Ian Allan
(This item was originally posted on Wednesday, June 11).
The Chargers, Buccaneers and Bears ranked among the leaders in fumble recoveries (takeaways) last year. But does that make those teams more likely to recover fumbles in 2008?
I don’t think so.
I think fumbles are primarily due to luck, and I think I’ve got the numbers to prove it. I’ve got all of the data for all of the teams since 1990 in a spreadsheet, and based on those numbers, I think the main factor with fumbles is luck. I don’t think it’s something that’s coached or that certain teams try to emphasize.
Consider these numbers:
Since 1990, there have been 24 teams that have had 20-plus takeaways on fumbles in a season. The following year, those 24 teams collectively averaged 13.2 fumble recoveries – barely above the league league (12.7). The majority of those 24 teams, in fact, finished below average in fumble recoveries the following season.
Look at the worst teams, on the other hand. 16 teams have finished with measly totals of 6 or fewer fumble recoveries in a season. That group the following season collectively averaged 12.8 takeaways on fumbles. Of those 16 teams, a 9-7 majority actually finished above average in fumble recoveries the following season.
So in a comparison of the best of the best against the worst of the worst, the best wins out by less than a half of a fumble recovery over a 16-game season. That’s not significant.
If you expand the study to include more teams, the findings are similar.
The 112 teams that recovered 16 or more fumbles (18.3 average as a group), averaged 13.1 fumble recoveries the following year. By a 57-54 margin, the majority of those teams actually finished below average in fumble recoveries the next year.
For the 100 worst teams (finishing at 10 or fewer fumbles), that group as a whole averaged 7.7 fumble takeaways in their pro seasons, but then climbed to 12.0 the next year. So, just one fumble behind the supposedly superior options.
I’m going to look into this more on Thursday. There are more angles I want to explore. But for now, my suggestion is to pay pretty much no attention to last year’s performance in regards to fumble recoveries. The Ravens and Jets (6 fumbles each) ranked last in this category in 2007, but they might finish ahead of the supposedly superior teams.
—Ian Allan
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