Fantasy News

Is it too early to start looking at strength of schedule for 2009?

Two really good divisions this year - NFC East and NFC South. According to our calculations (see below), all eight teams in those divisions have a good chance to finish with at least an 8-8 record. For the NFC East (assuming the Cowboys can get healthy), that division may even end up with every team having a winning record.

As luck has it, those two divisions are scheduled to go head-to-head next year. So pencil in those teams for 10 tough games each. For the winners of those two mega-divisions (Giants and Panthers?), they'll also pick up games against Arizona and the winner of the NFC North. Wow - tough schedules.

Overall, the toughest schedules should go to the NFC South teams. Their AFC pairing is harder - they get the improving AFC East, while the NFC East gets the weakest AFC division - the West, with sure-to-be-lousy Oakland and Kansas City.

The other juicy prize at stake is the NFC West. Everyone would love to have those three games against the 49ers, Rams and Seahawks. That underpowered division will rotate against the AFC South.

BIG PICTURE: DIVISIONAL ROTATION FOR 2009

AFC East - plays AFC South and NFC South
AFC North - plays AFC West and NFC North
AFC South - play AFC East and NFC West
AFC West - play AFC North and NFC East

NFC East - plays NFC South and AFC West
NFC North - plays NFC West and AFC North
NFC South - plays NFC East and AFC East
NFC West - plays NFC North and AFC South

(All teams also play two additional games - against the other two teams in their conference that placed in the same spots in the divisions. Assuming Tennessee wins the AFC South, for example, its two remaining games would be against the AFC North and AFC West winners).


Titans, Giants on track
Right now, based on teams current records and remaining schedules, the Titans and Giants look like the favorites to have home-field advantage for the playoffs. Carolina and Pittsburgh also could be in line for first-round byes, but the Patriots and Bucs are just behind those teams.

All of the figures below are a combination of fact and speculation. Each team gets credit for its existing wins, and each team gets some portion of a win for each of its remaining games. If a team has essentially no chance of winning a particularly game, it's listed down around 5 percent for that game. If it looks certain of victory in a given matchup, it's up around 90-95 percent. When we look at all 256 games, we get the following win totals (out of 16) that you see below.

 Wins
 12.9  Tennessee
 11.9  NY Giants
 11.2  Carolina
 11.2  Pittsburgh
 10.4  New England
 10.2  Tampa Bay
 10.2  Washington
 10.0  Arizona
  9.8  Philadelphia
  9.5  Buffalo
  9.5  Indianapolis
  9.3  Chicago
  9.3  NY Jets
  9.2  Atlanta
  9.0  Dallas
  8.8  Miami
  8.7  Green Bay
  8.5  Baltimore
  8.3  New Orleans
  8.2  San Diego
  8.1  Minnesota
  7.4  Denver
  7.1  Houston
  6.3  Jacksonville
  5.6  Cleveland
  5.1  St. Louis
  4.7  Seattle
  4.3  San Francisco
  4.0  Oakland
  3.1  Kansas City
  2.8  Cincinnati
  1.6  Detroit


SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION

Arizona
 win  San Francisco(A)
 win  Miami(H)
 loss  Washington(A)
 loss  NY Jets(A)
 win  Buffalo(H)
 win  Dallas(H)
 loss  Carolina(A)
 win  St. Louis(A)
 90%  San Francisco(H)
 55%  Seattle(A)
 40%  NY Giants(H)
 37%  Philadelphia(A)
 90%  St. Louis(H)
 65%  Minnesota(H)
 37%  New England(A)
 90%  Seattle(H)

Atlanta
 win  Detroit(H)
 loss  Tampa Bay(A)
 win  Kansas City(H)
 loss  Carolina(A)
 win  Green Bay(A)
 win  Chicago(H)
 loss  Philadelphia(A)
 win  Oakland(A)
 55%  New Orleans(H)
 65%  Denver(H)
 50%  Carolina(H)
 35%  San Diego(A)
 35%  New Orleans(A)
 55%  Tampa Bay(H)
 40%  Minnesota(A)
 80%  St. Louis(H)

Baltimore
 win  Cincinnati(H)
 win  Cleveland(H)
 loss  Pittsburgh(A)
 loss  Tennessee(H)
 loss  Indianapolis(A)
 win  Miami(A)
 win  Oakland(H)
 win  Cleveland(A)
 45%  Houston(A)
 10%  NY Giants(A)
 40%  Philadelphia(H)
 65%  Cincinnati(A)
 45%  Washington(H)
 40%  Pittsburgh(H)
 25%  Dallas(A)
 80%  Jacksonville(H)

Buffalo
 win  Seattle(H)
 win  Jacksonville(A)
 win  Oakland(H)
 win  St. Louis(A)
 loss  Arizona(A)
 win  San Diego(H)
 loss  Miami(A)
 loss  NY Jets(H)
 20%  New England(A)
 75%  Cleveland(H)
 75%  Kansas City(A)
 90%  San Francisco(H)
 60%  Miami(H)
 45%  NY Jets(A)
 45%  Denver(A)
 40%  New England(H)

Carolina
 win  San Diego(A)
 win  Chicago(H)
 loss  Minnesota(A)
 win  Atlanta(H)
 win  Kansas City(H)
 loss  Tampa Bay(A)
 win  New Orleans(H)
 win  Arizona(H)
 80%  Oakland(A)
 98%  Detroit(H)
 50%  Atlanta(A)
 45%  Green Bay(A)
 75%  Tampa Bay(H)
 85%  Denver(H)
 40%  NY Giants(A)
 50%  New Orleans(A)

Chicago
 win  Indianapolis(A)
 loss  Carolina(A)
 loss  Tampa Bay(H)
 win  Philadelphia(H)
 win  Detroit(A)
 loss  Atlanta(A)
 win  Minnesota(H)
 win  Detroit(H)
 48%  Tennessee(H)
 40%  Green Bay(A)
 65%  St. Louis(A)
 42%  Minnesota(A)
 70%  Jacksonville(H)
 65%  New Orleans(H)
 55%  Green Bay(H)
 45%  Houston(A)

Cincinnati
 loss  Baltimore(A)
 loss  Tennessee(H)
 loss  NY Giants(A)
 loss  Cleveland(H)
 loss  Dallas(A)
 loss  NY Jets(A)
 loss  Pittsburgh(H)
 loss  Houston(A)
 win  Jacksonville(H)
 15%  Philadelphia(H)
  5%  Pittsburgh(A)
 35%  Baltimore(H)
  5%  Indianapolis(A)
 25%  Washington(H)
 30%  Cleveland(A)
 65%  Kansas City(H)

Cleveland
 loss  Dallas(H)
 loss  Pittsburgh(H)
 loss  Baltimore(A)
 win  Cincinnati(A)
 win  NY Giants(H)
 loss  Washington(A)
 win  Jacksonville(A)
 loss  Baltimore(H)
 55%  Denver(H)
 25%  Buffalo(A)
 50%  Houston(H)
 25%  Indianapolis(H)
 10%  Tennessee(A)
 10%  Philadelphia(A)
 70%  Cincinnati(H)
 10%  Pittsburgh(A)

Dallas
 win  Cleveland(A)
 win  Philadelphia(H)
 win  Green Bay(A)
 loss  Washington(H)
 win  Cincinnati(H)
 loss  Arizona(A)
 loss  St. Louis(A)
 win  Tampa Bay(H)
 loss  NY Giants(A)
 40%  Washington(A)
 85%  San Francisco(H)
 85%  Seattle(H)
 35%  Pittsburgh(A)
 40%  NY Giants(H)
 75%  Baltimore(H)
 42%  Philadelphia(A)

Denver
 win  Oakland(A)
 win  San Diego(H)
 win  New Orleans(H)
 loss  Kansas City(A)
 win  Tampa Bay(H)
 loss  Jacksonville(H)
 loss  New England(A)
 loss  Miami(H)
 45%  Cleveland(A)
 35%  Atlanta(A)
 70%  Oakland(H)
 25%  NY Jets(A)
 80%  Kansas City(H)
 15%  Carolina(A)
 55%  Buffalo(H)
 15%  San Diego(A)

Detroit
 loss  Atlanta(A)
 loss  Green Bay(H)
 loss  San Francisco(A)
 loss  Chicago(H)
 loss  Minnesota(A)
 loss  Houston(A)
 loss  Washington(H)
 loss  Chicago(A)
 45%  Jacksonville(H)
  2%  Carolina(A)
 35%  Tampa Bay(H)
 15%  Tennessee(H)
 30%  Minnesota(H)
  1%  Indianapolis(A)
 25%  New Orleans(H)
  2%  Green Bay(A)

Green Bay
 win  Minnesota(H)
 win  Detroit(A)
 loss  Dallas(H)
 loss  Tampa Bay(A)
 loss  Atlanta(H)
 win  Seattle(A)
 win  Indianapolis(H)
 loss  Tennessee(A)
 45%  Minnesota(A)
 60%  Chicago(H)
 47%  New Orleans(A)
 55%  Carolina(H)
 70%  Houston(H)
 52%  Jacksonville(A)
 45%  Chicago(A)
 98%  Detroit(H)

Houston
 loss  Pittsburgh(A)
 loss  Tennessee(A)
 loss  Jacksonville(A)
 loss  Indianapolis(H)
 win  Miami(H)
 win  Detroit(H)
 win  Cincinnati(H)
 loss  Minnesota(A)
 55%  Baltimore(H)
 30%  Indianapolis(A)
 50%  Cleveland(A)
 70%  Jacksonville(H)
 30%  Green Bay(A)
 55%  Tennessee(H)
 65%  Oakland(A)
 55%  Chicago(H)

Indianapolis
 loss  Chicago(H)
 win  Minnesota(A)
 loss  Jacksonville(H)
 win  Houston(A)
 win  Baltimore(H)
 loss  Green Bay(A)
 loss  Tennessee(A)
 win  New England(H)
 46%  Pittsburgh(A)
 70%  Houston(H)
 45%  San Diego(A)
 75%  Cleveland(A)
 95%  Cincinnati(H)
 99%  Detroit(H)
 55%  Jacksonville(A)
 65%  Tennessee(H)

Jacksonville
 loss  Tennessee(A)
 loss  Buffalo(H)
 win  Indianapolis(A)
 win  Houston(H)
 loss  Pittsburgh(H)
 win  Denver(A)
 loss  Cleveland(H)
 loss  Cincinnati(A)
 55%  Detroit(A)
 45%  Tennessee(H)
 53%  Minnesota(H)
 30%  Houston(A)
 30%  Chicago(A)
 48%  Green Bay(H)
 45%  Indianapolis(H)
 20%  Baltimore(A)

Kansas City
 loss  New England(A)
 loss  Oakland(H)
 loss  Atlanta(A)
 win  Denver(H)
 loss  Carolina(A)
 loss  Tennessee(H)
 loss  NY Jets(A)
 loss  Tampa Bay(H)
  5%  San Diego(A)
 25%  New Orleans(H)
 25%  Buffalo(H)
 42%  Oakland(A)
 20%  Denver(A)
 30%  San Diego(H)
 30%  Miami(H)
 35%  Cincinnati(A)

Miami
 loss  NY Jets(H)
 loss  Arizona(A)
 win  New England(A)
 win  San Diego(H)
 loss  Houston(A)
 loss  Baltimore(H)
 win  Buffalo(H)
 win  Denver(A)
 85%  Seattle(H)
 85%  Oakland(H)
 35%  New England(H)
 50%  St. Louis(A)
 40%  Buffalo(A)
 80%  San Francisco(H)
 70%  Kansas City(A)
 30%  NY Jets(A)

Minnesota
 loss  Green Bay(A)
 loss  Indianapolis(H)
 win  Carolina(H)
 loss  Tennessee(A)
 win  New Orleans(A)
 win  Detroit(H)
 loss  Chicago(A)
 win  Houston(H)
 55%  Green Bay(H)
 35%  Tampa Bay(A)
 47%  Jacksonville(A)
 58%  Chicago(H)
 70%  Detroit(A)
 35%  Arizona(A)
 60%  Atlanta(H)
 45%  NY Giants(H)

New England
 win  Kansas City(H)
 win  NY Jets(A)
 loss  Miami(H)
 win  San Francisco(A)
 loss  San Diego(A)
 win  Denver(H)
 win  St. Louis(H)
 loss  Indianapolis(A)
 80%  Buffalo(H)
 75%  NY Jets(H)
 65%  Miami(A)
 60%  Pittsburgh(H)
 55%  Seattle(A)
 85%  Oakland(A)
 63%  Arizona(H)
 60%  Buffalo(A)

New Orleans
 win  Tampa Bay(H)
 loss  Washington(A)
 loss  Denver(A)
 win  San Francisco(H)
 loss  Minnesota(H)
 win  Oakland(H)
 loss  Carolina(A)
 win  San Diego(N)
 45%  Atlanta(A)
 75%  Kansas City(A)
 53%  Green Bay(H)
 35%  Tampa Bay(A)
 65%  Atlanta(H)
 35%  Chicago(A)
 75%  Detroit(A)
 50%  Carolina(H)

NY Giants
 win  Washington(H)
 win  St. Louis(A)
 win  Cincinnati(H)
 win  Seattle(H)
 loss  Cleveland(A)
 win  San Francisco(H)
 win  Pittsburgh(A)
 win  Dallas(H)
 49%  Philadelphia(A)
 90%  Baltimore(H)
 60%  Arizona(A)
 49%  Washington(A)
 70%  Philadelphia(H)
 60%  Dallas(A)
 60%  Carolina(H)
 55%  Minnesota(A)

NY Jets
 win  Miami(A)
 loss  New England(H)
 loss  San Diego(A)
 win  Arizona(H)
 win  Cincinnati(H)
 loss  Oakland(A)
 win  Kansas City(H)
 win  Buffalo(A)
 75%  St. Louis(H)
 25%  New England(A)
 25%  Tennessee(A)
 75%  Denver(H)
 55%  San Francisco(A)
 55%  Buffalo(H)
 50%  Seattle(A)
 70%  Miami(H)

Oakland
 loss  Denver(H)
 win  Kansas City(A)
 loss  Buffalo(A)
 loss  San Diego(H)
 loss  New Orleans(A)
 win  NY Jets(H)
 loss  Baltimore(A)
 loss  Atlanta(H)
 20%  Carolina(H)
 15%  Miami(A)
 30%  Denver(A)
 58%  Kansas City(H)
 10%  San Diego(A)
 15%  New England(H)
 35%  Houston(H)
 15%  Tampa Bay(A)

Philadelphia
 win  St. Louis(H)
 loss  Dallas(A)
 win  Pittsburgh(H)
 loss  Chicago(A)
 loss  Washington(H)
 win  San Francisco(A)
 win  Atlanta(H)
 win  Seattle(A)
 51%  NY Giants(H)
 85%  Cincinnati(A)
 60%  Baltimore(A)
 63%  Arizona(H)
 30%  NY Giants(A)
 90%  Cleveland(H)
 45%  Washington(A)
 58%  Dallas(H)

Pittsburgh
 win  Houston(H)
 win  Cleveland(A)
 loss  Philadelphia(A)
 win  Baltimore(H)
 win  Jacksonville(A)
 win  Cincinnati(A)
 loss  NY Giants(H)
 win  Washington(A)
 54%  Indianapolis(H)
 67%  San Diego(H)
 95%  Cincinnati(H)
 40%  New England(A)
 65%  Dallas(H)
 60%  Baltimore(A)
 47%  Tennessee(A)
 90%  Cleveland(H)

San Diego
 loss  Carolina(H)
 loss  Denver(A)
 win  NY Jets(H)
 win  Oakland(A)
 loss  Miami(A)
 win  New England(H)
 loss  Buffalo(A)
 loss  New Orleans(N)
 95%  Kansas City(H)
 33%  Pittsburgh(A)
 55%  Indianapolis(H)
 65%  Atlanta(H)
 90%  Oakland(H)
 70%  Kansas City(A)
 30%  Tampa Bay(A)
 85%  Denver(H)

San Francisco
 loss  Arizona(H)
 win  Seattle(A)
 win  Detroit(H)
 loss  New Orleans(A)
 loss  New England(H)
 loss  Philadelphia(H)
 loss  NY Giants(A)
 loss  Seattle(H)
 10%  Arizona(A)
 53%  St. Louis(H)
 15%  Dallas(A)
 10%  Buffalo(A)
 45%  NY Jets(H)
 20%  Miami(A)
 40%  St. Louis(A)
 35%  Washington(H)

Seattle
 loss  Buffalo(A)
 loss  San Francisco(H)
 win  St. Louis(H)
 loss  NY Giants(A)
 loss  Green Bay(H)
 loss  Tampa Bay(A)
 win  San Francisco(A)
 loss  Philadelphia(H)
 15%  Miami(A)
 45%  Arizona(H)
 45%  Washington(H)
 15%  Dallas(A)
 45%  New England(H)
 40%  St. Louis(A)
 50%  NY Jets(H)
 10%  Arizona(A)

St. Louis
 loss  Philadelphia(A)
 loss  NY Giants(H)
 loss  Seattle(A)
 loss  Buffalo(H)
 win  Washington(A)
 win  Dallas(H)
 loss  New England(A)
 loss  Arizona(H)
 25%  NY Jets(A)
 47%  San Francisco(A)
 35%  Chicago(H)
 50%  Miami(H)
 10%  Arizona(A)
 60%  Seattle(H)
 60%  San Francisco(H)
 20%  Atlanta(A)

Tampa Bay
 loss  New Orleans(A)
 win  Atlanta(H)
 win  Chicago(A)
 win  Green Bay(H)
 loss  Denver(A)
 win  Carolina(H)
 win  Seattle(H)
 loss  Dallas(A)
 win  Kansas City(A)
 65%  Minnesota(H)
 65%  Detroit(A)
 65%  New Orleans(H)
 25%  Carolina(A)
 45%  Atlanta(A)
 70%  San Diego(H)
 85%  Oakland(H)

Tennessee
 win  Jacksonville(H)
 win  Cincinnati(A)
 win  Houston(H)
 win  Minnesota(H)
 win  Baltimore(A)
 win  Kansas City(A)
 win  Indianapolis(H)
 win  Green Bay(H)
 52%  Chicago(A)
 55%  Jacksonville(A)
 75%  NY Jets(H)
 85%  Detroit(A)
 90%  Cleveland(H)
 45%  Houston(A)
 53%  Pittsburgh(H)
 35%  Indianapolis(A)

Washington
 loss  NY Giants(A)
 win  New Orleans(H)
 win  Arizona(H)
 win  Dallas(A)
 win  Philadelphia(A)
 loss  St. Louis(H)
 win  Cleveland(H)
 win  Detroit(A)
 loss  Pittsburgh(H)
 60%  Dallas(H)
 55%  Seattle(A)
 51%  NY Giants(H)
 55%  Baltimore(A)
 75%  Cincinnati(A)
 55%  Philadelphia(H)
 65%  San Francisco(A)

—Ian Allan

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