Flacco: next big thing? Or next big dud?
Posted Jul. 17 at 04:32 AM
The Ravens have got Joe Flacco under contract. And there's no arguing that he brings an interesting skillset to the table - with his size and arm strength, he looks like he might someday develop into another Ben Roethlisberger.
But turning a talented college quarterback into a productive pro is a tricky business. That's been proven over the years, with an unusually high number of busts at the quarterback position - Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, David Carr, etc.
And the odds of success for quarterbacks dips even more drastically at the draft progresses. The success rate of quarterbacks selected No. 1 overall is actually pretty high. It's when you get later in the first round that you see far more busts than stars. Quarterbacks wouldn't last until later in the first round, of course, if a whole bunch of teams didn't have serious concerns about them.
Consider the chart below. It shows all quarterbacks selected in the second half of the first round since the Dolphins struck gold with Dan Marino with the 27th pick in 1983. Since that time, none of the 13 quarterbacks selected in that range has in hindsight proven to be a great selection.
And Baltimore fans won't want to hear this, but the two quarterbacks who are the most similar to Flacco - the two huge guys - also happen to have been perhaps the two biggest disappointments of this group, Dan McGwire and Jim Druckenmiller.
Quarterbacks selected in the second half of the first round, 1984-2008
Year Player (pick) team
1987 Jim Harbaugh (26) Bears
1991 Todd Marinovich (24) Raiders
1991 Dan McGwire (16) Seahawks
1992 Tommy Maddox (25) Broncos
1997 Jim Druckenmiller (26) 49ers
2000 Chad Pennington (18) Jets
2002 Patrick Ramsey (32) Washington
2003 Rex Grossman (22) Bears
2003 Kyle Boller (19) Ravens
2004 J.P. Losman (22) Bills
2005 Jason Campbell (25) Washington
2005 Aaron Rodgers (24) Packers
2007 Brady Quinn (22) Browns
2008 Joe Flacco (18) Ravens
Posted by L DALE GANDER | Jul. 17 at 11:48 AM
At the very least, this illustrates you're likely to wait 4 or 5 years on these type of guys before they have any fantasy impact at all. Worth noting in keeper leagues.
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