Viva Murillo!
The truth is that I like LaDainian Tomlinson. I like watching him play and I've really liked having him on some of my fantasy teams. I don't even mind watching him play against me; I watch the highlights several times, and can't help but admire the skill and ease in which he's buried my teams. He's been that good.
Still, I don't think he'll finish 2008 as the top fantasy RB, and I'm going to tell you why.
Now, I understand that there's already a vocal minority that has been making the same case. But I differ from that group in two important ways: First, they normally present someone else as a plausible replacement. I'm not doing that. My belief isn't based on another guy necessarily stepping up; it's based on Tomlinson taking a few steps down. Second, most of those folks still place him in the top two. I'm not doing that, either. In fact, I think there's a good chance he finishes out of the top three or worse. When I said "a few steps down," I meant it.
So am I crazy? I'd say no, but others might think so. Still, here are my reasons why someone other than Tomlinson will be crowned best fantasy back this year:
- It has to happen sometime. Look, the guy can't be great forever, and 2,800 touches is a decent amount of mileage for a guy that's just outside of 30-years-old. But when he does break down, everyone will know it and that information won't be very valuable. You have to be ahead of the curve and make your moves before the competition does. If this is the year he falters, you'll look like a genius for avoiding him. If not, you're probably just a year or two off. Better to take an early exit than a late one. Ask Terrell Davis owners.
We know that Tomlinson won't be the top back in four years. So there are four possible answers: he has zero, one, two or three years left. I'm saying zero; that's all.
- Norv Turner. Sure, you can say that Turner did a great job by getting them to the AFC title game last year. But I think his slow, methodical dismantling of the Chargers is on schedule. When the team needed six Peyton Manning interceptions (and a missed kick by Adam Vinatieri) to squeak past the Colts in week 9, Turner and Tomlinson had two different expressions in post-game interviews and press conferences. Turner acted like he won the lottery; Tomlinson resembled a losing coach who took no pride in the win. In the playoff victory against the Titans, Turner looked defeated and confused--and that was after a legitimate win. I don't think LT is buying into what Norv is selling, and I think that will hurt the team fantasy-wise.
- Injuries. No, you can't predict injuries--But you can look at Tomlinson's last two games. LT sat on the sidelines for the two most important contests of his life, the last one sulking on the bench as the Patriots defeated the Chargers. I have no doubt that he was too hurt to play, but it dispels his aura of invincibility. If his knee can cost him two playoff games, he's become "mortal" in terms of injury risk. Without a decent backup, I think he'll wear out during the season.
- Norv Turner. Oh, did I mention him already? I must really not like the guy.
So who will be better than LT in 2008? I have no idea. Could be Adrian Peterson, could be Steven Jackson, could be Brian Westbrook...or it could be all three of them. Then there's always somebody who surprises during the season. I'm not saying that those guys don't have their question marks, or that they're better runners than Tomlinson. I just think that, a couple of years removed from his record-breaking season, he sees that his team is playoff-caliber, but not championship-caliber. He's wealthy, he's in the history books and his best days are likely behind him. Think Shaun Alexander. That's where I think Tomlinson is headed.
Of course, I've been wrong before. But I've also been right before. And it's not like the other backs are chump change, either. If you take someone other than LT, you'll still get a difference-maker. Or you could draft him and laugh at me as you coast to a title. But there's something about his situation that I don't like in 2008. I'll still root for the guy, and I'll tip my hat to him if I'm wrong. I just think a little Norv Turner "magic" could derail the team and the best back in football along with it. Or the injury bug will catch up to him. Whatever the reason, I don't think LaDainian Tomlinson will be the top fantasy back in 2008...or ever again.
Youtube Clip of the Week: Even if Tomlinson's best fantasy seasons are behind him, we'll always have this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBqjY4gpyaA
You can reach Michael Murillo at vivamurillo@gmail.com.
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Posted by L DALE GANDER | Jul. 29 at 08:15 PM
I usually fall in line with Mr. Murillo, but here I have a bit of a beef. What good is it to predict LT won't be #1 if you can't predict who WILL be? When you select #1 overall, you're looking for a player with the potential to be #1 as well as the least potential to bust. Even if LT isn't tops, he'll still the best bet to be in the top handful. The other 3 guys you listed all have more question marks than he does and are more likely to fall out of the top 10. The only thing I take out of this article is the end where you predict he'll never be tops again. That, I think, could be the truth - but that doesn't mean I would draft someone else with the #1 pick this year.
Posted by MICHAEL MURILLO | Jul. 29 at 09:38 PM
I totaly understand what you're saying, and I wish I could say it will be Jackson or Peterson or Westbrook. If I had to pick one I'd say Steven Jackson. But really, I'd be guessing. If I had the top pick I'd likely trade down. If you had to keep it I wouldn't blame you for choosing LT; I'm sure most people would, and they might even have the last laugh. But it would be easy for me to make this claim after he slows down; I'm saying it now. At some point in every player's career he hits "that year," the year the stats don't reflect our image of the guy anymore. I think that's 2008 for LT and I don't want to draft him myself.
Posted by bobby stence | Jul. 29 at 11:08 PM
This is the 1st time reading Mr. Murillo's column and it will probably be the last. LT is more of a weapon at running back than anyother back in the league. He puts up monster numbers as a runner. He solid as a receiver at of the backfield. He can break out for long runs at anytime. He also has one of the top lines in the NFL this year. Besides the playoffs last year, when was the last time he saw significant time out on an injury. Turner knows how to use him effectively more than any other coach with this offense. This is a sure fire hall of famer who is in the prime of his career. All of the other top running backs are good, but they are not in the same class as LT this year for the number 1 pick. Take some else and you will be sorry.
Posted by Tim Scott | Jul. 30 at 09:01 AM
Actually I completely agree with Mr. Murillo about LT but not completely about the other 3 mentioned and I'll tell you why. Yes the injury bug has finally bitten, two LT is 29 years old now and his best days are in fact behind him considering the amount of miles on this guy not to mention history. History will tell you that not one back has ever posted better numbers at this stage in their career, especially when they hit 30. I'm sure somebody will argue and flap off about some back getting their best numbers when they were 29 or even 30, but were they the best or one of the best in there day...no sorry you won't find them. Plus, SD's offensive line has been hurt and they are on the mend right now. Next who will be the next Ocho Cinco of backs, well lets take a look. 1) S. Jackson: Healthy for only one year out of five, bad O-line, QB who can't stay healthy, and a Def that can't stay competetive through 4 quarters...no thanks. 2) B. Westbrook: Injuries, injuries, injuries. Again one good year, plus bad QB and no receivers to take off pressure. 3) A. Peterson: Injury history is a concern but all the great backs post good numbers in their first regular season games and AP did just that and more. I think it will be Peterson who takes the mantle this year.
Posted by Paul Owers | Jul. 31 at 04:05 PM
Murillo is right. LT may very well have a decent year, but I don't think he will have been worth the No. 1 pick. Even the top RBs this year have question marks, which is why I will be considering other positions in the first round.