Fantasy Index Scheduletron -- strength-of-schedule analysis

Who would have thought that at the halfway point of the season, both the Eagles and Cowboys would be 3-5? Heck, who would have thought that EITHER of those teams would be 3-5?

There is, however, a flicker of hope that one of those teams might play its way back into the playoffs. Both will be helped by much easier schedules going forward. The Eagles and Cowboys, in fact, by our projections should play the easiest schedules in the league in the next seven weeks.

The turnaround is the steepest for the Cowboys. Through the first nine weeks, they’ve played the hardest schedule so far.

The Vikings, Lions and Saints project to play the hardest schedules from this point on. (New Orleans still has a pair left against 8-0 Atlanta).

The Bucs, Chargers and Bengals appears to have played the easiest schedules so far.


STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- REMAINING (Weeks 10-16)
    W    L    Pct    
   21   37   .362   Philadelphia
   22   36   .379   Dallas
   22   35   .386   Denver
   22   35   .386   Oakland
   20   29   .408   Cleveland
   24   33   .421   Indianapolis
   25   34   .424   NY Jets
   25   32   .439   Cincinnati
   25   32   .439   Kansas City
   25   32   .439   Pittsburgh
   26   32   .448   Atlanta
   26   32   .448   Miami
   23   27   .460   Washington
   27   30   .474   Buffalo
   28   28   .500   Carolina
   28   28   .500   San Diego
   28   28   .500   Tampa Bay
   30   28   .517   Houston
   29   27   .518   New England
   30   27   .526   Jacksonville
   30   27   .526   San Francisco
   26   23   .531   Tennessee
   31   27   .534   Baltimore
   31   27   .534   St. Louis
   27   22   .551   Seattle
   29   22   .569   Green Bay
   29   21   .580   NY Giants
   30   19   .612   Arizona
   38   23   .623   Chicago
   38   19   .667   New Orleans
   41   19   .683   Detroit
   34   15   .694   Minnesota


A note on this second chart, which shows strengh of schedule so far. It’s the combined wins and losses of opponents through Week 9 in games against other teams. That other team element is important. If you leave teams’ own games in there, then good teams tend to appear to have easy schedules, and bad teams appear to be victims of bad luck.

With the Falcons, for example, they’re 8-0. So whatever teams they’ve played will start off as a combined 0-8. So we leave those games out of there. (Though it winds up not mattering in that case, because Atlanta’s opponents are still just a combined 24-33 – it’s a weaker slate.)

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- SO FAR (Weeks 1-9)
    W    L    Pct    
   39   20   .661   Dallas
   35   21   .625   Denver
   39   25   .609   Tennessee
   34   22   .607   NY Jets
   38   27   .585   Green Bay
   33   25   .569   Jacksonville
   33   26   .559   Carolina
   33   26   .559   Philadelphia
   34   27   .557   San Francisco
   33   27   .550   St. Louis
   35   31   .530   Arizona
   30   28   .517   Houston
   34   32   .515   Seattle
   33   32   .508   Washington
   32   32   .500   Cleveland
   28   28   .500   Kansas City
   29   30   .492   Detroit
   29   30   .492   New England
   27   29   .482   Oakland
   27   30   .474   Miami
   28   32   .467   Indianapolis
   31   36   .463   Minnesota
   26   32   .448   Chicago
   26   33   .441   Buffalo
   26   33   .441   Pittsburgh
   28   37   .431   NY Giants
   24   33   .421   Atlanta
   24   34   .414   Baltimore
   23   35   .397   New Orleans
   23   36   .390   Cincinnati
   22   36   .379   San Diego
   22   37   .373   Tampa Bay

—Ian Allan

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