Ian Allan

An updated look at how each NFL team should finish, given its current win-loss record and how it projects to fare in its games in the remaining 11 weeks of the season.
Biggest climber this week, I think, is Atlanta. I've got the Giants, Bucs, Titans and Steelers finishing with the first-round byes for the playoffs.

Feel free to chime in if you feel I've got a team way too high or way too low.

 Wins
 11.9  NY Giants
 11.8  Tennessee
 10.7  Dallas
 10.4  Pittsburgh
 10.3  Buffalo
 10.3  Washington
 10.2  Tampa Bay
 10.0  Carolina
  9.9  Indianapolis
  9.9  Arizona
  9.7  Denver
  9.5  New England
  9.5  San Diego
  9.4  NY Jets
  9.2  Jacksonville
  9.2  Philadelphia
  9.1  New Orleans
  8.8  Chicago
  8.2  Atlanta
  8.1  Green Bay
  8.0  Miami
  7.5  Minnesota
  7.0  Houston
  5.9  Baltimore
  5.3  San Francisco
  5.2  Seattle
  5.0  Oakland
  4.3  Cleveland
  3.8  St. Louis
  3.3  Kansas City
  3.0  Cincinnati
  2.0  Detroit

SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION
Projected wins and losses for each team. Percentage figures indicate the likelihood of victory (a 90% number would mean a team would win that matchup in 9 of 10 games):

Arizona
win  San Francisco
win  Miami
loss  Washington
loss  NY Jets
win  Buffalo
win  Dallas
35%  Carolina
67%  St. Louis
85%  San Francisco
50%  Seattle
40%  NY Giants
30%  Philadelphia
95%  St. Louis
65%  Minnesota
40%  New England
85%  Seattle
  
Atlanta
win  Detroit
loss  Tampa Bay
win  Kansas City
loss  Carolina
win  Green Bay
win  Chicago
20%  Philadelphia
50%  Oakland
50%  New Orleans
55%  Denver
45%  Carolina
15%  San Diego
25%  New Orleans
50%  Tampa Bay
25%  Minnesota
80%  St. Louis
  
Baltimore
win  Cincinnati
win  Cleveland
loss  Pittsburgh
loss  Tennessee
loss  Indianapolis
35%  Miami
65%  Oakland
40%  Cleveland
35%  Houston
4%  NY Giants
35%  Philadelphia
45%  Cincinnati
35%  Washington
40%  Pittsburgh
6%  Dallas
45%  Jacksonville
  
Buffalo
win  Seattle
win  Jacksonville
win  Oakland
win  St. Louis
loss  Arizona
50%  San Diego
45%  Miami
60%  NY Jets
35%  New England
80%  Cleveland
75%  Kansas City
90%  San Francisco
65%  Miami
45%  NY Jets
32%  Denver
55%  New England
  
Carolina
win  San Diego
win  Chicago
loss  Minnesota
win  Atlanta
win  Kansas City
loss  Tampa Bay
60%  New Orleans
65%  Arizona
65%  Oakland
98%  Detroit
55%  Atlanta
45%  Green Bay
60%  Tampa Bay
70%  Denver
35%  NY Giants
50%  New Orleans
  
Chicago
win  Indianapolis
loss  Carolina
loss  Tampa Bay
win  Philadelphia
win  Detroit
loss  Atlanta
60%  Minnesota
96%  Detroit
55%  Tennessee
45%  Green Bay
70%  St. Louis
40%  Minnesota
55%  Jacksonville
55%  New Orleans
55%  Green Bay
45%  Houston
  
Cincinnati
loss  Baltimore
loss  Tennessee
loss  NY Giants
loss  Cleveland
loss  Dallas
loss  NY Jets
25%  Pittsburgh
25%  Houston
25%  Jacksonville
25%  Philadelphia
10%  Pittsburgh
55%  Baltimore
10%  Indianapolis
30%  Washington
30%  Cleveland
65%  Kansas City
  
Cleveland
loss  Dallas
loss  Pittsburgh
loss  Baltimore
win  Cincinnati
20%  NY Giants
10%  Washington
15%  Jacksonville
60%  Baltimore
40%  Denver
20%  Buffalo
50%  Houston
20%  Indianapolis
10%  Tennessee
5%  Philadelphia
70%  Cincinnati
10%  Pittsburgh
  
Dallas
win  Cleveland
win  Philadelphia
win  Green Bay
loss  Washington
win  Cincinnati
loss  Arizona
80%  St. Louis
70%  Tampa Bay
45%  NY Giants
45%  Washington
92%  San Francisco
94%  Seattle
50%  Pittsburgh
50%  NY Giants
94%  Baltimore
50%  Philadelphia
  
Denver
win  Oakland
win  San Diego
win  New Orleans
loss  Kansas City
win  Tampa Bay
loss  Jacksonville
45%  New England
70%  Miami
60%  Cleveland
45%  Atlanta
75%  Oakland
45%  NY Jets
93%  Kansas City
30%  Carolina
68%  Buffalo
40%  San Diego
  
Detroit
loss  Atlanta
loss  Green Bay
loss  San Francisco
loss  Chicago
loss  Minnesota
15%  Houston
18%  Washington
4%  Chicago
25%  Jacksonville
2%  Carolina
30%  Tampa Bay
25%  Tennessee
40%  Minnesota
2%  Indianapolis
30%  New Orleans
7%  Green Bay
  
Green Bay
win  Minnesota
win  Detroit
loss  Dallas
loss  Tampa Bay
loss  Atlanta
win  Seattle
50%  Indianapolis
35%  Tennessee
40%  Minnesota
55%  Chicago
45%  New Orleans
55%  Carolina
60%  Houston
35%  Jacksonville
45%  Chicago
93%  Detroit
  
Houston
loss  Pittsburgh
loss  Tennessee
loss  Jacksonville
loss  Indianapolis
win  Miami
85%  Detroit
75%  Cincinnati
45%  Minnesota
65%  Baltimore
25%  Indianapolis
50%  Cleveland
55%  Jacksonville
40%  Green Bay
55%  Tennessee
52%  Oakland
55%  Chicago
  
Indianapolis
loss  Chicago
win  Minnesota
loss  Jacksonville
win  Houston
win  Baltimore
50%  Green Bay
40%  Tennessee
70%  New England
45%  Pittsburgh
75%  Houston
35%  San Diego
80%  Cleveland
90%  Cincinnati
98%  Detroit
50%  Jacksonville
60%  Tennessee
  
Jacksonville
loss  Tennessee
loss  Buffalo
win  Indianapolis
win  Houston
loss  Pittsburgh
win  Denver
85%  Cleveland
75%  Cincinnati
75%  Detroit
55%  Tennessee
65%  Minnesota
45%  Houston
45%  Chicago
65%  Green Bay
50%  Indianapolis
55%  Baltimore
  
Kansas City
loss  New England
loss  Oakland
loss  Atlanta
win  Denver
loss  Carolina
20%  Tennessee
10%  NY Jets
20%  Tampa Bay
3%  San Diego
20%  New Orleans
25%  Buffalo
25%  Oakland
7%  Denver
25%  San Diego
35%  Miami
35%  Cincinnati
  
Miami
loss  NY Jets
loss  Arizona
win  New England
win  San Diego
loss  Houston
65%  Baltimore
55%  Buffalo
30%  Denver
65%  Seattle
65%  Oakland
50%  New England
60%  St. Louis
35%  Buffalo
75%  San Francisco
65%  Kansas City
30%  NY Jets
  
Minnesota
loss  Green Bay
loss  Indianapolis
win  Carolina
loss  Tennessee
45%  New Orleans
win  Detroit
40%  Chicago
55%  Houston
60%  Green Bay
40%  Tampa Bay
35%  Jacksonville
60%  Chicago
60%  Detroit
35%  Arizona
75%  Atlanta
40%  NY Giants
  
New England
win  Kansas City
win  NY Jets
loss  Miami
win  San Francisco
loss  San Diego
55%  Denver
96%  St. Louis
30%  Indianapolis
65%  Buffalo
60%  NY Jets
50%  Miami
65%  Pittsburgh
50%  Seattle
75%  Oakland
60%  Arizona
45%  Buffalo
  
New Orleans
win  Tampa Bay
loss  Washington
loss  Denver
win  San Francisco
55%  Minnesota
win  Oakland
40%  Carolina
50%  San Diego
50%  Atlanta
80%  Kansas City
55%  Green Bay
40%  Tampa Bay
75%  Atlanta
45%  Chicago
70%  Detroit
50%  Carolina
  
NY Giants
win  Washington
win  St. Louis
win  Cincinnati
win  Seattle
80%  Cleveland
98%  San Francisco
55%  Pittsburgh
55%  Dallas
55%  Philadelphia
96%  Baltimore
60%  Arizona
50%  Washington
65%  Philadelphia
50%  Dallas
65%  Carolina
60%  Minnesota
  
NY Jets
win  Miami
loss  New England
loss  San Diego
win  Arizona
win  Cincinnati
62%  Oakland
90%  Kansas City
40%  Buffalo
96%  St. Louis
40%  New England
30%  Tennessee
55%  Denver
55%  San Francisco
55%  Buffalo
50%  Seattle
70%  Miami
  
Oakland
loss  Denver
win  Kansas City
loss  Buffalo
loss  San Diego
loss  New Orleans
38%  NY Jets
35%  Baltimore
50%  Atlanta
35%  Carolina
35%  Miami
25%  Denver
75%  Kansas City
15%  San Diego
25%  New England
48%  Houston
15%  Tampa Bay
  
Philadelphia
win  St. Louis
loss  Dallas
win  Pittsburgh
loss  Chicago
loss  Washington
win  San Francisco
80%  Atlanta
55%  Seattle
45%  NY Giants
75%  Cincinnati
65%  Baltimore
70%  Arizona
35%  NY Giants
95%  Cleveland
45%  Washington
50%  Dallas
  
Pittsburgh
win  Houston
win  Cleveland
loss  Philadelphia
win  Baltimore
win  Jacksonville
75%  Cincinnati
45%  NY Giants
45%  Washington
55%  Indianapolis
60%  San Diego
90%  Cincinnati
35%  New England
50%  Dallas
60%  Baltimore
35%  Tennessee
90%  Cleveland
  
San Diego
loss  Carolina
loss  Denver
win  NY Jets
win  Oakland
loss  Miami
win  New England
50%  Buffalo
50%  New Orleans
97%  Kansas City
40%  Pittsburgh
65%  Indianapolis
85%  Atlanta
85%  Oakland
75%  Kansas City
40%  Tampa Bay
60%  Denver
  
San Francisco
loss  Arizona
win  Seattle
win  Detroit
loss  New Orleans
loss  New England
loss  Philadelphia
2%  NY Giants
60%  Seattle
15%  Arizona
75%  St. Louis
8%  Dallas
10%  Buffalo
45%  NY Jets
25%  Miami
50%  St. Louis
35%  Washington
  
Seattle
loss  Buffalo
loss  San Francisco
win  St. Louis
loss  NY Giants
loss  Green Bay
20%  Tampa Bay
40%  San Francisco
45%  Philadelphia
35%  Miami
50%  Arizona
55%  Washington
6%  Dallas
50%  New England
50%  St. Louis
50%  NY Jets
15%  Arizona
  
St. Louis
loss  Philadelphia
loss  NY Giants
loss  Seattle
loss  Buffalo
win  Washington
20%  Dallas
4%  New England
33%  Arizona
4%  NY Jets
25%  San Francisco
30%  Chicago
40%  Miami
5%  Arizona
50%  Seattle
50%  San Francisco
20%  Atlanta
  
Tampa Bay
loss  New Orleans
win  Atlanta
win  Chicago
win  Green Bay
loss  Denver
win  Carolina
80%  Seattle
30%  Dallas
80%  Kansas City
60%  Minnesota
70%  Detroit
60%  New Orleans
40%  Carolina
50%  Atlanta
60%  San Diego
85%  Oakland
  
Tennessee
win  Jacksonville
win  Cincinnati
win  Houston
win  Minnesota
win  Baltimore
80%  Kansas City
60%  Indianapolis
65%  Green Bay
45%  Chicago
45%  Jacksonville
70%  NY Jets
75%  Detroit
90%  Cleveland
45%  Houston
65%  Pittsburgh
40%  Indianapolis
  
Washington
loss  NY Giants
win  New Orleans
win  Arizona
win  Dallas
win  Philadelphia
loss  St. Louis
90%  Cleveland
82%  Detroit
55%  Pittsburgh
55%  Dallas
45%  Seattle
50%  NY Giants
65%  Baltimore
70%  Cincinnati
55%  Philadelphia
65%  San Francisco

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