Fantasy Index Reader Column
Why you don't want LT. -deviously submitted by Bryan Bertsch
Posted Jul. 26 at 05:06 PM
I’m getting LT this year. Make no bones about it. He is far and beyond the best and safest pick for the 2007 season. This is all contingent, of course, that I value him more than any other owner in my league. I think I do, and to help in that I have done some research as to why LT should NOT be the highest paid player in our auction this year. I will make sure every owner in my league gets a copy.
LT is coming off a season in which he carried the ball 348 times. In addition, he caught 56 balls for a total of 404 touches for the season. That is a lot of wear and tear. But look what he has done since 2001 and you’ll get an even better idea of the mileage on this guy. In the last 6 seasons, LT has 2050 carries and 398 receptions. That’s a total of 2,448 touches, an average of 408 per year. Whoa! Does anyone else see a red flag here?
Running backs typically don’t log on that many touches -- especially year after year. Let’s take a look at some recent workhorses and their history after heavy workloads:
We’ll start with Priest Holmes. Holmes had a three year run from 2001-2003 where he logged 960 rushing attempts and tacked on 206 receptions for a grand total of 1166 touches over three seasons. A meager average of 389 touches per year. After dominating for three seasons what happened to Holmes? Well, in the next three seasons Holmes played in only 15 games with a mere 1343 rushing yards. He slipped pretty fast.
Next on my list is the great Shaun Alexander. In a five season run from 2001-2005 Alexander the Great carried the rock 1653 times. Add another 206 receptions and he tallied 1859 touches. That’s an average of 372 touches per season, well off LT’s 408 per year. And what happened next? A 3.6 yards per carry average and 7 piddly TDs in 2006. Not good for the number one back on many owners’ boards.
Now let’s look at some individual accounts of elite running backs following seasons in which they carry the ball 380 or more times:
1. Terrell Davis, 392 carries in 1998. Next year: missed 12 games, yards decreased by 1,797, TDs decreased by 19.
2. Jamal Anderson, 410 carries in 1998. Next year: missed 14 games, yards decreased by 1,787, TDs decreased by 14.
3. Jamal Lewis, 387 carries in 2003. Next year: missed 4 games, yards decreased by 1,060, TDs decreased by 7.
4. Edgerrin James, 387 carries in 2000. Next year: missed 10 games, yards decreased by 1,047, TDs decreased by 15.
Things all of a sudden don’t look so rosy for LT, do they? Now add all that to the fact he is playing under a new head coach and has a stud backing him up. ... Geez, I might just talk myself out of LT yet!
Naaah, probably not. LT is one of those magical backs who is still in his prime. It’s almost as if he has an energy field around him, repelling any defenders in his trajectory. People who play Madden know all about this. You can credit great blocking, excellent vision, speed and slippery moves -- I call it a bubble. It’s like no defender can get within 2 yards of the guy. If they do, they just bounce off. He’s an untouchable. Emmitt Smith had it, Priest Holmes had it, Shaun Alexander had it and now LT has it. And until he loses it, I want him on my team.
Bryan Bertsch
Minneapolis
Bryan Bertsch is a Meditation Coach and Fantasy Football Enthusiast. Visit his website at www.bryanbertsch.com.
i>Reader columns are submitted by Fantasy Football Index readers. Opinions expressed in reader columns are not endorsed by the publishers of Fantasy Football Index. We're just contributing to the marketplace of ideas. Learn more about how to submit your own reader column.
- Comments [3]
Readers' Comments
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.
Posted by Kevin Grelle | Jul. 26 at 08:24 PM
You forgot the most obvious reason not to target L.T. this year. The Fantasy Index Cover Jinx. I'm a long time L.T. owner and extremely dissappointed to see him on this years' cover.
Posted by Michael Rogers | Jul. 27 at 02:15 AM
This is all very credible academic analysis. You forget one piece of very important information, however. We are talking about LaDainian Tomlinson. At this point last year, he was "one of the top backs in the league." Currently, he is "the best back in football and 'arguably' one of the best backs of all-time." I anticipate that after he plays his usual 16-game season this year, logs another 400 or so touches, and puts another 1600+yard/20+TD season onto the biography that will accompany his future Ohio bust, he will be widely recognized as "the greatest running back of all-time." None of the all-time greats (Sayers, Brown, Sweetness, Dickerson, Sanders, Smith, or Faulk) were as talented, durable, or complete as LT is.
Posted by Craig Rinne | Jul. 27 at 08:18 AM
Whoa there nelly! Not as "talented, durable, or complete"? Maybe if you used "and" there you would have an argument, but each of the three? For example, Jim Brown never missed a game (and I don't think LT has except for a meaningless end of season one), so how can you say LT is more durable? How do you define talented or complete? And so on--but I agree LT is one of the all-time greats, so far--he just needs to keep it up for another few years.