Fantasy News
OK, I spent way too much time poking around on the quarterbacks. I will speed things up for the other positions. With the tight ends and wide receivers in particular, all of the stuff about the passing game matchups (see the quarterbacks article) still applies.
So for these receiver positions, I’ll just throw out a few more additional thoughts and move straight to the rankings.
For tight ends, it seems like there are three viable options. Tony Gonzalez and Aaron Hernandez on the top tier, Dennis Pitta just a little bit behind them, and Vernon Davis bringing up the rear.
Who would have thought, after the postseason Davis had last year (when he shredded the Saints and Giants) that he’d be just a throw-in. But that’s where he’s at. He was great in his first game with Colin Kaepernick, but he’s done very little since. They’re other tight end, Delanie Walker, has actually been better in most of their games. Davis had a 44-yard catch last week against Green Bay, but he didn’t catch any of the other 4 balls thrown his way.
The best I can say on Davis’ behalf is that it’s a tight end friendly matchup. Atlanta’s defense has been much better against wide receivers than tight ends. The Falcons have allowed only 16 TD passes all year, and only half of those have gone to wide receivers. They’ve given up 6 TDs to tight ends. Just an 8-6 edge on touchdowns to wide receivers versus tight ends, but there are a lot more wide receivers in play.
But whatever. I have no interest in Davis. I chased after one of those stats last week (with Denver’s defense) but got burned.
There’s a similar kind of dynamic with the other side of this game. San Francisco’s defense in the regular season gave up only one more touchdown to wide receivers (9) than tight ends (8). That’s an indication that Gonzalez is probably more likely to score than either Julio Jones or Roddy White. I’m edging Gonzalez ahead of those guys (and I’ll look into the wide receivers more closely later). Not a lot of difference between those Atlanta pass catchers anyway. All three of them are at 8-10 in their 17 games.
Gonzalez averaged 58 yards per game in the preseason. He had 51 last week against a good Seattle defense. He’s caught 9 of his team’s 35 TD passes (a little more than a quarter). We’re moving him up to 30 percent this week, given the matchup.
The other big-time tight end, I think, is Hernandez. Rob Gronkowski is gone for the year. Brandon Lloyd is more of a secondary piece in that offense – a big-play guy. I think Wes Welker and Hernandez will be the guys catching the bulk of the balls there. Hernandez caught 7 passes for 66 yards against Baltimore in the AFC Championship last year (he missed the Week 3 game).
But Gronk has missed a lot of time this year, and Hernandez has come up a little short as a replacement. He hasn’t quite generated that earth-shattering kaboom.
Hernandez with Gronkowski out
No Yds TD
2 36 0 at NYJ
8 97 0 at Mia.
8 58 2 Hou.
10 92 1 S.F.
1 13 0 at Jac.
6 85 0 Hou.
That’s 35 catches, 381 yards and 3 TDs in six games, or an average of about 6 catches for 64 yards per game, with a TD every other week. Tom Brady threw 14 TDs in those games, and Hernandez caught 3 of them – less than a quarter.
As discussed in the quarterback capsule, I don’t think this is a great matchup for the New England passing game. I expect Hernandez will finish with a few more yards than Gonzalez, but I think Gonzalez is more likely to score.
The third tight end, I think, is Dennis Pitta. He’s a pretty good tight end – probably a little underrated in comparison with those guys. He’s caught 8 TDs, only one fewer than Gonzalez (even though the Falcons have 10 more TD passes than the Ravens). Yardage-wise, he’s a notch back from those guys. I’ve got him at 44 yards per game (after tossing out the meaningless Week 17 game).
Pitta caught 5 passes for 50 yards and a touchdown when the Ravens beat New England in Week 3. He also played well against them in the AFC Championship last year, catching 5 passes for 41 yards and a touchdown.
Pitta has been a slight disappointment in the playoffs thus far, with just 5 catches and a touchdown in the two games. I was crushed when he wasn’t more of a factor last week against a Denver defense that’s been really bad against tight ends. When you push the numbers around and try to analyze it, however, there’s little difference between Pitta and the Gonzalez-Hernandez tandem. Pitta is the better “value”. I’d say that with more confidence if another tight end on his own team (Ed Dickson) hadn’t caught more passes last week.
The only other tight end I’ll mention is Michael Hoomanawanui. When Gronkowski was hurt earlier in the year, they worked him into some of that role. Hoomanawanui has enough speed to sneak deep against unsuspecting secondaries. He had a 41-yard catch against San Francisco and a 32-yarder at Jacksonville. I’ll beat they attempt a deep ball to him in this game.
TIGHT END RANKINGS -- 20-10 scoring
Projection
9.2 N.E. Aaron Hernandez
8.3 Atl. Tony Gonzalez
6.6 Bal. Dennis Pitta
5.1 S.F. Vernon Davis
4.8 S.F. Delanie Walker
2.4 Bal. Ed Dickson
1.5 N.E. Michael Hoomanawanui
.5 S.F. Garrett Celek
.4 Atl. Michael Palmer
.2 N.E. Daniel Fells
.1 Atl. Chase Coffman
.1 Bal. Billy Bajema
TIGHT END RANKINGS -- YARDS
Yards
70 N.E. Aaron Hernandez
56 Atl. Tony Gonzalez
44 Bal. Dennis Pitta
36 S.F. Vernon Davis
34 S.F. Delanie Walker
18 Bal. Ed Dickson
11 N.E. Michael Hoomanawanui
3 S.F. Garrett Celek
2 Atl. Michael Palmer
1 N.E. Daniel Fells
1 Atl. Chase Coffman
1 Bal. Billy Bajema
TIGHT END RANKINGS -- TOUCHDOWNS
TDs
.45 Atl. Tony Gonzalez
.37 N.E. Aaron Hernandez
.36 Bal. Dennis Pitta
.26 S.F. Vernon Davis
.23 S.F. Delanie Walker
.09 Bal. Ed Dickson
.07 N.E. Michael Hoomanawanui
.03 Atl. Michael Palmer
.03 S.F. Garrett Celek
.02 N.E. Daniel Fells
.00 Atl. Chase Coffman
.00 Bal. Billy Bajema
TIGHT END RANKINGS -- PPR ranking
Projection
16.2 N.E. Aaron Hernandez
13.7 Atl. Tony Gonzalez
10.5 Bal. Dennis Pitta
8.0 S.F. Vernon Davis
8.0 S.F. Delanie Walker
4.1 Bal. Ed Dickson
2.2 N.E. Michael Hoomanawanui
.8 S.F. Garrett Celek
.7 Atl. Michael Palmer
.3 N.E. Daniel Fells
.1 Atl. Chase Coffman
.1 Bal. Billy Bajema
—Ian Allan
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Posted by Dave (MOJO) Smith | Jan. 17 at 06:31 PM
I'm interested in how you rank the defenses. Will be you be getting to them or is there a cheat sheet for subscribers?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jan. 17 at 07:38 PM
I believe he will do the defenses too. I don't have any numbers in front of me, but am going to try and guess the rankings. I will say San Francisco, New England, Baltimore and Atlanta in that order. Baltimore has the best kick returner, but the worst matchup. San Francisco has the best pass rush, and doesn't take many sacks or turn it over very often, so Atlanta probably last.
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Jan. 17 at 08:13 PM
I will take a stab at the defenses. I will post that tomorrow in the am.