Ask the Experts
Posted Aug. 13 at 08:55 PM
ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly, with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them:
What is your outlook for Brett Favre and the Jets’ key offensive players this season?
Brett Favre is still Brett Favre, and he's succeeded with less talent than he's going to have in New York. His final numbers should still put him in the top 15 and possibly the top 10 if all goes well. Favre has tremendous draft value because there are still a lot of fantasy owners out there who don't trust him in New York. Thomas Jones stands to gain the most fantasy value as he's getting a QB who loves to use his RBs in the passing game. Regardless of the offense the Jets decide to run, Favre will always make it a point to find his backs and use them to his advantage in the passing game. With a proven weapon at QB, defenses can no longer key on stopping the run which should give Jones more room to roam free. Should Dustin Keller win the starting TE job, his value could skyrocket to the top 15. Cotchery and Coles move up a few spots, but I'm not gambling putting either of them in the top 12.
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The addition of Favre is certainly an upgrade at quarterback though hardly the magic bullet that will get the Jets to the Super Bowl. Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery should see improved numbers and likely more so Coles who can take advantage of Favre’s stronger arm on deep routes. But more than anything, Thomas Jones and the rushing game should see the biggest benefit now that defenses are going to have to respect and defend against the pass. Marginal growth in the passing game but a stronger impact for the rushing game.
Dorey is the co-founder and Senior NFL Analyst at The Huddle since 1997. He has produced award winning rankings and has projected the fantasy stats for every game over the last 13 years. David produces the bulk of The Huddle rankings and his “Predictions and Projections” breaks down every single NFL game every week through the Super Bowl. You can find more about David at TheHuddle.com.
I can't get him any higher than 15th on my rankings, which is probably a mistake with this guys ability to overcome a challenge. The offensive system is different than the Packers, the Jets use numbers in place of words in their scheme, that'll take him time to learn. His arm strength and ability to create using his feet give Laveranues Coles and Jerricho a nice boost, they each go up about 5 spots in my opinion. They benefit from a stronger armed QB.
Louis Tranquilli is the founder and the primary "brains" (if you stretch it) of BFDFANTASYfootball.com. BFD is about giving advice to players from a player. Lou's been a highly successful owner in many high stakes contests. BFD is giving away 50 fantasy football teams in 2008.
We expect Favre to struggle with the Jets, we have the following concerns, he has to learn a new offense, the Jets WRs are nowhere near what the Packers have, nor is the Jets running game. Will Mangini be able to control Favre, Mike Sherman wasn't able to do that and Favre had some mediocre years without Holmgren reigning him in. Best guess is 20-24 TDs but 20 INTs for sure. The Jets offensive players get a slight upgrade, Jones at RB has more value as he is likely to garner plenty of dump out of the backfield, the Jets WRs get a slight bump as well, but keep your expectations low.
Kamys is president of Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports. His company, via the web, offers player news, injury reports, cheat sheets, projections, weekly matchups, statistics, and a customized team tracker. Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports also e-mails preseason newsletters and reports throughout the season. For more info visit www.docstats.com or send email to email@example.com.
He’s going to make an impact. That team last year averaged 208 passing yards per game, with only 15 TD passes. With Favre in there, I think you might see an extra 30 passing yards per game and maybe 8 additional TD passes. So I definitely envision there being some extra yards and touchdowns for their receivers. Dustin Keller supposedly has had a solid camp; he’s just a rookie, but I could see him making an impact. At wide receiver, I think the switch will help Jerricho Cotchery a lot more than Laveranues Coles. Coles had a great rapport with Chad Pennington, particularly in the red zone. He caught all 6 of his TDs last year with Pennington at quarterback. Now that’s gone. Cotchery, on the other hand, is a downfield receiver, so I expect him to benefit from playing with a quarterback with a stronger arm. When Pennington was at quarterback last year, Cotchery averaged only 12 yards per catch. With Clemens (who has a stronger arm) at quarterback, Cotchery was up at 17 yards per catch. So I think you’ll see Cotchery making a lot more long plays last year. He’ll really benefit from Favre, just as Greg Jennings did last year. Not that Cotchery is going to be quite that productive, but I’d like to have him on my fantasy roster.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index magazine. He’s also one of the main content contributors for that company’s website, www.fantasyindex.com. His IAN ALLAN’S MAILBAG column is posted on Fridays.
Brett Favre now becomes about a QB15. He had a career year last year with GB, but this year with a new system and supporting cast be prepared for 3500 yards passing, 22 TDs and as many picks. Cotchery and Coles both move up about 5 spots to WR 19 and 20. The gunslinger will get them both some long balls (Cotchery more though). TE Dustin Keller, who is under most owners’ radar, could also benefit, but Bubba Franks may find more time on the field as Brett knows him well. Thomas Jones is the big benefactor, as the improved O-line and Favre will prevent the eight man fronts he saw last year and open up more play action opportunities (his specialty). Bottom line is everyone moves up, but not as much as you would think.
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It's a boost for the two key wideouts (Cotchery and Coles), a small one for Dustin Keller, and a small one for Thomas Jones.
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Favre will not have the numbers he had a year ago but is still a solid #1 fantasy QB. Perhaps the biggest fantasy impact is that 2 underrated WRs in Cotchery and Coles get big bumps. These have been solid performers with a well below average QB, if they can catch the rockets Favre fires they can have bigger numbers this season. Thomas Jones also gets a bump in value as teams will have more respect for the passing threat than they have recently.
Endsley is co-owner and a senior fantasy football consultant for FantasyDraftEdge.com offering customizable fantasy football cheat sheets and professional VIP advice all season long. For more info, go to www.fantasydraftedge.com.
I don't think Favre himself is going to put up huge numbers. Mike McCarthy’s offense in Green Bay was far more wide open than what the Jets will run, and Favre won’t be as comfortable in it. I think he’ll be decent, somewhere in the neighborhood of 3,500 yards and 20 TDs. That, of course, will be a step up for the Jets, so I like Coles, Cotchery and some tight end to benefit. I’m going to go with Dustin Keller to be that guy; he’s a player I had little interest in prior to acquiring Favre but am definitely intrigued by now. And the threat of a downfield passing game should definitely benefit Thomas Jones, who should also catch more passes than he usually does.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for the past seven years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections, as well as various site features. He has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. His A DAY OF FOOTBALL wrap-up column appears Mondays during the NFL season. For more information go to www.fantasyindex.com.
Posted by DARYL DORSEY | Aug. 13 at 11:57 PM
Ian & Andy, You 2 are very close to right on. Ya mix well & that is why your successful together. Do not forget that. Ian your numbers add up & I find myself thinking just like you. Andy your common sense is outstanding!. Keep it up fellows. I'm like a sponge. Mark this down Keller will be very good this year if 0 injury!! & Ya should b promting this kid as potential sleeper of the year right NOW!! Peace, D2
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