ever since.
The effects of weather are almost always overstated but the one caveat I offer is that wind is the only real issue. Rains and even snow can have a minor effect on a game but usually just makes the game less comfortable for the players. It does not actually impact their performance and at times some offensive players do better when the defense cannot get their footing as well. But wind wreaks havoc on kickers obviously and impacts the ability to make deeper throws. Watch for the wind but downplay the rest.
Dorey is the co-founder and lead NFL analyst for The Huddle and author of Fantasy Football: The Next Level. He has projected and predicted every NFL game and player performance since 1997 and has appeared in numerous magazines, newspapers, radio and television.
For the most part I tend to believe the best players -- quarterbacks, receivers -- can manage it and should not be benched for lesser options in better weather. I considered sitting down Matt Ryan and Julio Jones with weather forecast in Philly last week, but not too strongly, and it's a good thing. I will occasionally favor kickers playing in domes, or avoid passers and receivers in snowy conditions, but if I've got a top player, I don't tend to sit them down.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for more than ten years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Nov. 01 at 01:41 PM
Andy: Need a D with NE on bye. Was (v Car), Den (@ Cin), Cin (v Den), SD (v KC), Oak (v TB), Det (@ Jax), Car (@ Was) are FA. Sacks worth 2 points and Cin, Car and Den are 1, 2, 3 in sacks YTD and Was has the most points YTD. I'm leanin toward SD in what should be a good matchup on a short week v Matt Cassel and KC or Denver's D that is playing well against a Cincy team that gives up a good bit of fantasy points to defenses. What are your thoughts? Thanks much.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Nov. 01 at 06:43 PM
Too late to use S.D. If you didn't already. Regardless, I have Denver highest and am using them in a league myself.
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.