Ian Allan
For those interested in targeting players who’ll be strong at the start of the season, I’m listing strength of schedule information that based solely on the first eight weeks of the seasons.
Based on that info, the Patriots, Raiders, Cardinals and Chargers have the best opening schedules. Players from those teams should tend to do a little better than expected. The Browns, Jaguars, 49ers and Rams, meanwhile, project to play the hardest schedules during the first half of the season.
Also listed here is the strength of schedule information based on scoring point – points allowed. Washington shows up at No. 1 on that list, while Denver and Green Bay are among the worst. But as you’ll read in the strength of schedule feature that appears in the magazine, that form of strength of schedule doesn’t tend to be nearly as meaningful. After looking at the 500ish schedules of the last 15 years, I believe that you’re much better off going by wins rather than points when looking at schedules.
FIRST HALF STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE – WINS
Strength of schedule for the first eight weeks of the 2008 season, based on how opponents played last year. The Patriots project to play the easiest schedule (their first seven games are against teams that went a combined 35-77 in 2007). The Rams project to play the hardest schedule.
W L Pct.
35 77 .313 New England
45 67 .402 Oakland
46 66 .411 Arizona
53 75 .414 San Diego
48 64 .429 Buffalo
58 70 .453 Carolina
51 61 .455 NY Jets
51 61 .455 Philadelphia
52 60 .464 Kansas City
52 60 .464 Seattle
60 68 .469 New Orleans
54 58 .482 Detroit
54 58 .482 NY Giants
55 57 .491 Atlanta
63 65 .492 Baltimore
56 56 .500 Chicago
56 56 .500 Tennessee
57 55 .509 Houston
66 62 .516 Washington
67 61 .523 Dallas
59 53 .527 Miami
59 53 .527 Pittsburgh
68 60 .531 Tampa Bay
62 50 .554 Cincinnati
62 50 .554 Denver
62 50 .554 Indianapolis
64 48 .571 Green Bay
64 48 .571 Minnesota
65 47 .580 Cleveland
65 47 .580 Jacksonville
76 52 .594 San Francisco
73 39 .652 St. Louis
FIRST HALF STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE – SCORING
Strength of schedule for the first eight weeks of the 2008 season, based on how many points opponents allowed last year. Washington projects to play the easiest schedule (their opponents, during those first eight weeks, are against teams that allowed an average of 23.6 points per game last season). The Rams project to play the hardest schedule.
PPG
23.6 Washington
23.4 New England
23.1 San Diego
22.8 Buffalo
22.4 NY Jets
22.4 Oakland
22.3 Kansas City
22.3 Arizona
22.2 Pittsburgh
22.0 Philadelphia
22.0 Baltimore
22.0 Tampa Bay
21.8 NY Giants
21.7 Miami
21.7 Seattle
21.7 Dallas
21.6 Detroit
21.5 Carolina
21.4 Houston
21.4 San Francisco
21.2 Minnesota
21.1 Tennessee
21.1 Cincinnati
21.0 Jacksonville
21.0 New Orleans
21.0 Chicago
20.8 Atlanta
20.8 Cleveland
20.7 Indianapolis
20.7 Green Bay
20.1 Denver
19.7 St. Louis
Compiled on July 1, 2008
—Ian Allan
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Posted by Rob Dammers | Jul. 02 at 01:42 AM
Strenth of Schedule has to be the most overrated stat in football... Toughest Schedules in 2007, and `actual` records: Bills (7-9) Raiders (4-12) Patriots (16-0) Titans (10-6) Colts (13-3) Easiest Schedules in 2007 Rams (3-13) Bucs (9-7) 49ers (5-11) Bears (7-9) Cardinals (8-8)
Posted by L DALE GANDER | Jul. 02 at 10:48 PM
I agree and disagree with the thought SoS is overrated. I think the stats from '07 you just showed outline that good offenses overcome difficult schedules, and bad offenses aren't necessarily better because of an easy schedule. However, if you're projecting a QB to be better this year (Tavaris Jackson), perhaps you should look at their SoS and see how realistic that is. Also, I think divisional strength is often more important and should be taken into account. When 3 of 4 teams in the same division all have an "easy" schedule (AFC West), what is the liklihood that all will succeed? Rather, one of those teams has a good chance to break out. It can be useful, but I agree is often given too much weight when ranking players.