Ian Allan
Peyton Manning against the Colts in the first-round of the playoffs? That’s the way I see it playing out. Denver should be the No. 3 seed in the AFC, while the Colts should grab the final wild card.
That’s what I get, when I combine each team’s current record with how the remaining games should. I assign a probability of victory to each game, and then total up those numbers. (If a team is considered 75 percent likely to win, it gets .75 of a win for that game.)
Byes in the first round: Houston, Atlanta, New England, Chicago.
Other division winners: Denver, Baltimore, San Francisco, Giants.
Wild-card teams: Packers, Seahawks, Steelers, Colts.
Top-5 picks in the draft: Jacksonville, Kansas City, Cleveland, Carolina, Philadelphia.
Wins
12.8 Houston
12.3 Atlanta
11.5 New England
11.3 Denver
10.9 Baltimore
10.9 Chicago
10.8 San Francisco
10.6 Green Bay
9.9 Seattle
9.9 Pittsburgh
9.4 NY Giants
8.5 Indianapolis
8.3 Tampa Bay
8.2 Dallas
7.9 Minnesota
7.5 Cincinnati
7.5 Detroit
7.5 New Orleans
7.2 San Diego
6.8 Buffalo
6.7 Tennessee
6.6 Miami
6.4 Oakland
6.3 Washington
6.3 St. Louis
6.2 Arizona
6.1 NY Jets
6.1 Philadelphia
5.3 Carolina
4.5 Cleveland
3.5 Kansas City
3.0 Jacksonville
GAME-BY-GAME PROJECTIONS
Probability of each team winning each remaining game:
Arizona
10% Atlanta (A)
60% St. Louis (H)
40% NY Jets (A)
10% Seattle (A)
50% Detroit (H)
35% Chicago (H)
10% San Francisco (A)
Atlanta
90% Arizona (H)
50% Tampa Bay (A)
60% New Orleans (H)
55% Carolina (A)
53% NY Giants (H)
55% Detroit (A)
65% Tampa Bay (H)
Baltimore
55% Pittsburgh (A)
55% San Diego (A)
70% Pittsburgh (H)
60% Washington (A)
50% Denver (H)
53% NY Giants (H)
50% Cincinnati (A)
Buffalo
55% Miami (H)
45% Indianapolis (A)
70% Jacksonville (H)
60% St. Louis (H)
45% Seattle (H)
45% Miami (A)
60% NY Jets (H)
Carolina
55% Tampa Bay (H)
45% Philadelphia (A)
50% Kansas City (A)
45% Atlanta (H)
40% San Diego (A)
55% Oakland (H)
40% New Orleans (A)
Chicago
35% San Francisco (A)
85% Minnesota (H)
60% Seattle (H)
50% Minnesota (A)
50% Green Bay (H)
65% Arizona (A)
45% Detroit (A)
Cincinnati
55% Kansas City (A)
65% Oakland (H)
45% San Diego (A)
50% Dallas (H)
45% Philadelphia (A)
40% Pittsburgh (A)
50% Baltimore (H)
Cleveland
30% Dallas (A)
40% Pittsburgh (H)
35% Oakland (A)
60% Kansas City (H)
50% Washington (H)
5% Denver (A)
25% Pittsburgh (A)
Dallas
70% Cleveland (H)
60% Washington (H)
65% Philadelphia (H)
50% Cincinnati (A)
60% Pittsburgh (H)
60% New Orleans (H)
55% Washington (A)
Denver
80% San Diego (H)
70% Kansas City (A)
70% Tampa Bay (H)
70% Oakland (A)
50% Baltimore (A)
95% Cleveland (H)
95% Kansas City (H)
Detroit
45% Green Bay (H)
50% Houston (H)
80% Indianapolis (H)
25% Green Bay (A)
50% Arizona (A)
45% Atlanta (H)
55% Chicago (H)
Green Bay
55% Detroit (A)
45% NY Giants (A)
85% Minnesota (H)
75% Detroit (H)
50% Chicago (A)
90% Tennessee (H)
55% Minnesota (A)
Houston
95% Jacksonville (H)
50% Detroit (A)
65% Tennessee (A)
35% New England (A)
90% Indianapolis (H)
85% Minnesota (H)
60% Indianapolis (A)
Indianapolis
10% New England (A)
55% Buffalo (H)
20% Detroit (A)
60% Tennessee (H)
10% Houston (A)
50% Kansas City (A)
40% Houston (H)
Jacksonville
5% Houston (A)
40% Tennessee (H)
30% Buffalo (A)
45% NY Jets (H)
35% Miami (A)
10% New England (H)
30% Tennessee (A)
Kansas City
45% Cincinnati (H)
30% Denver (H)
50% Carolina (H)
40% Cleveland (A)
30% Oakland (A)
50% Indianapolis (H)
5% Denver (A)
Miami
45% Buffalo (A)
45% Seattle (H)
25% New England (H)
10% San Francisco (A)
65% Jacksonville (H)
55% Buffalo (H)
10% New England (A)
Minnesota
15% Chicago (A)
15% Green Bay (A)
50% Chicago (H)
45% St. Louis (A)
15% Houston (A)
45% Green Bay (H)
New England
90% Indianapolis (H)
75% NY Jets (A)
75% Miami (A)
65% Houston (H)
65% San Francisco (H)
90% Jacksonville (A)
90% Miami (H)
New Orleans
55% Oakland (A)
55% San Francisco (H)
40% Atlanta (A)
40% NY Giants (A)
55% Tampa Bay (H)
40% Dallas (A)
60% Carolina (H)
NY Giants
55% Green Bay (H)
55% Washington (A)
60% New Orleans (H)
48% Atlanta (A)
48% Baltimore (A)
70% Philadelphia (H)
NY Jets
43% St. Louis (A)
25% New England (H)
60% Arizona (H)
55% Jacksonville (A)
45% Tennessee (A)
45% San Diego (H)
40% Buffalo (A)
Oakland
45% New Orleans (H)
35% Cincinnati (A)
65% Cleveland (H)
30% Denver (H)
70% Kansas City (H)
45% Carolina (A)
45% San Diego (A)
Philadelphia
40% Washington (A)
55% Carolina (H)
35% Dallas (A)
40% Tampa Bay (A)
55% Cincinnati (H)
50% Washington (H)
30% NY Giants (A)
Pittsburgh
45% Baltimore (H)
60% Cleveland (A)
30% Baltimore (A)
75% San Diego (H)
40% Dallas (A)
60% Cincinnati (H)
75% Cleveland (H)
San Diego
20% Denver (A)
45% Baltimore (H)
55% Cincinnati (H)
25% Pittsburgh (A)
60% Carolina (H)
55% NY Jets (A)
55% Oakland (H)
San Francisco
65% Chicago (H)
45% New Orleans (A)
60% St. Louis (A)
90% Miami (H)
35% New England (A)
40% Seattle (A)
90% Arizona (H)
Seattle
55% Miami (A)
40% Chicago (A)
90% Arizona (H)
55% Buffalo (A)
60% San Francisco (H)
90% St. Louis (H)
St. Louis
57% NY Jets (H)
40% Arizona (A)
40% San Francisco (H)
40% Buffalo (A)
55% Minnesota (H)
35% Tampa Bay (A)
10% Seattle (A)
Tampa Bay
45% Carolina (A)
50% Atlanta (H)
30% Denver (A)
60% Philadelphia (H)
45% New Orleans (A)
65% St. Louis (H)
35% Atlanta (A)
Tennessee
60% Jacksonville (A)
35% Houston (H)
40% Indianapolis (A)
55% NY Jets (H)
10% Green Bay (A)
70% Jacksonville (H)
Washington
60% Philadelphia (H)
40% Dallas (A)
45% NY Giants (H)
40% Baltimore (H)
50% Cleveland (A)
50% Philadelphia (A)
45% Dallas (H)
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