Ian Allan
I'm intrigued by Chicago's Greg Olsen. He had a solid rookie season, catching 39 passes and a couple of touchdowns while playing as a second tight end alongside Desmond Clark.
With a year or experience, he should be more comfortable with the team's offense and the speed of the game. He should be a bigger part of the offense, and his stats should go up - maybe way up.
But hold on.
Other tight ends have been in similar situations in previous years (and playing with far better quarterbacks), and that kind of reasoning generally hasn't held.
Below, see a chart showing the 10 other tight ends selected in the first round of the draft who've caught at least 30 passes in their first year. Of those 10 guys, half actually caught fewer passes in their second year, and only three of those 10 guys scored more touchdowns.
Not saying that Olsen will be a bust. But the Bears do have another quality tight end (Desmond Clark), and maybe the worst quarterbacking situation in the league (with Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton seeming to be their top 2 guys).
On the chart below, the players' first-year numbers appear at the left, in plain text - catches, yards and touchdown. The numbers in bold (again, catches-yards-TD), represent the players' production in their second seasons.
PRODUCTION OF TIGHT ENDS WITH 30+ REC AS ROOKIES:
(1st year) (2nd year)
No Yd TD No Yd TD Name (year) Team
38 589 4 55 781 9 Ozzie Newsome (1978) Browns
46 584 9 32 398 3 Junior Miller (1980) Falcons
36 402 3 33 331 2 Tony Hunter (1983) Bills
81 869 6 63 648 3 Keith Jackson (1988) Eagles
34 387 7 41 582 6 Eric Green (1990) Steelers
34 386 4 48 787 7 Rickey Dudley (1996) Raiders
33 368 2 59 621 2 Tony Gonzalez (1997) Kansas City
34 363 1 36 322 9 Bubba Franks (2000) Packers
74 894 2 48 535 2 Jeremy Shockey (2002) Giants
39 459 6 34 393 5 Heath Miller (2005) Steelers
-Ian Allan
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