Fantasy Index Scheduletron -- strength-of-schedule analysis
Below are the various strength of schedule charts, updated thru Week 10. I’ve added a third chart this week, showing not only wins and losses but scoring defense.
First, a look at what’s happened so far. Dallas is only 4-5, but note that the Cowboys have played the hardest schedule in the league. Their opponents have won 60 percent of their games when playing against other teams.
The Bucs, Chargers, Falcons and Steelers have benefitted from playing easy schedules, which makes their accomplishments look less impressive. The Bucs, for example, are 5-4, but those games have been against teams that have gone only 29-45 against the rest of the league.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, SO FAR (Wins/Losses, Weeks 1-10)
Win Loss Tie Pct
45 30 0 .600 Dallas
43 29 1 .596 NY Jets
48 33 0 .593 Tennessee
42 29 2 .589 Green Bay
42 30 0 .583 Denver
42 31 0 .575 Jacksonville
42 32 0 .568 Carolina
41 32 0 .562 St. Louis
40 33 0 .548 Houston
39 34 0 .534 Philadelphia
38 34 2 .527 Arizona
38 35 1 .520 Washington
39 36 0 .520 San Francisco
37 36 0 .507 Cleveland
40 39 2 .506 Seattle
36 36 1 .500 Chicago
37 37 2 .500 Detroit
36 36 0 .500 Kansas City
36 36 0 .500 Oakland
36 37 1 .493 New England
39 42 1 .482 Minnesota
34 38 1 .473 Buffalo
33 39 1 .459 Miami
33 39 0 .458 New Orleans
35 44 1 .444 NY Giants
32 41 0 .438 Cincinnati
31 41 0 .431 Baltimore
31 43 0 .419 Indianapolis
30 44 0 .405 Pittsburgh
29 43 0 .403 Atlanta
29 44 0 .397 San Diego
29 45 0 .392 Tampa Bay
Here’s a look at the next six weeks (leaving out Week 17, since most fantasy leagues are done at that time). The Raiders, Bengals, Eagles and Cowboys project to play the easiest schedules.
The Lions, Vikings, Giants, Bears and Saints project to play the hardest schedules.
UPCOMING STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (wins/loss in Weeks 11-16
Win Loss Tie Pct
19 34 0 .358 Oakland
20 32 0 .385 Cincinnati
21 33 0 .389 Philadelphia
21 32 0 .396 Dallas
22 32 1 .409 NY Jets
22 31 0 .415 Denver
22 30 0 .423 Cleveland
23 31 0 .426 Kansas City
24 30 1 .445 Buffalo
24 29 0 .453 Carolina
25 30 0 .455 Atlanta
25 30 0 .455 Washington
25 29 1 .464 Miami
26 28 0 .481 Indianapolis
27 29 0 .482 Houston
26 27 1 .491 Tampa Bay
27 27 1 .500 St. Louis
28 27 0 .509 Jacksonville
27 26 0 .509 San Diego
28 26 0 .519 Pittsburgh
28 25 1 .528 New England
24 21 0 .533 Tennessee
31 26 0 .544 Green Bay
24 20 1 .544 Seattle
29 24 0 .547 Baltimore
30 24 1 .555 San Francisco
31 23 1 .573 Arizona
32 22 1 .591 New Orleans
34 22 1 .605 Chicago
28 17 0 .622 NY Giants
31 13 1 .700 Minnesota
38 16 0 .704 Detroit
This is the same as above, except using scoring defense. I took the average points allowed by each defense so far, then looked at the next six weeks (again leaving out Week 17).
Four teams project to play their games against teams (on average) allowing over 25 points per game – Colts, Browns, Raiders and Eagles.
The Vikings, Lions and Bears project to play the hardest schedules.
UPCOMING STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (points in Weeks 11-16
Points
25.7 Indianapolis
25.1 Cleveland
25.1 Oakland
25.1 Philadelphia
24.9 Denver
24.9 Houston
24.8 Dallas
24.7 Carolina
24.7 Cincinnati
24.6 Kansas City
24.5 Jacksonville
24.0 NY Jets
23.8 Miami
23.6 NY Giants
23.5 Atlanta
23.4 Tampa Bay
23.2 Green Bay
23.1 Washington
22.9 San Diego
22.7 Pittsburgh
22.6 St. Louis
22.3 Tennessee
22.1 New Orleans
21.8 Baltimore
21.7 Buffalo
20.9 San Francisco
20.9 New England
20.6 Arizona
20.1 Seattle
19.7 Detroit
19.1 Chicago
17.9 Minnesota
—Ian Allan
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