Ask the Experts
Posted Jul. 23 at 07:54 PM
ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them:
How much (if at all) does Peyton Manning’s knee surgery affect your ranking of him and the Colts’ other key performers?
The words "Peyton Manning" and "knee surgery" definitely makes one do a double-take. Fortunately this was not a particularly serious procedure and should not have a significant impact on Peyton's 2008 season. Peyton hasn't missed a practice in 11 years. He and Reggie have enough muscle memory down that they could probably play in the dark. We haven't budged our rankings whatsoever on the news. We'd love to see others pass on Colts on the news however and get them at cheaper prices. Arguably Jospeh Addai could garner more work but he's high enough up in our rankings that there is nowhere for him to go (we have Addai slotted after LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson and Steven Jackson and Addai doesn't get above these three regardless).
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None. The Colts expect him to be ready in plenty of time to prepare for the upcoming season, and if he has less time than expected, he won't have any issues getting his timing down pat quickly since nearly the entire offense returns intact in 2008.
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Manning’s knee injury is really superficial; the bursa sac is between the skin and knee cap (I've had this happen). It's a simple procedure and has no impact on the structure of the knee. So I am not downgrading any of the Colts players.
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It was a very minor procedure and we have little doubt that the veteran star will be ready opening day. Of course we'll be monitoring the situation closely but have not made any adjustments to our cheat sheets or player rankings based on this news.
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I'm not a doctor and I don't play one on the internet, let's establish that up front. From the info I've gathered it seems likely that Manning will be ready for the opener, so really it becomes a question of sharpness and timing. Reggie Wayne will need the least amount of reps with Manning to get up to speed, but Anthony Gonzalez (entering his second year) and Marvin Harrison (hardly played last season due to his own knee problem) take a minor hit while Manning is out of practice. At the end of the day I'm not going to overreact to this news -- Manning remains in my QB trinity, Wayne should be a top-5 wideout on anyone’s board, and I'm not going to shift Gonzalez and Harrison more than a couple of slots, at most.
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I think it could have an impact. It’s going to keep him out of a lot of workouts prior to opening day, and that could affect his rhythm and chemistry with his receivers, particularly early in the season. I think it’s reasonable, therefore, to decrease that team’s projection by a touchdown pass and maybe 5-10 yards per game. The injury isn’t quite severe enough, however, that I’m willing to move Manning behind Drew Brees or Tony Romo on my draft board.
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It doesn't. Manning is going to be fine and will be more than ready for week 1 of the regular season. This surgery usually takes 3 weeks to recover from and, chances are, Manning will be ready by the second or third preseason game. Manning's ranking will not be affected by this news and his receivers won't drop either.
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Manning had more of a “procedure” than a surgery and he is slated to be ready to go in plenty of time for the start of the season. It could be argued that there is no player in the NFL that would need less preparation time than Manning, who has never missed a game in his entire career and has been effectively running the exact same offense for years. Even if Manning’s knee was somehow balky -- and it is not -- Manning is a pure pocket passer with outstanding protection. It just would not matter.
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It won't change my ranking of him at all. Manning doesn't need all of training camp, and mobility's not part of his game.
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It doesn't change our ranking of Manning much at all, at least right now. Check this out 2 weeks into camp and if Manning is on track at that point, there is no reason to believe he wouldn't be his normal self from this minor surgery. With a vet like Manning, there isn't much he is going to learn in camp anyway. The real issue will be timing with the other players on offense; will he have enough time to work with the starters in order to be ready for the first week of the season. So as long as he is playing by preseason game No. 2 or 3 he should be OK, so expect more of the same.
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Eary word from the Colts camp is Peyton Manning will be out 4 to 6 weeks. The team is calling the process routine and they expect a full and complete recovery according to Colts president Bill Polian. For now, we see nothing to worry about given the team’s comments. However, come mid-August, Manning’s status will naturally be a major fantasy issue as his presence impacts teammates Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Joe Addai, Marvin Harrison and the entire roster including the team’s defensive ranking.
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It is way too early to be concerned with Peyton’s injury. This may be a “buying” opportunity though, if others place a discount on him, because of his recent knee operation. He has had the same “sac” injury before, so I am not concerned about his ability to recover. I will not drop him in my rankings until we know for sure that he will not make it for game 1. If he will miss game time, then that changes things and his value should be reduced proportionately to how much time he will miss. Don’t worry, this 10 year vet does not need training camp to work on timing with his receivers, if he starts day 1- no problems. If Peyton is not affected, then neither is Reggie Wayne or the others around him.
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Manning himself doesn’t go anywhere; there’s no doubt in my mind he’ll be back for week 1 and put up his usual numbers over the course of the season. I think it maybe makes Addai a more secure No. 4 overall guy in my mind, because the Colts might run a little more early on. And then you have to think it could mean a slightly slower start for Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark -- nothing major, but in the case of Wayne I’ve got him so close to Terrell Owens in that No. 2 wide receiver spot that I can see myself taking Owens ahead of him on draft day. Perhaps Manning and Wayne won’t have the same timing in September they’ve had in the past. So, not a major deal, but guys who I’ve got really close anyway might benefit by slipping ahead of one of Manning’s receivers.
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