Factoid
Below are some numbers for tight ends. Similar to what we’ve been doing for other positions all week. This one’s based on fantasy production per game (per start, actually – if a guy is a backup and hardly plays, we just left those numbers out). This chart shows the average production per game over the last three years for all tight ends who’ve started at least half of the time.
As with the other lists, first-round picks appear in bold.
There have been five tight ends selected with top-15 choices in the last 11 drafts. Three of those – Gonzalez, Winslow and Shockey – are right near the top of this list. Bubba Franks had a decent career earlier with the Packers (though never as a downfield-type of a receiver), and it’s too early to judge the fifth of those guys (youngster Vernon Davis).
Conclusion: it appears that NFL teams can do a better job of scouting tight ends than the other positions, where it’s more frequent to see top-10 players never pan out at all. If I get the time, I think I’ll put together a study of this. Grade all top-10 picks of the last 20 or 25 years and see which positions have the lowest and highest bust rates.
The numbers for tight ends …
FPG
10.0 Antonio Gates
7.9 Tony Gonzalez
7.8 Kellen Winslow
7.5 Chris Cooley
7.3 Jason Witten
7.2 Jeremy Shockey
7.1 Todd Heap
7.0 Alge Crumpler
6.2 Dallas Clark
6.1 Benjamin Watson
5.4 Heath Miller
5.3 Owen Daniels
5.2 L.J. Smith
5.0 Jerramy Stevens
4.8 Randy McMichael
4.4 Desmond Clark
4.2 Ben Troupe
3.7 Chris Baker
3.4 Alex Smith
3.4 Jermaine Wiggins
3.3 David Martin
3.2 Bo Scaife
3.2 Marcus Pollard
3.2 Daniel Graham
3.0 Courtney Anderson
2.8 Ben Utecht
2.6 Robert Royal
2.2 Bubba Franks
1.8 Michael Gaines
1.7 Stephen Alexander
1.5 Reggie Kelly
1.1 Mark Campbell
0.9 Anthony Becht
0.8 Kyle Brady
0.7 Jimmy Kleinsasser
--Ian Allan
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